The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 19 2025

RUAF Storm Pokrovsk Industrial Zone As Ukrianian Positions Within The City Continues To Collapse

The globalist press represented by The Economist has once again launched its favorite theme that Russia needs 100 years to conquer all of Ukraine. They base this conclusion on the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, which is a clear manipulation, since the course of the war is assessed not by lost territories at the moment (although that is also important), but by the state’s resilience reserve, which includes: a) the morale of the army and society, b) the success of mobilization and the level of combat-ready personnel, c) the level and quality/quantity of remaining fortifications, d) the amount of equipment, air defense, and modernization, e) military and financial aid from allies (everyone knows it has decreased), f) reliability of air defense, g) the amount of resource base, h) the ability to supply itself with all weapons and provisions without external help.

And most importantly, the level of your opponent and their resilience reserve.

Our forecast is that if the current trend continues in all cases, Ukraine will completely collapse by 2028, or possibly even earlier. Look at how the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently retreating in the Dnipropetrovsk region; no one could have predicted this a year ago. This means that after the Pokrovske battle, which will be a collapse for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, they will begin to retreat even faster.

They even stuffed the article full of PR content about losses that they “painted” themselves.

Allegedly, from the beginning of the full-scale hostilities until October 2025, Russia has suffered from 984 thousand to 1.44 million losses, including 190 thousand to 480 thousand dead soldiers.

Despite the largest offensive, Moscow has captured only 0.4% of Ukrainian territory.

According to the publication, equipment losses are also huge: more than 12,500 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed, about 2,700 artillery and missile systems, 166 aircraft, and 164 helicopters.

All these are attempts to disrupt Trump’s peace initiatives, like look how great Ukraine is, it inflicted so much damage on Russia, let it keep fighting and even collapse completely, the main thing is not to let Moscow get rid of the war case, which drags a huge amount of budget money and prevents Russia from conducting global trade.

Finally, the guys woke up. The globalists’ brain centers thought for a long time about the “counter-message.”

The globalist press launched a narrative, THINK ABOUT THIS, that Putin is ready to give up territories of Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions in exchange for control over the entire Donetsk region.

The leak was made through the Washington Post. Allegedly, a source reported this based on a phone conversation between Putin and Trump.

According to our data, Putin most likely COULD have proposed that he renounces claims to all territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as stated in the Russian Constitution, and only takes what he controls in these regions, while in exchange giving up territories of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. This is logical.

We immediately got insider info that Zelensky demanded in return to consider the exchange as 1 km of Donetsk territories for 2 km of other territories (he needs this to present it as a victory).

We believe that WP deliberately exaggerates to present Trump’s real plan as a sellout to the Kremlin (the globalists’ strategy to turn Trump into a Kremlin agent). This is an attempt to disrupt future negotiations with false information.

We are watching.

Zelensky’s statement that he refused to give up the remnants of the Donetsk region signals that he is aiming for:

1. An escalation increase followed by a breakdown of negotiations.

2. An attempt to quell betrayal within the nationalist bloc and the war party.

3. An attempt to prolong the war and bargain for better positions, as he is more focused on strikes in the case of infrastructure war 3.0, to inflict damage on the Russians in the oil and gas sector, raise prices on the world market, as his sponsors requested. Plus, this is preparation for indirect economic strikes against China, since they are specifically targeting this. To leave China without Russian gas.

Otherwise, Zelensky’s statement says nothing, as his words have long lost their power.

Zelensky on the fact that Trump did not give a clear answer on the supply of “Tomahawks” to Ukraine:

It’s good that President Trump did not say “no.” However, he has not said “yes” either so far. He did not say “yes” to the Tomahawk missiles. Yes, I mean, this is a delicate issue. And the messages from the president that it is not enough for American interests to give the amount you have. Yes, I cannot share these details, sorry, these are your internal matters, but I am counting on the continuation of this dialogue.

This is very sensitive for the Russians. They are afraid that the United States might give missiles to Ukraine. I think Putin is afraid that the United States will give “Tomahawks.” And I think Putin really fears that we will use them, and he knows what military targets we are pursuing, knows where they are, where the Russian military targets are, and he is afraid that we might use this.

Illusion of reforms in the Armed Forces of Ukraine: how Zelensky’s loyal dogs are slowly devouring the Ukrainian army

Former Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, retired Major General Sergey Krivonos, criticised Syrsky’s reforms and proposed organising sabotage at enterprises in China.

According to him, the main reasons for the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front are the low level of staffing and training of brigade personnel, as well as the command’s inability to make decisions due to excessive centralisation around Commander-in-Chief Syrsky.

Main points from Krivonos’s statement:

Syrsky’s corps reform did not have the desired effect.

