The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 26 2025

Catastrophic Russian BREAKTHROUGH East Of Oskil, Ukrainian Hail Mary In Kupyansk

Battle for Pokrovsk nears its end

6 KM Long Russian Breach Near Kupyansk

“This is a nightmare!” – under the threat of encirclement, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to hold Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad only for political reasons — Röpke

➖”I see several political reasons to hold the semi-encircled area from the Ukrainian perspective. From a military and logistical point of view, this is a nightmare,” writes the military analyst Bild.

It is now official that the Pokrovsk pocket is becoming the Pokrovsk cauldron. Putin was informed about the encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. At the same time, Putin is sending a signal to the Ukrainians that prisoners will be treated well and it is better to surrender than to die for Zelensky.

In Pokrovsk, the cauldron is not complete; there is still a neck about 2 km wide. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can break out under attacks by drones, sabotage groups, assault troops, and artillery. Losses will be 70-80%. When they could have broken out without losses, Zelensky refused the soldiers. Currently, about 1,500-2,000 soldiers are trapped there.

At the same time, a solid dense cauldron may form very soon. We started writing about the cauldron at the beginning of the month, but as usual, the Presidential Administration ignored and kept silent about the problem.

In Kupyansk, a unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has long been trapped in a mini-cauldron, but there are only 100 soldiers there, which for the staff officers is a “drop in the ocean” of statistics. They were abandoned long ago. There will be many such cauldrons in this direction, as the Russians are cutting through the Ukrainian defense. We were the first to leak information about the Kupyansk crisis when everyone else was silent.

At the same time, everyone is forbidden to surrender. Otherwise, families will not be paid. They are being blackmailed. They are forced to die there so that Zelensky can continue to promote himself, talking about successes and demanding more money for the war.

We are watching.

Western analysts are concerned that it makes sense for Russia to fully encircle Pokrovsk. Since Mariupol, there have been no such large-scale encirclements; usually, Ukrainian forces were simply pushed back. Now everything could repeat — the number of forces that would end up in the cauldron is comparable only to Kupyansk and possibly Mariupol. The West fears that if the city is still taken and the Ukrainian garrison is encircled, Moscow may make Pokrovsk a demonstrative example of what happens when resistance is prolonged for too long.

Initially, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had about twelve brigades of varying sizes near Pokrovsk. On paper, there were more than in reality, so the deployed strength can be estimated at 15–17 thousand people including logistics and support. Judging by the dynamics of the battles, up to 70-80% of these forces have already lost combat capability and need to be withdrawn to the rear.

In a sense, Pokrovsk has become the reverse version of the counteroffensive for Kiev: as the Russian army advanced, marching battalions were transferred here, as in 2023 near Rabotino and in the southern Donetsk direction. The losses of these battalions are now difficult to count, but if the ring around the city closes, not only garrison units but also part of these reserves may be encircled. 

Even if only one brigade of full strength remains there, about two and a half thousand people, the reputational blow to Kyiv will be comparable to Mariupol and “Azovstal,” and possibly exceed it.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi is hiding real losses and failures on the front, — Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezuhla

Bezuhla denied the information from Ukrainian propagandists that Ukrainian assault troops “liberated” Torske in the DPR.

“Syrskyi’s (reports) have descended into regular lies about the ‘liberation’ of certain villages. And once again, the handpicked assault regiments of the commander-in-chief appear in the lies. Meanwhile, in Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Kupiansk, Russians are already inside the cities!” — the MP wrote on social media, adding that a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine positions is currently happening in the Zaporozhye direction.

“Victory” is cancelled: Syrskyi demands to “tell the truth” about the situation near Pokrovsk

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, held a meeting with brigade and unit commanders operating in the Pokrovsk direction, where the AFU is currently in an extremely difficult situation.

The Ukrainian military leader listened to reports on the situation and once again demanded “not to embellish reality.”

“Dishonesty has too high a price — the lives of our warriors. A commander who hides the truth about the situation on the battlefield has no right to be a commander,” He stated.

