The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 31 2025

RUAF Control 80% of Pokrovsk | New Encirclements Created | Myrnohrad In Critical Danger

Pokrovsk Clashes Reveal Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis

Putin breaks Zelensky/Collective West frontline narrative

Kupyansk Collapsed | Lyman, Siversk & Kostynatynivka Stormed | Massive Disaster In Eastern Ukraine

Our sources revealed that a coalition of actors is growing against Andriy Yermak at Bankova, who has started to lose control over Zelensky. The head of the Office of the President failed the international track, which is now obvious to everyone in Kyiv. The Ukrainian president was humiliated by not having a meeting organized at the airport. There will be no “Tomahawks.” Sanctions against Russia will only take effect in six months, and even then, it’s not certain. The scapegoat in this situation turned out to be the head of the Office of the President, Yermak, who a week before the summit was traveling to meetings in the States and assuring Zelensky of a triumph. This is already Yermak’s second “blunder” recently. It was the head of the Office who persuaded Zelensky to organize an attack on NABU and SAP, which led to an international scandal and pressure on the president from European partners. Currently, the head of state is extremely dissatisfied with Yermak’s work, which is provoking a split within the power vertical.

Our sources in the Presidential Administration confirm the information from Russian insider Telegram channels that the Kremlin rejected all proposals of the EU/Ukraine peace plan. Andriy Yermak will use Russia’s refusal to pressure the Trump Administration to obtain weapons from the USA. 

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Yesterday’s statement by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry representative Georgiy Tikhiy, prohibiting foreign and Ukrainian media from trying to reach Ukrainian servicemen trapped in the “cauldrons” through territory liberated by Russia, became an official admission of the catastrophic situation for the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov, and Kupyansk.

Thus, the official representative of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry confirmed that there are no other ways for journalists or the servicemen themselves to enter or exit the “cauldrons” except through the Russian “safety corridors.”

The ban on entering these “cauldrons” via corridors provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense for foreign and Ukrainian media is necessary for the Kiev regime to conceal the real state of affairs on the front and to deceive the international community and the people of Ukraine.

The ultimate goal of these actions is to preserve favorable conditions for the Kyiv regime’s leadership to receive and continue embezzling financial resources sent by Western sponsors for the war against Russia — Russian Ministry of Defense.

Rudenko

Our sources in the General Staff reported that Zelensky requested from Syrsky the real situation on the front and possible losses of Ukraine by the end of the year. The Commander-in-Chief was forced to provide General Staff analytics, according to which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will with 90% probability lose: Kupyansk/Lyman/Seversk/Konstantinovka/Pokrovsk/Mirnograd/Huliaipole. The information shocked Zelensky, questioning how Syrsky allowed such a situation and where the reserves for city defense are, to which the Commander-in-Chief replied that all combat-ready brigades were lost in the Kursk operation.

Street fighting in Pokrovsk is not just an episode of the war, but a mirror of how information flows shape the perception of the conflict’s progress. While some sources report that “Russia controls most of the city,” others clarify that it is a series of small assaults and gradual advances within the urban area. The war has ceased to be a front line — it has become a mosaic of narratives, where the word “control” works stronger than the fact itself.

The media, including The New York Times, do what they have always done: translate events into the language of symbols. The city turns into a metaphor — for Ukraine, it is the last line of resistance, for Russia, proof of systemic superiority. But essentially, it is the same war of attrition, where victory is brought not by the number of kilometers, but by the ability to manage time, supplies, and audience attention.

From a pragmatic point of view, both sides fight not only for territory but also for the perception of reality. If the Ukrainian command shows resilience, it maintains the trust of the West; if Russia demonstrates progress — it strengthens the sense of inevitability. And in this sense, informational success is sometimes more important than tactical: it sets the emotional framework in which all reports are then read.

The situation in Pokrovsk is worsening for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), but the battles for the city continue.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces (RAF) have leveled the LBS along the railway and completely captured the center;

▪️ The industrial zone in the west was also lost by the UAF;

▪️ 60% of Pokrovsk is under Russian control, 26% under Ukrainian control, the rest is a gray zone.