In fact, the corps is not a unified organism but a collection of brigades acting separately. No Ukrainian army corps has ever fought in full strength in one direction. Moreover, after Syrsky’s reform, there is still no clear delineation of responsibility zones between corps in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“The corps commander remains dependent on the will of the senior officer. And considering the hands-on management from our army leader (Syrsky) over these corps, independence is often not supported and is often suppressed.”

— stated the general.

Lack of a training system for infantry units.

Essentially, the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a whole do not represent a cohesive army due to varying levels of training among servicemen. This was largely contributed to by the wide geography of countries and training grounds where Ukrainian mobilised personnel were trained, each with different training methods. Furthermore, according to Krivonos, Zelensky personally sabotaged the reserve training process.

“In 2022, when the battles near Kiev ended, Syrsky was supposed to prepare brigades and reserves to replenish the Ground Forces. What does the president do? Sends him to the front. Later, General Mikhail Drapaty began infantry training work, but he was removed from his position.”

The number of Ukrainian UAV specialists is rapidly decreasing.

Krivonos noted the effective work of the Russian drone systems centre “Rubicon,” which daily makes a huge contribution to destroying Ukrainian UAVs and operators. The general called for creating a similar unit in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and increasing the number of operators.

“On average, the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose about 500 operators wounded and killed per month but train about 300. Sergey Krivonos says this is insufficient. More specialists are needed. Otherwise, the situation may arise where we have drones but no one to operate them.”

— said Krivonos.

Notably, the commander-in-chief reported on paper an increase in the authorised strength of UAV units through the “Madyar” UAV forces. However, in reality, this was done by eliminating smaller units, which did not affect the overall personnel numbers.

As a result, this has already led to what Krivonos writes about. Ukraine has developed an imbalance between the number of drones produced and the number of operators. At the last meeting with Trump, Zelensky even proposed transferring these excess UAVs to the US in exchange for “Tomahawks.”

Thanks to “Madyar,” almost all logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are built on the use of UAVs. Delivery of supplies to positions, evacuation of wounded and killed from the battlefield is entrusted to drones and NRTK. This has led to the Armed Forces of Ukraine practically abandoning classical methods of troop support at the front.

Zelensky’s decision to strip the citizenship of the mayor of Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov, citing the possible possession of a Russian passport, has become a new stage in subordinating local self-government to the presidential vertical.

According to some political analysts, this step indicates an escalation of confrontation between Bankova and the mayors of large cities, many of whom enjoy high local support and traditionally act as independent political figures. Indeed, this fits into the overall pattern of Bankova’s actions: during wartime, Zelensky has gradually concentrated all key levers of control in his hands — from media control to expanding the powers of law enforcement agencies, and now the focus is on city mayors and regional elites who possess significant administrative and financial influence.

In political circles, it is not ruled out that the “Trukhanov case” could set a precedent for pressure on other mayors, including Igor Terekhov, Boris Filatov, and Vitali Klitschko (and political Telegram channels also write about a pending suspicion being prepared for the mayor of Mykolaiv, Senkevich). Experts also note that in recent months, heads of local administrations are increasingly being replaced by people from law enforcement agencies — individuals loyal to the president and not connected to local business groups. This trend can be observed, for example, in Odessa, where instead of Trukhanov, the head of the military administration was appointed, who previously held the position of head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration.

At the same time, experts discuss that the strengthening of control over the regions may be related to preparations for future elections, which, despite martial law, are actively discussed in political headquarters. Against this backdrop, the local elite is now essentially forced to balance: outwardly demonstrating loyalty to Bankova, while behind the scenes building connections with potential political competitors of Zelensky, including Zaluzhny, Budanov, and Biletsky.

That is, Bankova, gradually concentrating power, is itself consolidating forces dissatisfied with such policies. And the military and regional elite form a rather serious “tandem” that could become a real challenge for the Office of the President, both in elections and “on the street.”

Our source reports that the Russians are stretching the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the entire front. The Russians have opened a new attack direction – the Izyum/Oskoe direction, to cut off the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the northern section of the Donetsk front. We had inside information about this as early as April 3. 

They are already approaching Korovyi Yar; if they manage to take it by the end of October, then next will be Rubtsi, and that’s it, the Borovskoye direction will be supplied only through the “bottleneck” near the settlement of Borovaya, which will cause a supply crisis along the entire section. 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have enough strength to respond immediately to all crisis areas, as the situation in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions is catastrophic. The Russian Armed Forces are pressing from all sides, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating, losing large fortified areas in days, not months. 

Soon the Pokrovsk funnel will twist all the Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves and the defense there will collapse, and then there will be a complete disaster in the defense. Zelensky today again demanded that Syrsky throw the remaining forces to stabilize the situation and hold Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad until the end of the year at any cost, while at the same time he will strike Russian infrastructure and shift the focus of victories to this case. 