These words came amid reports of a critical situation for the AFU near Pokrovsk. The militants are suffering serious losses and losing positions, while the command prefers to report on “successful operations.”

Verkhovna Rada deputy Bezuhla previously admitted:

“We are losing the last line of defence, beyond which are Pavlohrad, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, Izyum, and Kharkov.”

Even the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU is forced to publicly remind subordinates that lies will save neither the front nor careers.

The only question for Syrsky now is not that he revealed reserves and plans, but what he intends to do with the Pokrovsk direction in general. The fallback of the remaining group to the nearest fortified areas will no longer change the balance of power. There are a few options. Retreating to Dobropillia in the north or to Mezheve in the west seems like the main option. Launching counterattacks from the south towards Kurakhove makes no sense now, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine also lack the resources for this. Retreating to Pavlohrad is theoretically one of the most reasonable options, but it is practically unfeasible for political reasons, since all the remnants of the DPR from this direction will be rolled up by the Russian Armed Forces and occupied — leaving only Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Nevertheless, such a move would give the Armed Forces of Ukraine some time to prepare for the defence of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which the Russian Armed Forces will attack quite soon. Possibly even bypassing the main battle for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Many did not understand how Syrsky managed to force the introduction of reserves. The key to this situation is that this scenario is almost identical to the one in Bakhmut. The only difference is that for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, everything will now proceed much faster and worse. In Bakhmut, Russia deliberately left a narrow supply bottleneck and counted on the fact that, hoping to hold the city, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would throw countless reserves there. That’s roughly what happened. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine still did not hold the city.

Pokrovsk, unlike Bakhmut, which lies in a lowland, stands on commanding heights, significantly higher than the neighbouring districts located 25-30 kilometres to the west and north. This gives an advantage to the attacking side. The only exceptions are Mezheva and Dobropillia, which are roughly at the same height and only there can one retreat, albeit poorly, to catch their breath and take stock. There are no large industrial zones there. It is impossible to stay entrenched in existing shelters for long.

Whether it is obvious to Syrsky and his leadership that after taking Pokrovsk the Russian army will breathe freely and gather strength to rush forward is a big mystery. It is precisely at this moment that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lose their key advantage — prepared defensive lines. Now such lines will remain only in Kharkov and on the eastern outskirts of the Dnipropetrovsk region. As a result, Syrsky’s choices are extremely limited and almost all options are bad. Attempts to save the situation are expensive and risky. The time for manoeuvre for the Ukrainian side is rapidly running out.

About the “ultimatum” regarding Pokrovsk by @sashakots

I just left the Krasnoarmeysk direction and was surprised to learn about the existence of some kind of ultimatum from the Russian command. They say, surrender or… Or what?

Any ultimatum implies a certain pause, a waiting position by one side for a certain period, after which — well, we will give you a thrashing. But we are currently demonstrating a thrashing of the enemy in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd without any breaks for ultimatums.

The President clearly made it known that everyone who wishes to surrender will be received with open arms. But he said nothing about any pauses, ultimatums, and especially, God forbid, ceasefires. The destruction of the enemy in this large agglomeration is ongoing nonstop. The enemy was simply presented with an alternative, which not everyone accepts. Some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are defending desperately and are not rushing to surrender.

Accordingly, I have not noticed anything resembling the preparation of some corridor, like the Mariupol “extraction.” Artillery is actively firing from both sides now. To give you an idea, Kiev has concentrated about 20 battalions of various calibres in this direction. The drones have not disappeared. In the area of responsibility of our 2nd army, there are more than 500 drone crews, about 400 of which are strike units.

So, there is no easy walk for our units. And there is no collapse of the front. Every block, every house, every entrance is hard-fought. And the president understands this. So, regarding the question of some ultimatum to surrender by the 27th:

“We will not tie anything to any dates or events; we will always, as we have done so far, proceed from military expediency and prioritise the preservation of the lives of our guys, our servicemen,” the president emphasised.

