The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 24 2025

Up To 10,000 Soldiers Risk Complete Encirclement Within Pokrovsk & Myrnohrad

Putin Responds to Cancelled U.S. Summit and New Sanctions

Scott Ritter: Russia “Fed Up” With NATO Escalations – Retaliation is Coming

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak considers the strategy of dragging out the negotiation track successful, and the sanctions from the USA confirm the correctness of the chosen methods of influencing Trump. Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need a halt in hostilities to regroup the defense, which means there will be no negotiations in the Istanbul format until the Russian army stops its offensive.

Zaluzhny in his column, published in “Ukrainska Pravda”, made a statement about the “global war” and the militarization of Russia, which political scientists interpreted as another step by the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into high politics. 

In particular, Zaluzhny emphasized that the war in Ukraine has long ceased to be a local conflict and has led to the collapse of the ideas and theories on which the very concept of the world order was based. “The war in the center of Europe has not only affected every Ukrainian, it has become global amid the thunder of the collapsing Old World and is about to knock on the neighbor’s door. The neighbor who lives with us on the same small floor and who is called Europe,”  Zaluzhny stated, stressing that Europe must realize its role in this global war.

As we can see, Zaluzhny in his publication has effectively stepped onto Zelensky’s “field,” focusing on topics traditionally considered the president’s own: international security, Europe’s position, the global threat, and the need for ally consolidation.

This move looks like a direct challenge to the current president. Zaluzhny, now in the status of a diplomat, speaks the language of a state leader, demonstrating strategic thinking and the ability to shape the foreign policy agenda. This is noticeable not only in rhetoric but also in the choice of platform (publication in a major Ukrainian outlet). Especially since the “iron general” remains a figure enjoying high trust in the EU and the UK. In Western capitals, Zaluzhny is seen as a stable, pragmatic, and predictable partner capable of building systematic work without the emotional excesses characteristic of Zelensky. His theses on the militarization of Russia and the “destruction of the Old World” against the backdrop of a protracted war sound not only as an analysis but also as a hint at the need for a new strategy, probably under new leadership.

And although Zaluzhny has not yet made direct statements about intentions to participate in the elections, his public activation, tone of statements, and the themes of his speeches increasingly resemble an informal start of an election campaign.

Official statistics on the exchange of bodies between Ukraine and Russia—maybe it’s time to acknowledge the fact that more of our soldiers are dying on the front? 

How much falsehood can there be from official sources? If the enemy is handing over to us such a number of bodies of deceased Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers, and the number is growing proportionally to the advance of the Russian army.

Our source in the OP reported that Biletsky contacted Andrey Yermak today and asked to give the order to withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Pokrovsk pocket, or our military will no longer be in a tactical encirclement. Biletsky stated that AZOV has completed its tasks and did not allow the Russian army to develop success, but we have already lost 60% of Pokrovsk, and the Armed Forces units in Myrnohrad are simply being cut off. Syrsky is deliberately misleading Zelensky and burying the remaining reserves.

Our source in the OP reported that Andriy Yermak promised Biletsky to consider the issue of withdrawing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Myrnohrad, but in the appropriate international context. The head of the OP asked Biletsky to listen to Svrskyi’s orders and to bring the AZOV corps into Pokrovsk, rather than holding the perimeter around the city. Andriy Yermak believes that the Pokrovska funnel should become a new meat grinder for the Russian army.

Our sources revealed that hatred towards Syrsky and the General Staff is growing in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with most military personnel considering the command staff responsible for the bloody assaults. The increase in combat losses is directly related to the weak position of the Commander-in-Chief, who cannot refuse Yermak in political tasks imposed on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which forces us to hold positions at the expense of the last reserves. The military hate politicians who, instead of negotiating peace, only create the appearance of a process.