The key word of yesterday was “encirclement.” According to both sides, there is still no encirclement there; the only place where Pokrovsk is encircled. In general, encirclement is a quite clear and established term that should not be applied everywhere one wants, and if one really wants to flex terminology, it can only be about a blockade.

The danger for the UAF is not the current situation itself, but the trend toward its deterioration. Right now, the UAF can break out of the pocket as they have done many times before; one can recall Avdiivka, Kurakhove, Ugledar, and so on. But each time, due to the specifics of how and based on what considerations decisions are made, it happened too late, and I have said many times that Syrsky will play with fire sooner or later. Maybe this is such a case now, or maybe not, and the UAF will fight in the pocket for another month or two and then withdraw with relatively small losses.

At the same time, the very fact of war under such conditions means increased losses due to the inability to conduct rotations, properly evacuate the wounded, and supply infantry inside the pocket, but Syrsky likes that. Meanwhile, “from below” there are calls not to sacrifice lives for political reasons and to leave the pocket; in particular, such a post was written by Sergey “Flash.”

Another group of Ukrainian media people started looking for those to blame and found them: Pokrovsk is almost lost because of a unit of the 32nd UAF brigade. Allegedly, they did not report problems in their area of responsibility in time, and then it became too late. This was mentioned by Deepstate, and then the specific brigade was named by TSN journalists, but are they really to blame? Maybe Syrsky and the system he built are to blame, where lying is encouraged and telling the truth is punished? But criticizing Syrsky is forbidden, so it is easier to blame some battalion commander.

Syrsky himself, by the way, acknowledged problems in Pokrovsk but stated that he is working on solving them, for which he personally visited the direction, listened to reports, and gave valuable instructions, as well as publicly threatened commanders at all levels with severe punishment “for irresponsibility.”

We already know that GUR special forces were redeployed to Pokrovsk; now, according to Syrsky, they have gathered the entire elite there, from left to right: Air Assault Forces, assault regiments, Special Operations Forces, Central Special Forces, Security Service of Ukraine, National Guard, police, and so on. But objectively, the UAF is unlikely to have the strength to retake Pokrovsk; even cutting off the penetration at Dobropillia required three months of fighting, and even then it was not completely cut off, and the situation there for the RAF was much worse than what is in Pokrovsk, the south of which is under full control and where UAV operators are already entering. Therefore, the maximum the UAF can currently hope for is to stabilize the front, hold the pocket of Horlivka, and prevent the Russian infantry from spreading in other directions, for example, toward Hryshyne, but hardly more.

And even this looks more like an optimistic scenario; a more realistic one is that the fate of Pokrovsk will be decided in the coming days and the UAF will be forced to withdraw from the Myrnohrad pocket, which overall resembles the Avdiivka scenario.

Our source reports that Syrsky, under Zelensky’s orders, is throwing huge forces to unblock Pokrovsk, losing huge live and technical resources in the process, but they are not doing this to rescue those who ended up at the bottom of the “bag” (referring to the 25th brigade and others), but to report that there is no encirclement and everything is stable in this area, and then there will still be an encirclement, or the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply burn all their forces in the Pokrovska Voronka, since sending a hundred soldiers, only 10% reach the bottleneck, who also die within the next hours. The reason – Russian positions everywhere, assault troops, drones, etc.

Our source reports that Western intelligence agencies are warning Zelensky that the Pokrovsky and Kupyansk case might be a trap for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Right now, Zelensky and Syrsky are desperately throwing reserves from everywhere to save their skins, but they are exposing other directions. It is also dangerous now in the Chernihiv region, the Russians are heavily shelling it. They knocked out the power, are hitting the railway, now they are hitting communications. There are reports of a strike on the TV tower in Chernihiv.

We wrote about this direction and the risks, as well as about Kherson. 

We are watching.