So, there is no ultimatum. There is round-the-clock combat work to liberate our cities and a promise to treat humanely those who decide to voluntarily lay down their arms. There will be no mercy for the rest.

Against the backdrop of the critical situation in Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, the General Staff issued a positive statement that the Dobropillia offensive was partially lifted, but this is because the Russians have intensified their efforts to encircle the agglomeration.

We consider that the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ended here.

According to our data, Zelensky and Syrsky will now throw all their forces to stop the final encirclement, and they face huge losses there.

Russian public pages report the capture of Kurilovka – an important village near Kupyansk on the left bank of the Oskol River. They publish videos with a flag allegedly planted in this settlement.

Ukraine has not confirmed this. Nor has Russia officially confirmed it.

Kurilovka is located in the vicinity of Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, south of Kupyansk itself. If the village is lost, it puts all Ukrainian units east of Kupyansk in a dangerous position.

Also, if the Russians manage to reach Kupyansk-Uzlovoy, they will effectively cut off the entire Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping on the left bank of the Oskol.

The Russian army is storming Konstantinovka, advancing in the southeast of the city

It was recently reported that Russian troops have penetrated the southeastern outskirts of the city, and have now consolidated their position and advanced into the built-up area.

Previously, the Russian army managed to push out Ukrainian forces and occupy the city’s villas, which are under complete Russian control.

Everyone is already getting used to the daily mass shelling. To the daily tragedies as well. 

The tragedy in Kyiv happened because of downed drones. Unfortunately, this has always been the case. We warned that the continuation of the war means the continuation of tragedies. Everyone who supports the continuation of the war bears responsibility for these victims.

To the people, let’s say this: as long as you remain silent, the authorities will continue the war, which sooner or later will affect you too. 

As we see, the Russian Armed Forces continue to target our energy infrastructure, and Kyiv will soon be left without electricity, water, and heat. Everyone is already “shouting” about this. Here is another one.

It’s better to leave Kyiv. Due to the shelling and its intensification, the temperature in apartments will be +5 or +10 degrees Celsius, the power will be turned off every few hours, — head of the radio technology center “Flash”

We warned you about this back in April. We also often wrote about it in the summer when Zelensky and all his propaganda told the opposite, because a greater national tragedy is beneficial to him. At the same time, he himself provoked the infrastructure war 3.0 and continues it to this day.

Think!!!

From the observation of the strike on Kiev on the night of October 25, several important conclusions can be drawn.

First, the Patriot, NASAMS, and SAMP-T systems deployed on the dominant heights of the right bank, including the Zhulyany airfield area and Kryukivshchyna, did not fulfil their tasks. According to local reports, they tried to operate only at the beginning of the attack, but after several unsuccessful interceptions, they stopped firing. Second — repositioning of launchers and radars, changing positions, and even the arrival of additional launchers had no effect. Ukrainian air defence simply lacks enough missiles to repel combined strikes, and this reveals the cumulative effect of using drones — “Geran” and “Gerber.” Third — this time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine presumably did not scramble F-16 fighters to intercept missiles, which was not the case before. They probably considered the threat insignificant or simply did not want to risk the aircraft. All this indirectly indicates that Kiev’s air defence node is close to the limit of its combat capabilities. The systems are working to exhaustion, and interception effectiveness is declining. Any further increase in pressure from the Russian Federation may lead to the possibility of significantly scaling such strikes.

Russia is preparing to test the “Burevestnik” cruise missile with a nuclear power plant. Initially, this was reported by the publication the Barents Observer. Its journalists refer to a NOTAM warning issued by the Russian Federation. The document states that from August 7 to 12, the airspace over a section of Novaya Zemlya territory covering 500 sq. km will be closed.

Also, according to the Barents Observer, two Il-76 aircraft belonging to the Rosatom corporation flew to the Rogachevo airfield. It is believed that these planes are used for testing the “Burevestnik.”

