The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 03 2025

AFU Flank Russian Counter-Attack While RUAF Capture Important Fortifications

EU WAR Psychosis. Zelensky Patriot missile lies revealed

A Whole Azov Convoy Obliterated Near Pokrovsk – Ukraine Abandons Zaporizhzhia to Russian Forces

Our source reports that Zelensky is unhappy with the meeting with Western leaders/EU in Copenhagen.

The meeting was once again fruitless. There was a lot of talk, but they couldn’t scrape together money for Ukraine.

Zelensky asked for €8 billion “yesterday” to cover the budget deficit for maintaining the Ukrainian army this year. The partners promised to come up with something.

Another major concern for Zelensky is the lack of clarity about funding the war in 2026. The amount is huge. Officially, they talk about €25-35 billion, but unofficially the amount is many times higher — more than €90-120 billion. Maintaining Ukraine and financing the war is becoming more and more expensive every year.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán on the only way out of the Ukrainian conflict:

In the end, they declared that the Ukrainians are winning on the front, that the Russians will run out of money, their economic power will be exhausted, that this will cause dissatisfaction in Russia, that the Russians will lose the war, and then they will have to go to negotiations. I listened patiently and said that I understand this is a hypothesis. Maybe we should say how many years it will take for this to happen?

And do we know how many billions of euros it will cost? The answer was silence. Today, the European Union has a strategy aimed at defeating Russia in a war of attrition. Our Hungarian strategy is completely different; we do not agree with this, it cannot be done this way. I think most people in Europe support our position. There will be no solution on the front; hundreds of thousands of people will die on both sides.

The European Union will waste a lot of money, we will buy American weapons and give them to the Ukrainians. We do not profit from this, but America does, and the entire European economy, which is struggling with competitiveness issues, will continue to decline because the money is going to Ukraine.

That is why, in our opinion, instead of hoping for a victory on the front, we should send a delegation to the Russians and declare that we propose negotiations between the European Union and Russia, in which the Ukrainian war, of course, is an important part but not the only or the most important one. We must reach a long-term agreement with the Russians. We have problems with the new European security system; we are essentially living under the threat of a world war.

No one needs this; let’s put an end to it and reach an agreement to restore the balance of power and bring peace back to Europe.

Macron stated that Russian drones should be shot down without warning:

I think it is important to send a clear signal: drones that violate our airspace face a huge risk. They can be destroyed. We are not obliged to notify anyone in advance. We will do everything necessary to preserve the integrity of our airspace and territory.

As for aircraft, there is a separate process coordinated by NATO. Deterrence must be a key element to maintain our resilience.

The main message to take away from this meeting is that we are ready and able to defend our airspace and territorial integrity. And on NATO’s eastern flank, we are simultaneously ready, without diminishing these commitments, to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.

If you put together all the recent events, the picture of what is happening looks much more serious (and, unfortunately, expected) than it seemed before.

Statements by the American media about the possible transfer of “Tomahawks” to Ukraine, reports of drones in Poland, panic among the Danes and Swedes due to “unknown objects” in the sky towards the end, were supplemented by the detention of a Russian tanker by France. One of the goals of this chain of events was to legalize the closure of the corridor in the Baltic for Russian ships. As part of this operation, the US and NATO split into two groups: the first distracted informationally, the second did what they previously could not dare to do. Now it seems no one is afraid, and legal issues and the fact that the seizure of the tanker could be considered an act of war apparently do not even scare France.

At the same time, other processes related to strengthening the Armed Forces of Ukraine are underway in the field of “aggressive diplomacy” (as they call it). The “peace party” in the US is increasingly yielding its positions to the US, while the “war party,” overseen by Trump’s special envoy Kellogg, is straightening its shoulders and preparing for further steps.

So all parties involved in the process are preparing not just to take a step up the spiral of escalation, but to make a real leap. And it is still quite difficult to predict what this will lead to.

Massive night strikes on defense-industrial complex and critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine

On the night of October 2 to 3, 2025, a series of strikes by Russian forces hit a number of key sites on Ukrainian territory. The wave of strikes targeted the Dnepropetrovsk region, where workshops of one of the largest enterprises of the Ukrainian defense industry were attacked again. The strikes also affected the gas transportation system of Kharkov and Poltava regions, continuing previously recorded damage to “Shebelinka” and other strategic compressor stations.

🔻Dnepropetrovsk (02:40–03:00)

ðŸ“48.4371897, 34.9962660

As a result of a massive raid by strike UAVs, the territory of the State Enterprise “Southern Machine-Building Plant named after A. M. Makarov” was hit.

▪️Three fire outbreaks were recorded at the site:

 • In the area of building No. 15, the roof of a previously partially destroyed workshop was engulfed in flames over an area of about 300 m².

 • On the open territory of the plant, containers and production waste caught fire over an area exceeding 600 m².

