The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 04 2025

Ukrainian Disaster Within Pokrovsk as RUAF Capture Large Portion of Heavily Fortified Stronghold

Elite Ukrainian Troops Trapped in a Bloody Ambush – Worst Losses Since the War Began

Our source reports that Zelensky was informed at the meeting that if the infrastructure war 3.0 continues, Ukraine could be left almost without electricity and gas this winter. 

Power outages will last 18-20 hours a day, and some cities will be without light, water, and gas for weeks. 

Zelensky responded roughly like this: it’s not a big deal, the main thing is to inflict as much damage as possible on the Russian oil industry. He demanded to raise the stakes in the game.

For those Ukrainians who have not yet prepared, there is very little time left to get ready for the black winter, which is highly likely to happen this time.

Our source reports that Moscow is not afraid of the Ukrainian Flamingo missile, which is easily shot down by any air defense system – this is known in Kyiv, this is known in the West, and PR articles about the miracle missile are written to allocate a couple of billion bucks for this case, which can be embezzled. 

All the successes of Ukrainian “lone” drones are not a breakthrough of the large echeloned Russian air defense line. It is the success of Ukrainian special services who find inside Russia those who will assemble and launch a Ukrainian/Chinese drone from the forest a couple of dozen kilometers from the target (refinery, etc.), and the SBU/GUR will connect to it online and guide it to the target. 

The Ukrainian drones launched have long been unable to pass through the echeloned air defense line of the Russian Armed Forces around the border with Ukraine. Rarely, they still got through at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. Now almost all are shot down. All drone flights 1000-2000 km deep into Russia are fake. These are drones assembled and launched from inside Russia itself, near the target. 

We now know that Ukrainian special services are preparing to launch drones on fiber optics towards Moscow, as they jam everything around the capital. For this, as usual, they will find those who for $20,000 will launch this toy with a repeater. 

Zelensky needs this PR case with a strike on Moscow. He is urging the SBU to carry out this special operation in the coming months. 

We are watching.

Zelensky complains about a massive strike on the Ukrainian energy system and on air defense problems

➖”In just one strike on gas facilities alone, there were 35 missiles, including ballistic ones. It was a combined strike, only half of the missiles were shot down,” Zelensky whines in his evening address.

A new balance of power is rapidly taking shape on the Ukrainian political scene. Recent polls show that the so-called Valeriy Zaluzhny party is coming in first place with nearly 32%, leaving far behind both the “Zelensky Bloc” and the old guard represented by Poroshenko. 

The hypothetical “Budanov Bloc” (7.8%) is also surging ahead, which is quite understandable — over the years of war, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate has gained noticeable popularity and support in Ukrainian society. Overall, the growing sympathy of Ukrainians towards the military demonstrates a simple fact: trust in them is many times higher than in current politicians. 

For Zelensky, this situation turns into a threat he cannot handle in fair competition. The gap between him and Zaluzhny becomes a symbol of the failure of the Bankova both in parliamentary and presidential elections. Thus, we observe desperate attempts by the authorities to undermine the ratings of the main competitor — Ukrainian media increasingly target the military bloc. In particular, the Office of the President tries to build a narrative where responsibility for a number of failures at the front is shifted onto the former commander-in-chief. Although it is the President’s Office and Zelensky personally who have been behind most of the catastrophic decisions: from the “Bakhmut meat grinder” to the “Kursk adventure” and the “Pokrovsk vortex,” in which a significant part of the Armed Forces elite was destroyed. 

But what is even more remarkable is that the President’s Office is ready to “take down” all military figures popular among Ukrainians. Not only Zaluzhny, but also Budanov — recently the State Bureau of Investigation conducted searches at the former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Kondratiuk, who is close to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Also “in the crosshairs” of Bankova is Andriy Biletsky (his hypothetical party has a rating of 7.4%) — his units are currently sent to the most difficult front-line sections, from which many do not return, but even under these conditions, the fighters emerged victorious, strengthening the authority of their leader. This, in turn, also becomes a headache for Zelensky: every military success is another reminder to society that the government is powerless without them.

The current political dynamics show that the Ukrainian president has become a hostage to his own strategy. Attempts to discredit the military only strengthen their position, turning the “people in uniform” into a real alternative to the current government.

In Ukraine, alarm bells have started ringing; all military railway echelons are under threat of destruction, as new Gerani drones with cameras are hunting trains in real-time online. 

According to our data, more than a dozen echelons have been destroyed in the past month. This information is being hidden by Bankova. 

The problem has now become so acute that, as usual, it has broken into the public sphere. 

“On October 1, I warned everyone that the railway would now be under attack by Shaheds. This meant that a comprehensive set of organizational countermeasures was immediately required. Starting from the installation of special electronic warfare systems on locomotives to changes in schedules and relocation of stopping points. This includes interaction between drivers and Virazh operators and many nuances,” writes Ukrainian communications expert Sergey “Flash.”