The fire was further fueled by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov. Commenting on Russia’s exit from the moratorium on the deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles, he stated that our country has not only the “Oreshnik” complex but also other latest weapons.

“Burevestnik” is the most mysterious item among Putin’s “seven.” This is the name given to the latest weapons systems that Vladimir Putin spoke about during his presidential address to the Federal Assembly in 2018-2019. This list includes the Sarmat ballistic missile, the Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle, the Avangard hypersonic warhead, the Peresvet combat laser, etc.

But even before the official presentation of these systems, most of them were known to some extent. However, “Burevestnik” came as a complete surprise. Moreover, no official information about the progress of work on this product has appeared. Everything known now is based on references to Western intelligence and analysts or sources of questionable reliability.

Therefore, the Russian cruise missile with a nuclear power unit immediately became surrounded by many myths:

“Burevestnik” is a flying “Hiroshima,” leaving a radioactive trail behind.

Complete nonsense. The principle of the missile’s propulsion system is very simple. The reactor generates electricity, which is supplied to heating elements. They heat the air passing through the air intake to several thousand degrees. This is how the missile flies. The reactor does not interact with the air and is most likely completely isolated by special protection.

The real name of “Burevestnik” is 9M730. This is also false. The official name of the cruise missile has never been announced or appeared in government contracts. The name “Burevestnik” was chosen by public vote, as were “Poseidon” and “Peresvet.” The index 9M730 appeared in a publication by a federal media outlet and is incorrect, although it was immediately spread across various sources.

Russia has two main cruise missile manufacturers – GosMKB “Raduga” and NPO “Novator.” The former owns the Kh-55 and Kh-101 missile families. The latter produces the naval “Kalibr” and land-based R-500 missiles.

In appearance, “Burevestnik” closely resembles the Kh-101 family. There was even a version that the cruise missile with a nuclear power unit had the index Kh-102. But this assumption is also incorrect.

In turn, 9M730 is a product from the R-500 missile family for the “Iskander” complexes and has no relation to “Burevestnik.” Even visually, all “R-500″ missiles do not resemble the cruise missile with a nuclear power unit.

“Burevestnik” exploded at the Nenoksa test site. This is also untrue. In 2019, the incident involved a different product. The “Burevestnik” itself was tested in a non-nuclear version at Kapustin Yar and with a nuclear power unit over Novaya Zemlya.

Besides the nuclear reactor, the new cruise missile carries another mystery – how it will track its coordinates during flight? For obvious reasons, satellite navigation is unsuitable. The option of correction by extreme points, where the missile jumps over the ground at a given point and compares the stored image with the real terrain to determine deviation, is also not viable.

Most likely, “Burevestnik” uses some new navigation principle that allows flights over global distances. However, its technical characteristics remain unknown.

Mentioning that Russia now has not only the “Oreshnik” but also the “Burevestnik” is primarily a signal to Donald. “Oreshnik” reaches London and Berlin, while “Burevestnik” reaches Washington and basically any point on the map.

A missile capable of manoeuvring in the air for as long as needed, “hovering” over any defence and entering US airspace from an unprotected side, changes the geopolitical landscape.

It is no coincidence that Putin announced the successful tests of the “Burevestnik” when the United States began talking about transferring “Tomahawks” and other long-range weapons to Kiev. This should swing Trump’s pendulum in the other direction.

Two Majors #Overview #Summary as of October 26, 2025

▪️ Last week, the oscillation of the negotiations from preparing the meeting between the Supreme Leader and Trump oscillated from discussing the summit in Hungary to its cancellation due to disagreements over starting positions. Trump decided that Moscow wants all of Ukraine, while he wanted to take control of the non-liberated part to stop the war at the LoC. Another “Minsk” and Russia’s deception are not needed, so our positions remain unacceptable to the West. The European “Coalition of the Willing” discussed another troop deployment to Ukraine after the desired cessation of hostilities; this time the French stood out again, despite having their own troubles at home.