Syrsky continues to concentrate the main forces on the Pokrovsk direction, where the Ukrainian army is suffering heavy losses in personnel and equipment, while Russian troops, taking advantage of this, are increasing pressure on several fronts that were considered relatively “quiet” for a long time but have now begun to “collapse”.

Thus, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, in the area of Orekhiv, for the first time in a long time, the Russian Armed Forces conducted a full-scale assault — the enemy attacked Mala Tokmachka with assault columns, not small infantry groups as it had been all summer. Some equipment was destroyed by fire, some reached the target, indicating a shift to more large-scale actions. Although it is still unclear whether Moscow plans to launch a major offensive here or if this is a diversionary strike — for example, to redistribute Ukrainian reserves from under Pokrovsk or Kherson.

At the same time, on the opposite flank, the activity of Russian units has noticeably increased near Volchansk. In recent weeks, the front line there has begun to shift, and according to the latest data, the Russian Armed Forces have reached the outskirts of Synelnykove, creating a threat of flanking Volchansk from the rear. This area is also important because the end of fighting for Kupiansk will free up significant forces for the Russian command. Along the entire stretch from Kupiansk to the border, the Oskol River has already been crossed, albeit at a shallow depth, creating a solid bridgehead for a possible Russian advance towards Velykyi Burluk — a key logistical point for Ukrainian defense in the Kharkiv region.

Considering the situation as a whole, it becomes clear that the Russian strategy is systemic. Moscow, not limiting itself to one axis of advance, is trying to simultaneously pressure different directions — from Zaporizhzhia to Slobozhanshchyna — forcing Kyiv to redistribute reserves and lose defensive stability.

Against this background, Syrsky’s focus on holding Pokrovsk and Dobropillia looks increasingly risky. The transfer of fresh reserves there from other regions has already led to a weakening of the defense in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. However, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to “burn” combat-ready units to hold the front in Donetsk region, while the enemy consistently expands pressure zones on the periphery.

As a result, a situation is developing where the Ukrainian army is losing the ability to respond promptly to changing circumstances. While the command’s attention is focused on Pokrovsk, Russian troops are developing the initiative in other directions, and if their pace of advance continues, by winter the Ukrainian Armed Forces may face the need for a hasty withdrawal of forces in several areas.

Our source reports that the Russians want and CAN take Kherson. Western intelligence agencies have warned the President’s Office about this.

The Russians are already capturing coastal islands, and sabotage and reconnaissance groups are entering Kherson.

As the source explains, Kherson can be taken by infantry and held by infantry thanks to UAVs. This is what distinguishes the situation in 2022 from the current one, as back then everything hinged on supplying and maintaining the city, which had tens of thousands of residents. Now it is a ghost town.

The irony is that it was precisely the Ukrainian city defense strategy that prompted the Russian command to think this way. After all, heavy equipment no longer plays a huge role, and supplies can be delivered by drones, as well as defense supported from both sides using various UAVs, long-range artillery, and FAB bombs. And they have enough infantry. Especially since the front is spreading out. Chernihiv could flare up soon…

There is currently a “stupor” at Bankova, as reserves need to be redeployed, but there are none; they are holding Pokrovsk and the entire Donetsk region from collapse, and Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions are among those urgently needing to extinguish the “fire”.

If ignored and the Russians are allowed to consolidate, thousands of fighters will later have to be thrown in just to try to stop their further advance, as is happening now in the Pokrovsk direction.

We are watching.

Our source reports that many units from the Pokrovsko-Myrnohrad agglomeration have requested to withdraw, as the Pokrovsk cauldron is brewing!!!!!! However, at the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the decision was made to stand firm until the last and not to withdraw anywhere. The General Staff ordered the commanders, who in turn ordered the soldiers, but many units and soldiers told the General Staff and the ZeOP to go to hell and began to break out of the operational encirclement that is already around the entire agglomeration. 