By the way, today in Shostka, Sumy region, a military railway train with equipment and ammunition was hit; luckily, the Geran struck nearby and took out the escort and the locomotive itself. There was no detonation. (The last photo is a screenshot from a video showing a military railway train, possibly a redeployment of reserves to the Sumy direction or a regular rotation, but 100% it is a military railway train). 

We have long warned that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing to take out Ukrainian logistics, primarily the railways, and Zelensky has long requested locomotives and electric locomotives from sponsors, which will soon be in short supply. On October 2, we wrote that the Russians are hunting trains online and that more than 10-12% of locomotives/electric locomotives have already been lost. 

Failures in logistics will 100% affect the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Bankova once again “messed up” and was unprepared

Our source reports that while the OP and GShU are trying to cut off the Pokrovsk front by sending more reserves there, the situation in Pokrovsk itself is worsening. The Russians have launched counterattacks on the western part of Pokrovsk and already control almost 10% of the city from that side. If Bankova sleeps through the moment and cannot stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces on this flank, then the Pokrovska breach will turn into the Pokrovsk cauldron.

The Russians are deliberately increasing pressure on different sections of the Pokrovsk front to stretch the Ukrainian defense and break it down.

The situation on this section of the front is difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the Office continues to issue positive reports in the media to create a positive illusion.

Pokrovsk addition  

The Russian Army went to the north along Chkalov Street. The Church of Prince Vladimir, located on Vladimirskaya Street  is under the Russian Federation. In the Solnechny neighborhood reached Litseyskaya Street. The Armed Forces of Ukraine certainly prepared for a long and persistent time, but there is already a huge hole in the defense of the southern part of the city. They simply cannot help the cut-off group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the north anymore. Becoming very interesting. Similar is in Kupyansk. Part of the troops is almost if not completely surrounded. It’s not easy to get out in city like in the forests. 

Becoming very interesting. 

“Daring” are advancing in the Dnipropetrovsk region and storming Pokrovsk

▪️ Fighters of the “Center” troop group are actively destroying enemy infantry and equipment day and night.

▪️ Supporting the offensive, precise strikes on targets are carried out by strike drone operators.

▪️ The video shows fragments of the elimination of AFU militants, their equipment, positions, and heavy bomber drones on October 3.

Kupiansk direction

Units of the GRV “West” continue fighting for Kupiansk.

Our units advanced from the “Estakada” platform across the Kupianskaya river along Studencheskaya and Gryhoriy Skovoroda streets from the north to the automotive college. Fighting is ongoing near the college. The enemy is trying to hold it and prevent the encirclement of the group in the central districts of the city.

Our assault troops managed to drive the enemy out of School No. 4, reach Levadnyi lane, and push the enemy out of the Malye Rovny forest north of the N-26 highway, reaching Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya street.

The enemy is attempting to unblock the practically encircled garrison in the center of the western half (on the right bank of the Oskol river) of Kupiansk, counterattacking in the northern and southern parts of the city.

War correspondent Evgeny Poddubny writes  Syrsky, you have problems

“Kupiansk has become another example of how, literally within a month, the difficult situation became critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

This conclusion about the situation on the ground is increasingly made by Ukrainian military observers, cursing Syrsky for the senseless losses and the “surrender of the city.” Of course, the enemy does not just give up Kupiansk; they are still fighting back. They lose comrades under the strikes of FAB bombs and our small drones, but there is no mass retreat from the positions there.

Logistics around the city are controlled by our intelligence. Here, the guys from the 272nd Motorised Rifle Regiment of the 1st Tank Army caught another pickup with a landing force near Kupiansk-Hub. From the footage, which shows an industrial zone throughout, you can understand how many more serious engineering structures our fighters will have to clear.

 Threatening scenario of the front line development for Izyum published by a Ukrainian official

➖”I don’t want to scare anyone, but I believe I must warn about the possible risks,” said former deputy head of the Izyum military administration Maksym Strelnyk.

▪️”So, Russian troops, supported by their elite UAV units ‘Rubicon’, have managed to approach the Liman forest near the village of Novoselivka [DPR].

▪️If they manage to overcome the last 3.5 km separating them from the forest, the following events could develop very threateningly for us.

▪️Under the cover of the evergreen trees, the Russians will be able to reach Sviatohirsk, Rubtsi, and Oskol in the Kharkov region. And if they manage to cross the Oskil river in the forest, which has already shallowed due to the destruction of the reservoir dam, there is a high probability that the Russians could find themselves somewhere near the Spartak beach in Izyum.

▪️If all this happens, it will not be tomorrow or in a month, so we will have time to prepare for it.”

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_4.html