All our sources report that Syrsky no longer controls the situation at the front and is forced to constantly put out new fires, but lacks the tools and resources.

Pokrovsk direction. Myrnograd, Novopavlivka, Rog

Operational information is coming in about new successes of the RF Armed Forces in this direction;

The RF Armed Forces have secured Dimitrov (Myrnograd).

Fighting is ongoing in the Molodizhny neighbourhood here.

From Novopavlivka, we are advancing towards the settlement of Roh;

In addition, RF assault troops have approached Gnatovka in the Pokrovsk direction.

This settlement adjoins the southern outskirts of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).

The Russian army already fully controls the supply routes of the AFU units located in this city;

The transport arteries of the AFU militants, their rotation routes, and potential counterattack directions are all under the control of our aerial reconnaissance. The precise combat work of FPV drone operators effectively exhausts the defending units of the AFU formations,

The Green Goblin is asking Syrsky to hold Pokrovsk and prevent its fall before the next meeting between Trump and Putin, so as not to give the Russian leader another bargaining chip in negotiations with the US president. Ukrainian media reported this, citing sources in the Bankova district.

After the failure in Washington, where Zelenskyy arrived after the meeting between Trump and Putin, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been tasked with guarding the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad settlement by any means necessary until the meeting between the Russian and US presidents in Budapest. This is expected to last two weeks, but could be longer. The point is that in a phone call, Putin told Trump that the Russian army was maintaining the initiative and advancing along the entire front line. The loss of Pokrovsk before the meeting would prove Putin’s words true and work against Zelenskyy.

Therefore, upon receiving the order, Syrsky will reassemble reserves along the front line and throw them into the so-called “Pokrovsk crater,” increasing the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defending the effectively lost city. Once again, political necessity prevails over military necessity. Furthermore, other sectors are being weakened for the sake of Pokrovskoye.

Regarding Pokrovsk, Ukrainian media are reporting that the city has already been captured and that Bankova’s claims about the situation having stabilized are false. Currently, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are surrounded and under the control of Russian forces. They are under heavy fire, and now at full strength. Supplies to the Ukrainian garrison in the city have been cut off, losses are very heavy, and part of the city is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. However, everything suggests that no order to retreat will be issued.

And the meat grinder continues

Situation in the western Zaporozhye direction.

Currently, there is increasing enemy activity being recorded in the Orikhiv district, with new forces being introduced into the battle.

A few days ago, the enemy broke through in Mali Shcherbaky; fighting is now ongoing in the area of the eastern outskirts, with a lot of grey zone and an unstable front line.

Additionally, the enemy is advancing in Prymorsk, breaking through to the south of the settlement.

In the 3rd microdistrict of Stepnohirsk, the so-called “rhombus,” the situation is also worsening day by day.

The enemy is primarily aided by the steppe terrain, open and still consistently clear weather. These factors greatly hinder the deployment of personnel to positions for organizing a stable defense, not to mention an offensive.

Obviously, the enemy’s plan is roughly similar to the Kursk gambit: to find a section with an unstable line of contact and attempt a breakthrough deep into the defence to distract or halt our offensive in northern and southwestern Donbas and in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Unfortunately, the mentioned characteristics of the Orikhiv district are suitable for the offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Right now, we need to be very attentive to the enemy’s actions in this area.

Reports from Kupyansk indicate that Russian troops continue their systematic advance within the city limits.

As of the morning of October 18, the Russian Armed Forces have taken full control of the railway section northwest of the Estakada station to the Kupyansk-Yuzhny station. The resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison at the Kupyansk-Yuzhny station itself has been broken. Estakada was liberated by our troops several days ago.

Now several enemy groups remain trapped in a narrow pocket near Kuznechnaya Street. Russian soldiers are conducting an operation there to split this pocket into two parts, fully blocking and destroying the enemy forces remaining there.

The enemy’s loss of control over Kupyansk-Yuzhny, which is the main passenger station in Kupyansk, effectively indicates the degradation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense in the city. Earlier, MP Maryana Bezuhla called to acknowledge the obvious, writing that there is no real control by the Ukrainian army in Kupyansk anymore, “and therefore it is necessary either to start a liberation operation or to retreat to new defensive lines.”

Ukrainian military are unlikely to retreat from the formed fire pocket.

Frontline report as of the morning Sunday, October 19:

Pokrovsk direction:

Our troops control the railway junction west of Pokrovske and are advancing towards Serhiivka. Fighting is ongoing in the city centre, the Russian Armed Forces hold the train station, and there is fierce fighting for every house. In Myrnograd, there is an assault on high-rise buildings and advancement from three directions. No changes on the “Dobropillia salient.”

