The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 09 2025

Russia Pushes DEEP: Kostyantynivka’s Flanks Crumble, Ukrainian Salients Collapsing

RUAF Storm Rodynske North of Pokrovsk

Here comes the analysis from the OP speakers, whose goal is to convince Ukrainians that 2-3 more weeks/months/years of war are needed and Russia’s economy will collapse. Recently, we wrote about the gold and foreign currency reserves of our enemy, which amount to more than 700 billion dollars, including 350 billion in gold.

Remember this statement later when the elections come and this young talent runs in Zelensky’s bloc or as a technical spoiler from Prytula.

Our sources in the OP said that Andriy Yermak specifically demands money from the EU for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and is confident in the success of this track, as in a protracted war and possible peaceful settlement it is important to get resources specifically for the army. In this way, the Head of the OP wants to involve Europe in direct financing of the war and provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with resources if the Trump Administration pushes the peace track. 

Our sources in the Presidential Office revealed that the Office of the President is intensifying an information campaign against Zaluzhny. At Bankova, they decided to weaken Budanov, who refuses to join Zelensky’s political bloc and is negotiating with the former commander-in-chief.

The military are becoming a real threat to Zelensky’s power, which Andriy Yermak understands well. The ratings of Zaluzhny, Budanov, and Biletsky are constantly rising, and the “party” of the former commander-in-chief is ahead of the president’s “party” by almost 13%, creating turbulence in the system.

Zelensky on the fact that “Tomahawks” will help Ukraine “achieve peace”:

I have not received a refusal from Trump to sell “Tomahawk” missiles. The US will work on this issue at a technical level. This is an important signal now – strengthening Ukraine with all possible means. And one of the important ones is the “Tomahawks.” Such things can strengthen Ukraine and make the Russians sober up, sit down at the negotiating table. And if there is a ceasefire, then this very fact will influence the possibility of reaching an agreement later, having a plan.

Our sources in the Presidential Office reported that Andriy Yermak received through intermediaries in Turkey a warning from Russia, in which the Kremlin listed targets in Ukraine for destruction in the resource war. The President’s Office was given a week to stop strikes on Russian critical infrastructure; if the demand is not met, the Kremlin will destroy distribution gas stations in Western Ukraine and the main underground gas storage in Bilche-Volytsko-Uherske, Ladyzhyn and Burshtyn thermal power plants, and strikes on large industrial enterprises will also begin.

Former presidential advisor Arestovich depicts the essence of Ukrainian society in under a minute:

… So… Ukraine is a village. Because the Ukrainian idea is a rural idea, unfortunately. The entire urban culture is Russian-language … With the exception of Lviv, maybe… now you’ve suppressed Russian-language urban culture, so where are your examples of Ukrainian-language urban culture? There are none, unfortunately.

◾️ Arestovich goes on with a funny story about how Ukraine is dominated by villagers mentality, where even the political elites must behave and blend with the rest of the “tribe” to be successful. 

Our source reports that at the latest meeting of the commander-in-chief, Zelensky reprimanded Commander Syrsky, who cannot stop the advance of the Russian Armed Forces. The commander responded that over the year the front line has expanded, the number of hotspots and active directions has increased. If a year ago they had to respond to 1-2 sectors, now there are 5-6 constantly active sectors spanning tens/hundreds of square kilometers, and as soon as reserves are transferred there and the situation stabilizes, a breakthrough occurs in another 5-6 sectors. Meanwhile, the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel is not growing but constantly decreasing, as is the quality of the fighters themselves. 

The morale of the army is not even mentioned, as it is at rock bottom. 

Without increasing the number of personnel, the Russians cannot be stopped. Mobilization needs to be tightened. All staff and office personnel are already saying this, but they all agree that the situation cannot be changed overall. Even tightening mobilization will only delay the process of catastrophe, which will happen suddenly at some point.

In the Kucherov Yar area for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the situation remains extremely tense. Ukrainian troops continue attempts to cut off Russian units holding positions in this section of the front, but they have not been able to achieve operational success.

At the same time, Russian forces are advancing towards Shakhove, trying to encircle Ukrainian units located in this settlement. The front line configuration indeed allows such maneuvers, making the situation difficult and potentially dangerous for the AFU.

