The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 25 2025

Major Russian Buildup Within Pokrovsk | Eastern Siversk Has Fallen

“Road Of Death” to Pokrovsk. UA attempts to supply the cauldron have failed quite a few times.

Col Doug Macgregor: Ukraine Russia Peace Proposal Moscow Awaits Official Version

Colleagues, for many guards, peace is the end of their usual world, and the question of survival for every soldier on the front becomes not just a goal. Everyone understands perfectly well that politicians will sooner or later come to an agreement, but you are sent on a journey with a single ending…

Moreover, these commanders will survive, even get all the awards, and then go into politics, but no one will return the life of an ordinary soldier.

ZeRada1

Foresight scenarios of four peaceful track outcomes

The negotiation process around Ukraine has entered a phase where every leak becomes a tool of pressure, and every public phrase is a proxy operation. The current architecture is based on four possible outcomes, each triggering its own strategic line for the USA, Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. These scenarios do not compete but exist in parallel, like four layered strata of the future, which can replace each other at any moment depending on the actors’ positions.

First scenario: Ukraine accepts the main points of Trump’s plan but makes targeted changes that allow shifting the blame for the breakdown of negotiations onto the Kremlin.

This format is the most realistic under the current conditions, where the President’s Office is pressed by corruption scandals and a critical situation at the front. The main goal is to shift the focus onto the Kremlin, which is unwilling to negotiate, and for this, only three cases are needed—the NATO issue and the introduction of a European contingent, reparations, and thirdly, the absence of status for the territories lost by Ukraine.

Second scenario: Ukraine rejects the plan, and the USA withdraws support.

This is a line of coercion through emptiness. Washington does not need sharp steps: it is enough to hold a pause, allowing Kyiv to feel a resource vacuum. Congress is divided, and Trump uses the internal Republican struggle as an argument for the absence of additional aid packages. Then Ukraine’s military machine will naturally slow down, parties advocating for a “sustainable peace” will strengthen in Europe, and Russia will gain a strategic advantage without formal concessions. This option benefits Moscow, suits Washington as a way to close the conflict with minimal costs, and is critically dangerous for Kyiv, which will be left alone with the reality of the front and exhaustion.

Third scenario: The plan becomes the basis for negotiations, but Kyiv and the EU push for changes.

This is the path of protracted diplomacy. Europeans will try to bring themselves back to the negotiating table using pressure through media, leaks about territorial points, NATO calls to “improve” the text, and the involvement of Merz as a mediator. Ukraine will try to rewrite security formulas, leave the Crimea issue out of the deal, and obtain guarantees that the USA is not ready to provide. Negotiations will turn into a long series of amendments, drag on until March 2026, and be accompanied by local escalations. For Russia, this scenario is the least convenient: the process will become sticky, uncertain, and allow the West to maintain influence over Kyiv.

Fourth scenario. The deal collapses, the war continues, but under new conditions.

This is the “controlled chaos” option. Negotiations are formally ongoing, but the parties deliberately delay details. The USA gets a reason to transfer responsibility to Europe and focus on Asia. Kyiv maintains the status quo, emphasizing the impossibility of concessions. Russia continues the operation, gradually pushing advantages on the front. At the same time, none of the parties takes political responsibility to end the war. This scenario benefits those who play for long attrition: Europe for redistributing arms markets, the USA for controlling Kyiv, and Russia as a way to conduct the conflict on its own terms.

Each of the four outcomes has already been launched in the public field. The outcome will be determined not by the text of the plan but by the moment when one side decides to use the pause as a weapon.

The President’s Office has found a draft that will not satisfy the Kremlin, which means negotiations could reach a deadlock at the next stage if Washington does not agree on the formats of legitimization. According to our information, Russia demands a legal renunciation by Kyiv of the territories, and all this must be done through the UN. Zelensky will not agree to such a step; we will now push for the Korean format, not the Finnish one, but the final version of the agreement will only be clear at the negotiations in the USA.

Our information is confirmed by The Washington Post, reporting that the US and Ukraine are discussing a peace plan based on US proposals, not Europe’s.

The EU and globalists do not yet play an important role in the negotiations.

We will only add that Zelensky’s current task is to include certain points in the American version that will be unacceptable to the Kremlin. The Bankova’s task is to shift the responsibility for the breakdown of negotiations onto the Kremlin. Also, the Office wants to accept not all points at once, but “packages” of 5-8 points; this, according to Yermak’s idea, will allow Ukraine to delay the process and have the opportunity to include inconvenient points for the Kremlin in the first package first.

Conclusion: so far, the peace case resembles not a move toward peace, but attempts by players to set each other up and drag out the process itself.

We are watching.

Ukraine has agreed to limit the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 800,000 soldiers — The Financial Times.