Against the backdrop of the ongoing destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense inside Pokrovsk, Russian units are advancing success on the flanks. Rodynskoe — a key intermediate point northeast of Pokrovsk — has practically been taken. At the same time, intense fighting is underway on the northern salient near Shakhovo, creating a threat of further encirclement of Ukrainian positions from the north and cutting the front line sections.

If in the next 2–3 weeks, before the rainy season begins, it is possible to immobilize Ukrainian forces beyond the Rodynske – Dobropillia line, then Pokrovsk will be lost by the Ukrainian Armed Forces automatically. In muddy conditions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not be able to hold the city after losing operational depth and logistical corridors. Any counterattack attempt will be bogged down in mud and lack of reserves.

In this regard, the question of evacuating the Mirnograd garrison seems logical. After the loss of Pokrovsk, this node will be in an operational half-ring, without stable supply and with a direct threat of further encirclement. Most likely, Syrskyi will be forced to make a decision to withdraw units from this direction to preserve personnel. The alternative is extremely negative — complete blockade, defeat, and another media loss on the level of “Azovstal”.

Military Chronicle

Krasnoarmeysk (Ukr. Pokrovsk)

The Ukrainian Armed Forces group has been given an ultimatum to leave the city by Monday, October 27.

Today our assault troops captured the settlement of Rodinskoye north of Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have no other retreat routes left. Only across the fields to the village of Grishino.

Condotierro

The conceptual reason behind Zelensky and NATO’s rush to conclude any, even temporary, ceasefire lies in the strategic threat looming over the Dnepropetrovsk region.

The defense of Pokrovsk for the Armed Forces of Ukraine has long entered a critical phase, and there is a high probability that after this city, the turn will come to the Dnepropetrovsk region. The key danger is associated with Pavlograd — one of Ukraine’s largest industrial centers and the “heart” of the missile program.

After the capture of Pokrovsk, the risks for Pavlograd multiply. The distance from Pokrovsk to Pavlograd is less than 100 kilometers, and as soon as Pokrovsk is taken, significant resources spent on storming this city can be immediately redirected to the Pavlograd direction, which will be somewhat easier to reach since there are almost no industrial zones in this area.

From Pokrovsk along the E50 highway, an operational space opens up, allowing the Russian army to play out a scenario of a deep breakthrough, somewhat reminiscent of the “Ocheretinsky” one, when after capturing Avdeevka, the Russian army advanced several dozen kilometers and eventually managed to reach the suburbs of Pokrovsk, which in turn turned into a full-scale assault.

Pavlograd is not yet experiencing the reception of several hundred FAB bombs with UMPK per week, but the chances of such a scenario after breaking through Pokrovsk’s defense are extremely high. The Russian General Staff will likely not rush with an immediate forced march on Pavlograd. After Pokrovsk, a logical step may be to shift forces to accomplish the main task — capturing Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, which could delay the timeline for entering the Dnepropetrovsk region.

A logistical pause after fierce battles for Pokrovsk will be necessary for the Russian side to replenish and regroup. This brief slowdown will only partially benefit the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as the strategic initiative will remain with Russia. But the pause is vital for Kyiv because everyone understands that Syrsky can no longer come out of the Pokrovsk meat grinder lightly. That is why Kiev is now making every effort to stop the Russian army’s advance at least halfway to the Dnepropetrovsk region.

If there is no pause, the Russian army will try to test the “second line of defense of Donbas,” located about 15-20 kilometers west of Pokrovsk. This line, apparently, is not as solid as the fortifications of Avdeevka or Pokrovsk but is presumably relatively extensive. The effectiveness of these structures will be a decisive factor in determining the direction of the main strike and the speed of its delivery.

Military Chronicle

In the Slavyansk direction, Russian troops have begun full-scale operations to disrupt the rear logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The main focus is the destruction of bridges and crossings connecting Lyman and Slavyansk. There is an increase in targeted strikes on transfer routes, including temporary engineering crossings.