Despite statements by Syrsky and Zelensky claiming the situation is supposedly stabilized, the actual dynamics of the fighting show otherwise. According to open sources and analytical reports, for almost two months Ukrainian forces have failed to eliminate the Russian salient — relatively small in size, about 6 km wide and 10 km deep. Moreover, holding Shakhove increasingly resembles a struggle for a highly inconvenient and vulnerable section of the front.

While the Ukrainian command considers holding this area necessary to prevent the enemy’s bridgehead from expanding, such a decision carries high risks. The potential loss of Shakhove could lead to Russian troops gaining more stable positions for further advances westward — towards Konstantinovka and deeper into Ukrainian defenses.

The AFU command apparently recognizes these risks and continues to hold Shakhove despite heavy losses. And this is Syrsky’s whole approach — not for the first time he “burns” infantry in frontal battles instead of strategic withdrawal. This was the case with Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Ugledar, and in the Kursk region, where over 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers fell in battles, and now the situation is repeating in the “Pokrovsk funnel” and in the Dobropillia area.

Breakthrough to Konstantinovka: The Russian Army is fighting on the approaches to the city, storming Predtechino, Pleshcheevka, and Ivanopolye!

▪️Russian troops are advancing on the Konstantinovka direction, confidently moving forward.

▪️Our assault units have begun fighting for Predtechino.

▪️The Russian Armed Forces have also advanced east of Ivanopolye.

▪️Our units are conducting attacks north of Aleksandro-Kalinovo.

❗️The total area of advances is up to 9 km².

▪️Yesterday, enemy sources acknowledged that “the Russian army has secured the area of the ravine west of the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. Russian troops’ attacks continue along the forest belts towards the forest plantation and Predtechino. The Russians are also breaking through to a stronghold on the southeastern outskirts of Ivanopolye.”

The “Daring” are advancing in the Dnepropetrovsk region and storming Pokrovsk

▪️ Fighters of the “Center” troop group are actively destroying enemy infantry and equipment day and night.

▪️ Supporting the offensive, precise strikes on targets are carried out by strike drone operators.

▪️ The video shows fragments of the elimination of militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, NATO and other equipment, positions, and heavy bomber drones on October 8.

The Russian army is redeploying 4 brigades from near Pokrovsk to advance on Dnepropetrovsk region, — analysts (https://x.com/WarUnitObserver/status/1975915989284892740)

▪️The Russian Armed Forces are moving troops to strengthen the offensive on Dnepropetrovsk region, — Kiev sources write citing OSINT analysts Unit Observer.

▪️4 motorized rifle brigades of the “Center” group of forces: 35th, 55th, 74th, and 137th are reportedly simultaneously redeployed closer to Novopavlivka. Previously, they were based south of Pokrovsk, the enemy sources note.

Attacks near Kupyansk

On the Kupyansk front, Russian troops are engaging in small-group battles on the western bank of the Oskol River. Localized attacks are reported near Kamenka, Dvorechnaya, and Doroshevka, while the main events remain focused in Kupyansk.

Fighting continues in the city. Information is contradictory: earlier reports indicated almost full control of Russian forces over the central and northern parts of the city, as well as the formation of a cauldron in the western part of Kupyansk.

🔻What else is known?

▪️Valery Gerasimov stated yesterday that fighting is already taking place in the south of Kupyansk. This information has not yet been confirmed by footage from objective control sources, but it is worth noting that the entire direction is generally poorly covered by objective footage — both from Russian and Ukrainian sources. The “fog of war” in this case plays into the hands of the Russian troops.

▪️To the southeast of Kupyansk, the opponent still holds a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskol. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense here is based on settlements on the eastern bank — Kurilovka, Kovsharovka, Podoly, as well as previously prepared fortifications. So far, it has not been possible to drive the enemy out of there.

Here, the Ukrainian grouping relies heavily on crossings, which are systematically targeted by Russian aviation strikes. Food supplies can be partially delivered by drones, but delivering ammunition is a much more complicated issue.

▪️Russian troops are advancing near Stepovaya Novoselovka. The settlement itself remains in the “gray zone,” but to the north, Russian assault units have managed to advance.

📌The situation across the entire front largely depends on the outcome of the battles for Kupyansk. When the city is liberated, the fate of the enemy’s bridgehead on the eastern bank will be sealed: there will no longer be any point in holding it. The only question is how many Ukrainian forces will be able to evacuate and preserve from there.