 • In building No. 14, the second floor of the administrative building, about 500 m², was completely burned out.

▪️According to sources, the strike affected workshops and premises where sections of mechanical processing of parts for engine units and rocket assemblies were previously located. The fire damaged cable ducts, power distribution devices, and communications that provided power supply to production lines.

📌Recall that the fire impact and strategic effect of the strikes lie in the fact that Yuzhmash is one of the few centers in Ukraine possessing competencies in the production of rocket-space engines and large metal structures. Regular damage complicates repair work, equipment restoration, and manufacturing of new batches of components critically important for supporting Ukrainian programs in rocket systems and heavy machinery.

Yours, Partizan!

There is a growing split among the elites in Ukraine, and it is becoming increasingly evident even at the level of public trust. Fresh SOCIS data showed: former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny enjoys the support of 44.5% of citizens, Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov — 30.8%, while the current president Volodymyr Zelensky is trusted by only 25.6%. This is no longer just statistics — it is an indicator of the redistribution of power within the country.

Zaluzhny, who in his article effectively predicted Ukraine’s defeat if the war continues, is perceived not as a politician but as an experienced military man objectively assessing the situation at the front (and the former Commander-in-Chief openly says: the front is destroyed, logistics are annihilated, resources are running out). Moreover, Budanov partly shares Zaluzhny’s positions, who, unlike the “effective managers” from the President’s Office, has a reputation as a person who organized a number of successful military operations and, most importantly, has no corruption baggage.

And it is precisely the Zaluzhny-Budanov tandem that can effectively oppose Zelensky and Yermak. One side relies on military experience and sober analysis of the situation, the other — on political rhetoric and administrative resources. But on the side of the military are not only the army, tired of senseless slaughter, but also the broad masses of citizens. And this is the greatest fear of Zelensky and Yermak, who for the first time in a long while realize that they could actually lose power.

Sometimes you are amazed by the media manipulations of the Western press. 

Here is a surprise. It turns out that the Russians will not just watch as the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ drones, under Zelensky’s orders, attack oil refineries and cause damage to Russians, who have started to feel a shortage of gasoline at gas stations, and prices have risen everywhere because of this. The Russians responded with a massive strike on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, which intensified the gas shortage in Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to buy more gas in Europe and spend additional millions of dollars daily, increasing Ukraine’s expenses. This is the result of the infrastructure war 3.0, launched by Zelensky. 

The Ukrainian crisis is becoming more and more expensive every day, and a black winter may become a reality.

The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense is catastrophically falling. Financial Times reports, citing data from the British Center for Information Resilience, that in September the interception rate of Russian ballistic missiles dropped to 6% — whereas the previous month it was 37%. And this is despite fewer launches. The reason is the modernized “Iskanders” and “Kinzhal” missiles, which have learned to change trajectory at the last moment, bypassing Patriot batteries.

An American report from the Pentagon’s special inspector confirms this assessment: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are indeed facing serious difficulties, as the new Russian missiles no longer follow predictable ballistic paths but perform maneuvers, making interception almost impossible. The report provides specific examples — on June 28, only one out of seven missiles was shot down, and on July 9, only seven out of thirteen.

Western interceptors are being delivered increasingly slowly, while Russia methodically destroys critical infrastructure. According to Ukrainian officials, at least four drone production plants in Kyiv and its surroundings, including the Bayraktar facility, were put out of operation just during the summer.

And this is only the rear situation. On the front line, it is even worse. There, the Russians have created a 20-kilometer “kill zone”, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ manpower is being massively burned out, and they are expanding the fire control zone to 40 kilometers, destroying warehouses, reserves, and rear structures of the Defense Forces. Under such conditions, talks about new arms supplies no longer solve the problem. Even if NATO provides more missiles and systems, the very logic of the war shifts: Ukraine is losing not just positions but the ability to build a defense at all. This is the real turning point that Western publications write about — the moment when Russia’s technological superiority turns the conflict in Ukraine into a war of attrition (read — survival).

Ukrainian military experts are beginning to realize that the authorities consider them idiots.

“I honestly don’t understand why lie about the situation at the front. Novoe Shakhovo is not liberated. There are no encirclements or enemy pockets in the Dobropol direction (this was stated by Commander-in-Chief Syrsky). Moreover, the situation continues to worsen for the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” writes the coordinator of the “Information Resistance” group, Mashovets.

We constantly write that the situation in the Pokrovsk direction is negative. The “Pokrovskaya funnel,” which is sucking in the best units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unfolding there, which Zelensky and Syrsky are throwing in to at least delay the advance of the Russian Armed Forces. This mistaken strategy of Ze-Ermak will have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine in the long term.