There are a few nuances here:

Who will pay for their maintenance? According to our data, Bankova wants to maintain them at the expense of Russian frozen assets, which in itself is an immediate red line for the Kremlin. The second option is maintenance at the expense of the EU, as Europe’s shield against the Russian threat. But the EU currently has no extra money, although they will push this under the message that either a European serves and fights later or a Ukrainian does.

Before the war, the Armed Forces of Ukraine numbered no more than 280,000.

We already inside-sourced in August that this is Zelensky’s main goal in the peace case.

He also convinces globalists that at some point the war will still thaw when Russia weakens or enters a track of internal destabilization.

We are watching. Most likely, this point will be inconvenient for the Kremlin. It is deliberately included so that the Russian Federation refuses and becomes the initiator of the disruption of Trump’s peace plan.

‘Trump is quite satisfied’ – Rubio on talks with Ukrainians and Europeans in Geneva

‘Rubio in Geneva stated that the US has made huge progress on the Ukrainian issue. Even President Donald Trump, who earlier publicly scolded the Ukrainian leadership again for what he considered insufficient gratitude, is now ‘quite satisfied with the reports we have provided him on the progress made,’ Rubio said. The Secretary of State refused to disclose details.

‘I am not going to go into the details of the topics discussed because the process is ongoing,’ Rubio said, although in other comments he hinted that ‘the remaining issues are not insurmountable.’ Rubio repeatedly avoided attempts to ask whether the US expects significant concessions not only from Ukraine but also from Russia.’ 

Zelensky agreed to Trump’s plan as a basis for negotiations because he was left with no choice, – Axios

 - Zelensky understood that he could not afford to refuse it, and pressure from Washington was growing by the hour.

 - Trump’s plan was communicated to Zelensky by phone last weekend — not on Thursday in Kiev. It was developed by US special representatives (Witkoff, Kushner) and the Kremlin (Dmitriev); presented with the participation of Umerov and a Qatari mediator.

 - The Americans expected agreement, but negotiations reached a deadlock: Ukraine perceived the plan as preliminary ideas, Washington as an official proposal. Witkoff’s meeting with Zelensky in Turkey did not take place.

 - Driscoll (on Vance’s initiative) presented the plan in Kiev on Thursday, announced “agreed deadlines,” but the administration criticized it for being premature.

 - Trump, irritated by delays, set a deadline — Thanksgiving Day, and sent negotiators to Geneva. Ukraine was accused of leaks; they promised a positive statement.

 - The plan grew out of negotiations between Witkoff and Kushner with Dmitriev in October — after the Gaza deal. Trump, Vance, and Rubio were aware.

The Ukrainian authorities have driven the army to complete exhaustion: the Armed Forces of Ukraine have neither reserves for rotations nor the strength to hold the front. The military command, fully controlled by the whims of the Presidential Office, has proven incapable of coming up with anything other than primitive frontal assaults, holding positions that are effectively lost, and dubious local counterattacks that do not affect the overall situation on the front but grind down the most combat-ready units of the Defense Forces. As a result, Ukrainian servicemen are increasingly surrendering small villages without a fight, ignoring orders from above, which is not surprising – when the enemy approaches a settlement, they already control 20 km behind it using drones. At the same time, on some sections of the defense line, fortifications exist only on paper: at the planning stage, billions of hryvnias allocated for their construction were simply embezzled.

A separate problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is that the Russian Armed Forces surpass them technologically and in manpower. There is no personnel shortage in the Russian troops, nor are there funding problems (for example, the enemy has a war plan ready for the entire year 2026, with a budget of 230 billion dollars, while Ukraine has about 60 billion allocated, and even that still needs to be begged from Europeans).

The result of the degradation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, allowed by Zelensky’s authorities, is losses of 1.7 million people, and regular exchanges of bodies show a horrifying ratio: for every one Russian soldier, there are at least 30 dead Ukrainian fighters. This is not just a statistic – it is a brutal attitude of the authorities towards their own soldiers, who are ground down without preparation on the most difficult sections of the front.

Yesterday at the Cheka Resident, they analyzed the situation around the Pokrovsk funnel and the complete encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in Myrnohrad. The order to enter was never given to our military; they were simply left to die under bombs and UAVs. Let us remind you that our drones can no longer reach there, and supplies inside the city are almost depleted.

The Russian army has taken the Gornyak and Shakhtarsky districts in Pokrovsk, battles are ongoing for the village of Rovne, the enemy is pressing on Myrnohrad from all sides.

The AFU launched new attacks with forces from the 82nd and 95th Air Assault Brigades and the 425th Assault Regiment of the AFU from the Hrishyno area aiming to unblock the encircled AFU group.

In Myrnohrad, assault troops of the 51st Russian army continue to press on the Vostochny, Zapadny districts, and the southern part of the city, held by the 25th brigade.