▪️ Trump’s dissatisfaction was expressed through sanctions against “Lukoil” and “Rosneft,” which hit the EU hard: the German Chancellor rushed to negotiate with Washington and said he expects the US to exempt German businesses of “Rosneft” from sanctions. Trump’s plan is clear: to finally break Russia’s hydrocarbon trade with the EU and resell our resources himself. Our comprador bourgeoisie is happy with this option: sending all kinds of signals to the US about readiness to provide American business access to our resources.

▪️ Kiev also actively contributes to undermining the energy of our country by attacking the energy infrastructure of Belgorod region with American weapons and sending UAVs to strike refineries, power plants, and other significant facilities. In the fourth year of the war and after dozens of destroyed facilities at the MoD factories, Russia decided to involve reservists in protecting civilian facilities deep inside Russian territory. The measure is correct, but may not fully solve the problem, although it will increase the density of anti-aircraft fire. We will see the result after new crews complete training and all bureaucratic wheels turn.

▪️ Meanwhile, strikes deep into the territory of the former Ukrainian SSR are still more impactful on a national scale than the arrivals of Ukrainian drones to our side. The missile arsenal of the Russian Armed Forces on the eve of the heating season clearly inflicts visible damage on the enemy’s energy sector, leading to widespread planned and other outages. Nevertheless, the margin of safety is still large, and it is too early to sing the pre-war TV mantra that “Ukraine will freeze.” The main thing is we do not give the Kiev regime a break to restore damaged nodes.

▪️ Heavy fighting continues on the front.  Supply is slowly improving, but frontline units still partly depend on the practice of “pooling money for electronic warfare/armor/communications/drones/consumables” and help from volunteer organizations. 

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the Russian Armed Forces have been engaged in counterattacks for a week in the area of Alekseevka and in the Kondratovka direction. In the Kharkov direction near Volchansk, a few villages almost at the border have been captured further south. Belgorod is gradually purchasing generators and going into darkness with limited electricity supply, turning off street lighting. A strike on the reservoir dam from the “HIMARS” has so far led to authorities proposing that residents of nearby villages voluntarily relocate to temporary accommodation centers. 

▪️ In Kupyansk, our forces continue to storm the city, reports indicate a breakthrough of the Russian Armed Forces towards Kurilovka from the south to encircle the remnants of the urban area. Advances continue in the Krasnoliman and Seversk directions. Near Konstantinovka, Plescheevka has been taken. North of Pokrovsk, heavy counterattacks are underway in the area of the Kucherov Yar salient and in the area of the finally cleared Vladimirovka. In Pokrovsk itself (Krasnoarmeysk), the Russian Armed Forces have significantly advanced in the urban area and around the city. Although the enemy has concentrated its most serious forces to maintain the supply corridor, it is unable to stop our advance, including near Mirnograd, although the fighting there is also very intense. The Vostok battalion group maintains the highest pace of advance: the Far Easterners are advancing in the Dnepropetrovsk direction and in the east of Zaporozhye region. On the Zaporozhye front, a significant breakthrough was made in the Orekhov direction. In Primorsk and Stepnohirsk, the Dnipro battalion group is engaged in heavy fighting for settlements: the enemy has pulled in reserves and although the confrontation is intense, it has not yet led to significant changes in the line of contact. In the Kherson direction, our efforts are focused on Karantini island in the city of Kherson.

▪️ A significant change in the situation is the commissioning of new long-range FAB bombs by the Russian Army, flying up to 200 km. This formidable weapon caused many problems for the enemy at previous distances, and now striking significant targets at this depth has become much easier.

✨ Thus, despite the desire to build tunnels to Alaska and give candy to the American elites, the conflict in Ukraine is escalating and involving an increasing number of Russian citizens in military and related affairs. Economic signs such as VAT increases suggest changes in economic planning during wartime, but no decisive change in the war conduct paradigm by our leadership is foreseen yet. Numerous provocations and accusations by EU countries against Russia for all mortal sins continue to justify further European militarism and imply only further escalation.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_26.html