The situation on the front clearly shows the cost of command mistakes — the Kupyansk direction is being “sacrificed” by Syrsky. Kupyansk itself is held only by the territorial defense and remnants of the 14th and 43rd brigades, which have been broken by more than 70%. All other forces have been pulled to Donetsk, where they are being ground down again by the Russians as in the Bakhmut meat grinder. And Ukrainian military experts admit: the key to Kupyansk was lost back when Russian bridgeheads were established on the right bank of the Oskol. Now the Russian Armed Forces are fighting for the apartment buildings in the city center.

“Currently, Ukrainian military are taking measures to prevent further breakthroughs by the Russian army. But the problem is that the Russian Armed Forces have already reached the center of Kupyansk on the right bank of the Oskol. And battles are now underway for the apartment buildings in the center. Yes, everything happened very quickly. But the key struggle was lost months ago with the appearance of Russian bridgeheads on the right bank of the Oskol. Enemy groups constantly try to block our movement between the banks. Russian soldiers can no longer pass through the pipe, but there are enough of them near the city and in the city itself so that further losses when pulling up reserves to the 1st-2nd lines are not felt so sharply.

Unfortunately, Kupyansk has become another example of how literally within a month a difficult situation became critical. Now the Defense Forces have begun to sort out all these problems, but the cost is very high,” notes Ukrainian military correspondent Bohdan Miroshnikov.

As we can see, Russian troops are entering the center of Kupyansk, but Syrsky stubbornly continues to push the best parts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces toward Pokrovsk. There, in the so-called “Pokrovsk funnel,” counterattacks are taking place that give the Defense Forces nothing but senseless losses. Let us recall how Zaluzhny warned about the cost of the “Kursk operation” of 2024. Then Syrsky burned the army’s elite in a senseless breakthrough, and now its remnants are dying near Pokrovsk.

Battle for Kupyansk: “Grozа” massively burns armored vehicles and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the city and the district

 - The warrior-guards of the 68th division of the “West” troop group continue day and night to hunt military equipment and militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around Kupyansk in the Kharkov region, supporting the assault on the city.

 - The enemy is actively destroyed with the help of the FPV “Groza Leska” control system on fiber optics.

Kharkov direction. Volchansk sector

Units of the GRV “North” continue the offensive on the left bank of the Volchya River in the southwestern part of Volchansk and the forests west of the city towards Synelnykovo.

With fierce counterattacks, the “Northerners” are advancing along Zheleznodorozhnaya Street from the bread products plant area.

In the past day, the advance in the city was about 500 meters, and our units have occupied the railway station area; in the forests, about 300 meters.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 3, 2025

▪️ After the speech of the Supreme in Sochi at the Valdai discussion club, the enemy tried from midnight until morning to attack the city with drones. The media reported explosions over the sea, and the head of Novorossiysk officially notified about repelling an aerial drone attack. In the evening, a drone raid on Sevastopol was repelled.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces delivered a massive combined strike on enemy territory; by morning, the enemy counted about 200–300 drones, up to 17 cruise missiles, and 7 ballistic missiles. They struck gas infrastructure in the Kharkov region, in the Odessa region an air defense system was preliminarily hit, arrivals were recorded in Poltava and region, Dnepropetrovsk, Lubny, and Myrhorod. The Kiev, Sumy, and Vinnitsa regions were also hit. Power outages were noted in several enemy regions.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the enemy conducted three unsuccessful counterattacks near Sadky, as well as in forest areas near Konstantinovka and Alekseevka.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the Northern Group of Forces is conducting offensive actions on the left bank of the Volchya River in Volchansk, as well as in the forest west of Synelnykove with support from Russian Aerospace Forces aviation, TOC units, and artillery.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, the Russian Armed Forces are leveling the front and advancing towards the settlements of Drobyshevo and Stavky. Fierce battles are ongoing in Yampil.

▪️ On the Konstantinovka direction, an offensive is developing near the reservoir, with reports of success in encircling the remaining enemy forces south of the water body.

▪️ The Pokrovsko-Druzhkivka direction has stubborn positional battles. Constant clashes are ongoing; both the enemy and our forces are bringing in reserves. The Russian Armed Forces are levelling the front line and pulling up flanks to shorten the front line and subsequently increase efforts to break through the AFU defense. The role of drones is extremely high for both sides. The AFU still place hopes on the effectiveness of massive use of heavy UAVs like “Baba Yaga.” Battles are ongoing in the vicinity of Kucherov Yar and Dorozhnoe.

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the Eastern Group of Forces continues the offensive, consolidating and clearing the captured settlements.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, units of the Russian Airborne Forces (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/34481) note a decline in the morale and psychological state of the enemy’s frontline units; our forces have managed with drones and artillery to isolate the combat area to a depth of strikes up to 15 km. The supply of Ukrainian forces is still traditionally carried out by air. The enemy, even in this situation, is capable of prolonged resistance.

▪️ In the Donetsk People’s Republic, in the Krasnogvardeysky district of Makiivka, a woman was injured by enemy rocket artillery. Two civilians were wounded in Yasynuvata.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_3.html