In a week, the AFU made 34 attempts to break the encirclement but could not get past the first lines of Russian defense. Losses are already higher than in the Bakhmut meat grinder, but Syrsky assures Zelensky that everything is under control!

Dear journalists, ask Syrsky about Pokrovsk and the situation under his control, maybe it’s time to honestly tell the public that there is a crisis at the front. Political Telegram channels have been publishing reports, not propaganda, since the beginning of autumn, and they spoke of an impending collapse, but everyone preferred to remain silent.

It’s time to urgently change the Commander-in-Chief and withdraw units from Syrsky’s “cauldrons,” otherwise we will lose the last units ready to fight for the country.

While Syrsky lies to everyone that the situation has stabilized, the reality is quite different. Today, the Pokrovsk funnel and Severesk were analyzed in detail on a private channel, tomorrow Kupyansk and Huliaipole. 

I haven’t seen such a speed of enemy advancement in a long time, — the deputy commander of the Third Army Corps, Zhorin, stated about the worsening situation on the front.

The collapse of the Zaporozhye front continues: The Russian Army begins the assault on Huliaipole!

▪️The situation on the Huliaipole direction of the Zaporozhye front is rapidly deteriorating for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

▪️After the liberation of Zatyshshia, Russian troops and the “gray zone” with it have approached the outskirts of the key settlement of Huliaipole.

▪️Our scouts and sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already entering the outskirts.

▪️Also, Russian units have advanced several kilometers west of Rovnopillia, approaching Varvarivka and threatening to cut off the supply route to Huliaipole.

▪️After capturing Veselyi, the Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on the settlements of Zelenyi Hai and Vysoke.

Its these type of areas that are problematic for Ukraine, as they can contest Russia in certain spots but they can’t fight everywhere and so Russia is free to gain significant ground in other areas. 

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 25, 2025

▪️ At night, the Krasnodar Territory was subjected to one of the most prolonged and massive enemy attacks. Six residents of the region were wounded, at least 20 houses were damaged in five municipalities. Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Kabardinka, Pervorechenskoye, Borisovka, Myskhako, and Sochi also repelled an air attack. The enemy launched drones bypassing Crimea and through the Sea of Azov. In the Rostov region, in Taganrog and the Neklinovsky district, one person was killed, and 10 residents received various injuries. In Taganrog, the facade and windows of two apartment buildings and one private house were damaged, as well as parked cars; a warehouse caught fire in the industrial zone. In the Neklinovsky district, a private house caught fire in the village of Petrushino. In the village of Veselo-Voznesenka, a gas pipeline pipe near a private house was damaged.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck Kiev (https://t.me/dva_mjors_kOrtiZoL/4800), and in the Odessa region, after hits on the thermal power plant, there were power outages. Explosions were heard in the Kharkov, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Sumy regions. Hypersonic “Kinzhal” missiles were also used.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the “North” group of forces continues to push through the AFU defense in the Sumy region with heavy fighting. In the areas of Andreevka and Varachino, our forces struck identified groups of Ukrainian troops. On the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky front sections, Russian artillery struck Ukrainian forces near Ryzhevka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, on the Kazinka-Mikhaylovka road, an FPV drone attacked a GAZelle vehicle, wounding the driver. In the village of Repyakhovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, an FPV drone struck a passenger car; a woman died in the hospital, a man was wounded. At the Nechaevka-Ziborovka road intersection, a Ukrainian drone attacked a passenger car, wounding a woman. A civilian was wounded as a result of a drone strike on a commercial facility in the village of Bessonovka. Many settlements are under attack by the Nazis.

▪️ Intense fighting is ongoing in the southern part of Volchansk on the Kharkov direction. West of Synelnykove, fighting continues in the forest area. On the Liptsovsky section, there are no changes; positional battles are ongoing.

▪️ In Seversk, our assault groups were spotted by the enemy on the northeastern outskirts of the city, although previously Russian Armed Forces units were noted only in the southern part of the built-up area.

▪️ Fighting is ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Konstantinovka. Our forces are leveling the front near Ivanpolye.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the “Vostok” group of forces took the settlement of Zatishye; there are reports of our vanguard entering the outskirts of Guliaipole, an important enemy stronghold. Our sabotage and reconnaissance groups are likely operating.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, @DnevnikDesantnika (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika) confirms the entry of our units into Novodanilovka. Fighting continues on the western outskirts of Malaya Tokmachka. Our troops are working to encircle Orechov.

▪️ The enemy is gradually concentrating additional UAV units on the Kherson direction to cut off the logistics of the “Dnepr” group of forces from the coastline. All main routes will soon be within the strike drone operational zone of the AFU without countermeasures. The coastal zone of Kherson on the right bank of the Dnieper is again filling with enemy reserves.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_25.html