While everyone is busy discussing the Pokrovsk vortex and the Kupyansk node, where there are almost encirclements, the Russians are rapidly advancing in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Another settlement has been taken in the Dnipropetrovsk region, Novoaleksandrivka, located less than 10 km southeast of Pokrovske — an important defense hub of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

But here the main goal of the Russian Armed Forces is emerging – the encirclement of Huliaipole and then Orikhiv. The pace of the Russians’ advance is very high, and by spring they may capture Orikhiv, which would pose a full-fledged threat to Zaporizhzhia, making it uninhabitable (turning it into another Kherson). This will increase population outflow and the decline of Ukraine’s already dead economy.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that while everyone is busy with the Pokrovsk funnel, the Russian army has begun to encircle Severesk, the city is already cut off from supplies. Syrsky is urgently asked to withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the Commander-in-Chief is categorical, the order is to stand to the death. The front has begun clearing in 3-4 places, and the General Staff cannot develop a defensive strategy.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of October 31, 2025

▪️ The decision of the Supreme 🇷🇺 to allow foreign journalists, including Ukrainian, to visit the areas of blocked Ukrainian troops in Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Mirnograd (Dimitrov), and Kupyansk is being sabotaged by the leadership of Ukraine 🇺🇦. Kiev intends to send its own to slaughter, ignoring the call of its US master to stop the killing. The Americans, after Trump announced plans to conduct nuclear tests, talks about underground low yield tests, which demonstrates the unpeaceful attitude of the USA. Russian Armed Forces strikes on energy facilities of Ukraine have led to partial power outages (and from Oct. 31, round-the-clock power outages), Kiev always fuels panic, to get new humanitarian aid from the EU and hoping that the strikes will not be repeated. But residents of large cities are urged to go to the countryside and heat with firewood.

▪️ Russian Armed Forces struck Sumy, Zaporozhye, and Dnepropetrovsk at night.

▪️ “As a result of shooting down a UAV, debris (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/63075) fell on the territory of the thermal power plant in the city of Oryol, causing damage to power supply equipment,” wrote the regional governor, although footage from the scene shows a bright flash directly near the facility. In the Rostov region, UAVs of the AFU were shot down in the Myasnikovsky, Millerovsky, and Chertkovsky districts. UAVs were also destroyed over the Rostov region. Footage is circulating of a strike on a substation near Vladimir.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the AFU attacked an agricultural holding with drones in Khoromnoe, Klimovsky district; an employee was injured. The civilian population is generally dissatisfied with the level of coverage of the strikes by regional authorities and the lack of clear instructions for residents of border areas amid the strikes.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the enemy is trying in small groups to infiltrate towards our positions; our artillery and FPV group calculations are working on these groups. Two attempts by the AFU to advance assault groups in the areas of Varachino and Stepove (Leninske) were thwarted.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, men in the village of Kolyhalino, and Kazinka were struck by drones in passenger cars. In a drone attack in Shebekino, an employee of a commercial enterprise was injured. In Bessonovka, a drone attacked a service bus; the driver was injured. Under strikes are Urazovo, Kukuevka, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Alexandrovka, Belyanka, Zamostye, Dorogoshch, Khotmyzhsk, Proletarsky, Solokhi, and Oktyabrsky. On the Belyanka – Surkovo road, a drone attacked a truck. The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement about strikes on a reservoir dam.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, fierce battles continue in Volchansk and on the Khatne sector. On the left bank of Volchansk, our forces fight for every house, advancing in the built-up area. On the Melovoe-Khatne front sector, our forces are expanding control zones along the Russian border.

▪️ Near Kupyansk, Sadove has been liberated, the Russian MoD reported, furthering the blockade of the AFU garrison in Kupyansk. Our troops continue to advance in the city. Battles are reported at the Kupyansk dairy-canning plant.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian Armed Forces continue to liberate urban areas and suburbs, pushing the enemy deeper into the zone still controlled by the AFU. Roads in Pokrovsk are at least under full fire control of the Russian Armed Forces; supply to the remnants of the AFU is extremely difficult. The fall of the city’s defense is a matter of time.

▪️ The “Vostok” Group of Forces liberated another settlement: Krasnogorskoye, completing the liberation of the right bank of the Yanchur River in the Zaporozhye region.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, the Russian Army continued offensive actions in the Novodanilovka direction. No changes were reported on the LoC despite the intensity of the fighting.

▪️ On the Kherson direction, there are mutual strikes across the Dnieper and actions of small groups in the island zone.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_31.html