Another point is that these forces were initially small: supply problems did not start yesterday, and the enemy is well aware of this.

Significant progress of Russian forces is noted in the Kupyansk direction. Over the past two weeks, assault units have advanced into the urban area and reached positions from which it is possible to encircle the remaining Ukrainian units on the northern outskirts. Assault groups have also secured the southwestern part of the city, expanding the control zone and occupying several residential blocks.

Advancement continues towards the southeast bypassing the Yubileyny district, creating a threat of reaching the southern approaches to the city. In the east, the situation is developing dynamically: Russian units have broken through the enemy defense in the central part and, presumably, reached the area of the bridge over the Oskol.

There are also reports of the capture of the city administration and several key facilities in the center. There is information about Russian units entering the market south of the highway, but there is no confirmation of stable control there yet.

The chances of local encirclement of Ukrainian Armed Forces groups in Kupyansk have significantly increased and are now above average: the estimated probability of a “cauldron” for certain Ukrainian units is about 60–75%.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 9, 2025

🗞 Trump🇺🇸 was once again twisted and started talking about a “coming resolution in Ukraine”🇺🇦, although the Russian Foreign Ministry🇷🇺 declared the potential for a meeting in Anchorage🇺🇸 exhausted. Zelensky publicly agreed with the head of the SBU on “asymmetric responses to the Russian war,” clearly referring to terrorist acts and sabotage. EU ambassadors🇪🇺 agreed on a plan to ban imports of Russian gas and oil starting in 2028, despite objections from Hungary🇭🇺 and Slovakia🇸🇰. The latter, by the way, although suffering from the destruction of pipelines to themselves by Kiev, do little besides talking. In Europe, artificial hysteria continues about “Russian drones,” with German 🇩🇪 lawmakers in the process of approving police rights to open fire on UAVs violating Germany’s airspace.

▪️ At night in the Kursk region, grass caught fire on an area of 500 sq. m. in Kurchatov due to the fall of a Ukrainian drone. At least 4 UAVs were destroyed over the Voronezh region. From evening until midnight, the Ministry of Defense reported a total of 27 drones shot down over the Rostov, Voronezh, Kursk, and Belgorod regions.

▪️ In Odessa, a container terminal at the Illichivsk (Chornomorsk) port (https://t.me/odessa_typical/63490) caught fire at night, with reports of secondary detonations. At least 20 “Geran-2” drones were used in the region.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, Ukrainian forces shelled the village of Khinel in the Sevsky district with mortars, injuring 9 civilians.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in Sergievka, a man was injured as a result of a Ukrainian drone detonation on private property. Shebekino, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Murom, Surkovo, Gora-Podol, Khotmyzhsk, Glotovo, Tishanka, Plotvyanka, Borisovka, Zozuli, and Chaiki were hit. The village of Maslova Pristan in the Shebekino district was subjected to a missile attack. Preliminary data indicate three dead and one injured. The population is officially advised to stock up on electricity and heat generation means.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, our troops are conducting offensive operations on several fronts, trying to level the front and eliminate pockets near Shandrigolovo, Drobyshevo, Kolodezi, Kirovsk (Zarechny).

▪️ Pressure by Russian forces continues towards Seversk. The enemy noted activity of our actions along the railway near Vyemka in the past day.

▪️ North of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Mirnograd, reports indicate success of Russian forces in Zolote Kolodez and the settlement of Volne. Fighting continues in Pokrovsk itself. North of Udachne, our assault troops are breaking through to the mine.

▪️ In the northeast of the Zaporozhye region, the Vostok battalion liberated Novohryhorivka. Near Poltavka, the enemy’s situation is rapidly deteriorating. The Uspenivka bridgehead of Ukrainian forces—a large and fortified settlement—is being isolated.

▪️ From the Zaporozhye front, the Paratrooper’s Diary (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika) reports heavy fighting in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk. On the Huliaipole sector, our troops are approaching Okhotnychyi, with fierce combat ongoing.

▪️ In the Kherson region, two buildings caught fire in Zheleznyi Port due to shelling, with three people killed. The enemy shelled Hornostaivka, Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Zabarino, Zavodivka, Kairy, Korsunka, Kakhovka, Nova Kakhovka, Novi Laheri, Rayske, and Tavriisk.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_9.html