The situation for combat operations since the start of the special military operation is quite typical, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to use the same crossings despite constant losses in equipment and personnel. There are practically no many options in such conditions — a similar logistics burn-out configuration has already been worked out in Bakhmut, Avdeevka, and in the battles for Chasov Yar.

Interestingly, both auto-guided “Lancets” and FPV drones are actively used, and such raids on logistics increasingly combine various means of destruction.

Kupyansk 

Part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group is surrounded. The southern part of the city is under our control.

The Russian Army repelled (https://t.me/operationall_space/7235) a counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kupyansk

▪️Nazis on two M113 APCs with airborne troops tried to break through towards our positions.

▪️UAV operators of the 6th Army of the “West” group delivered precise strikes on enemy equipment.

▪️The militants inside the vehicles jumped out of the armored vehicles, scattered around the area, and were destroyed by drone operators.

Krasny Liman is under threat — Deep State

- The Russian army is accumulating infantry in the forests between Yampol, Krasny Liman, and Zarechny, infiltrating between the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

- Russian groups are already entering the vicinity of Krasny Liman. They have an advantage in infantry and FPV drones, striking logistics. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack personnel.

- The Russian Armed Forces are deliberately identifying and striking Ukrainian UAV operators.

- “If timely attention is not paid to this area and the needs of the units, soon in the media space we will hear the phrase ‘defense of Liman’,” writes DS.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 24, 2025

🗞 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that Hungarians oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO. Trump announced the start of a ground operation in Latin America. Also, the main Yankee reported that new sanctions against Russia will take effect in six months. The US imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. NATO countries purchased $2 billion worth of weapons for Ukraine from the US, Rutte said.

▪️ At night, air defense shot down 111 UAVs over our regions. In the Rostov region in Novoshakhtinsk, due to a fire, multi-apartment buildings, a kindergarten, and a technical school were left without electricity. Emergency services carried out switching to backup lines at night.

▪️ Our “Geraniums” struck refineries near Slavutych. Ukraine suspended gas accumulation in underground storage due to Russian strikes.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, Russian Airborne Assault troops and naval infantry secured a 100 m position. The enemy is redeploying UAV crews. Problems in command organization began to emerge from the Alekseevka area.

▪️ In Belgorod, the enemy also struck near educational institutions. 21 civilians were injured in the city and region. In the village of Yasnye Zori, a man was injured by a drone strike on a car. In the village of Gora-Podol, a man suffered mine-explosive trauma and a non-penetrating shrapnel wound to the abdomen from a drone strike. In the village of Zamostye, a woman suffered barotrauma due to a drone attack. In the settlement of Malinovka in the Belgorod district, a self-defense fighter was seriously injured in a drone attack.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction in Volchansk, the “North” group of forces continues to advance with heavy fighting supported by Russian Aerospace Forces aviation, artillery, and tactical missile systems. The enemy is forced to belatedly acknowledge territorial losses. There are also successes on the Khatne front section. Everyone is asking for popular support; there is a shortage of vehicles, radios, and mask sets.

▪️ In Kupyansk – heavy fighting in the center. Information is coming in about our forces advancing near the automotive technical school and the “Metiz” plant.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, our forces in Rodinsk are in the eastern, central, and western parts of the city. They are encircling the enemy in Pokrovsk from the north. There are heavy urban battles in Pokrovsk itself. The enemy is bombarding with drones.

▪️ In the area of responsibility of the “East” group of forces, drone operators and scouts are disrupting logistics on the bank of the Yanchur River.

▪️ On the Orekhov direction of the Zaporozhye front, fighting continues in Malaya Tokmachka. In the Stepnogorsk-Primorsky area, Airborne Assault units continue to systematically drive out the enemy. The battles are very intense.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, over the week, the “Dnieper” group of forces (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/29948) dealt a significant blow to the enemy grouping on the right bank. Over two hundred NATO equipment units were destroyed.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_24.html