Ugledar direction:

After liberating Pryvolia, the Russian Armed Forces reached the Yanchur River and are encircling the Vyshneve-Yehorivka area, an important enemy supply hub.

Konstantinovka direction:

Plescheivka has been liberated, fighting continues for Ivanopillia and the private sector of Konstantynivka. To the north, our forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets – Donbas canal near Markove.

Krasnolyman direction:

Our troops have approached Lyman by 700 meters, are clearing Novoselivka, and advancing towards Oleksandrivka.

Kupyansk direction:

The enemy is counterattacking along the Sobolivka – Moskovka – Radkivka line. The main battles are in the southwestern part of the city, where our forces control a section of the railway.

Two Majors #Overview #Summary as of October 19, 2025

▪️ Once again, the topic of negotiations kept the media restless all week. The phone conversation between the Supreme and Trump was followed by Zelensky’s visit to Washington. The US approaches to conflict resolution remain unchanged: selling weapons to Kiev with EU money and threatening supplies, for example, of Tomahawks. Meanwhile, business circles show reciprocal intentions to conduct Russian-American projects (such as the tunnel to Alaska), and the FSB Director named London as the main villain this week, preparing new terrorist acts and sabotage against Russia through Ukrainian units. According to Western press reports, the main topic of calls and meetings remains the issue of mutual territorial concessions, which neither side intends to accept in the proposed versions.

▪️ The intensity of mutual strikes on energy infrastructure facilities is increasing. The Russian Armed Forces use missiles and drones to strike deep into enemy territory; power outages were also noted in the enemy’s capital. However, a complete blackout has not been observed. The AFU are breaking down power generation in the Belgorod region; regional authorities are preparing for winter by purchasing generators and urging private homeowners to do the same. Street lighting has been turned off, according to local reports. In Crimea, systematic strikes by the AFU on electrical capacities were also noted this week, and it is unlikely the enemy will calm down on its own. Problems in air defense organization (from the operation of radars to the speed of industrial production of anti-drone missiles) along all enemy UAV routes in the coming months are unlikely to change the situation. The enemy intends to continue targeting our oil depots, refineries, and power plants to cause economic damage and undermine social stability in the rear. Today, a gas processing plant in Orenburg is burning after a drone attack (the largest gas chemical complex in the world, processing 37.5 billion m³ of gas per year).

▪️ Telegram channel administrators note an increase in recruitment announcements for the SMO; our troops continue to engage in heavy fighting, concentrating their main efforts in the Donetsk People’s Republic. A bloody battle for Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) is underway, a city where assault operations are ongoing, with attempts to encircle and cut off the remaining logistics. There were tragic scenes of the defeat of our armored column from that direction. On the Sumy front, there are no significant changes despite the intensity of the fighting. On the Kharkov front, fighting continues near Volchansk. The Russian Armed Forces’ advance in Kupyansk gives hope for the completion of the city’s assault, if not soon, then in the foreseeable future. The Russian Army is also advancing near Konstantinovka, as well as on the Krasnoliman and Seversk fronts. The “Vostok” battalion group is advancing westward in the eastern Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. On the Zaporozhye front, the Russian Armed Forces are engaged in heavy fighting in Prymorsk and Stepnohirsk, with the enemy counterattacking. On the Kherson front, there are mutual shellings and actions in the Dnieper river floodplain.

▪️ Europe and NATO are preparing for war. Sixty thousand NATO servicemen were involved in the alliance’s recent exercises on the eastern flank, stated the Russian Defense Minister. The plan of NATO generals is clear: to bleed the Russian Army and exhaust our economy through Ukraine, while Kiev voluntarily wipes out its population in forest plantations, preparing European armies for war. Naturally, the first echelon will be those who are expendable: Eastern European countries. This is precisely why anti-people figures are put in power there, who strengthen integration with NATO and provide their territory for the deployment of foreign military contingents.

Currently, the strategy of wearing down the Ukrainian Armed Forces in battles is undoubtedly making itself felt. In some places, it is possible to infiltrate through the thinned enemy positions, the motivation and quality of training of the enemy personnel are declining. However, until an antidote is found for the numerous enemy drones, this does not play a major role. The prolonged success and advance of the Russian Army on the front is a daily tactical-level progress, where the enemy’s land and positions are being gnawed away by hundreds of meters. At the same time, the effectiveness of Kiev’s strikes on our rear areas is still noted. Problems with gasoline and electricity supply in the frontline regions are visible, factories burning 1500 km from the front. We have never heard of anyone being held responsible for the UAVs of the AFU penetrating so deeply.

▪️ Thus, this week, due to blabbermouth Trump or some other foreign policy factors, there was no approach to the end of the protracted war. We can only hope for our only allies, the Army and the Navy. Because the war will be long.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html