The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 04 2025

Total Disaster for Kyiv: Pokrovsk Lost and a Massive Force Trapped in Mirnograd!

A Great Tragedy of The War

Syrsky should resign, Pokrovsk is lost, Myrnohrad is surrounded! Maryana Bezuhla spoke the truth to the whole country, but who cares about the problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainians…

The people’s deputy was not afraid to voice part of the truth that no one dares to address now. People may have different opinions about Bezuhla, but who else can speak the truth from the Rada podium like that?

Pink template, two parallel realities that the authorities do not notice! TCC police who kill Ukrainians and commit lawlessness across the country, while they claim that military commissars have no right….

TCC have no right to check documents, detain, and hold people in military commissariats, said Ombudsman Lubinets.

“Our military personnel have no right to check the documents of Ukrainian citizens. This is directly prohibited by the Constitution of Ukraine. The only bodies that can do this are law enforcement agencies. The National Police, the State Border Guard Service, the National Guard. TCC and SP employees have no right to use physical force. The TCC and SP premises themselves are not places of detention. People cannot be detained there, nor can people be brought there for detention. People cannot stay there for several days without the possibility to simply call their relatives and loved ones. And employees of any government bodies do not have the authority to take personal belongings, such as mobile phones, and deny the possibility to call relatives and loved ones,” Lubinets said.

Here I just want to add one thing: there is no corruption in Ukraine, and all the leaks are the hand of the Kremlin! What idiots they are…

Based on negotiations, we can make a forecast of three foresee scenarios that reflect the dynamics of the negotiation track under Trump’s peace plan.  We will specify the scenarios exactly based on the negotiation process, and then we will provide our forecast of possible variants of the war in Ukraine, assuming that the EU/UK will try to make a move like the Queen and disrupt the track, and they can do this at any stage.

Foresee scenario:

Controlled compromise

This scenario is based on the fact that the US and Russia have already entered a constructive phase. Peskov indicated this with a formula of recognition of Washington and secret negotiations.

The process develops through closed rounds. Russia does not refuse the plan but adjusts it. The US gradually adapts the document to Russian red lines, including the question of security, fixed borders, and neutral status of Ukraine.

Washington gets stabilization to focus on other directions. The Kremlin gets legitimization of the new territorial contour and cessation of military uncertainty. Europe is excluded from the game and is faced with the fact. Kyiv becomes an object rather than a participant in the process.

The result may be a framework document that does not solve all the questions but confirms the conditions of a controlled freeze on favorable Moscow conditions.

Hard reformatting through the US

The US activates strategic pressure on Ukraine to force a quick political turnaround. Peskov emphasized the readiness of Moscow to meet as much as needed, which means control over the pace. If Washington decides to speed up the process, it will go on a credit and military pressure on Kyiv.

In this scenario, Washington and Moscow create a two-pole model of resolution where Kyiv is put into a mode of forced agreement. Europe remains against but its opinion is ignored.

The result is an agreement that formally looks like a Ukrainian initiative but is actually completely formed by the US and coordinated with Russia. Moscow’s requirements are fulfilled almost entirely, including neutral status and special security zones.

This is a scenario where the US and Russia temporarily become partners in stabilization to avoid uncontrolled escalation.

Prolonged strategic pause

If during the closed consultations the US and Russia face insurmountable differences on one of the fundamental topics, for example, on the status of territories or the presence of US military structures in the region, a mode of prolonged pause may arise.

In this variant, negotiations continue but turn into a diplomatic trap. Public statements maintain a tone of constructiveness but there is no real progress. The US uses negotiations to win time, while Russia uses the pause to strengthen its military position and infrastructure on the new territories.

Europe allocates resources to Kyiv for the continuation of the war, but without results. Ukraine gradually finds itself in a state of internal erosion of elites. Externally, the conflict is not resolved, but the balance of power changes in favor of Moscow.

This scenario does not provide for a formal peace, but creates conditions for a more favorable deal for Russia in the future when the US is ready to make concessions.

In international politics, there is always a moment when the strategy of “deal-making” stops working. Donald Trump encountered such a limit in his attempt to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. His approach, based on pressure and rapid trading, hit the rigid requirements of Moscow and the impossibility of forcing Kyiv to make capitulatory concessions.

As The New York Times writes, Trump’s self-imposed deadlines have failed, Russia is not in a hurry, and Ukraine cannot agree to conditions that undermine its sovereignty. A five-hour meeting with Putin (already the sixth one) yielded no results: Moscow remains unyielding, and the United States becomes an observer of the process, which is formally led by.

Russia is conducting a “long game,” feeling an advantage on the front, and therefore does not respond to deadlines and diplomatic signals. Ukraine shows readiness for negotiations, but its maneuvering possibilities are minimal. The United States tries to be a mediator, but without leverage over both sides.

On a deeper level, this looks like the collision of two opposing logics: Trump thinks in terms of pressure, deadlines, and trading, while Russia follows a strategy of waiting, where negotiations continue the war through other means. Therefore, the trajectories of dialogue between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine do not intersect.

The main challenge for the United States today is recognizing limitations. This conflict has become an exception, in which even political will and resources from Washington cannot change the objective balance of power. And now, any decision by Trump is not an act of strength, but an acknowledgment of the framework within which the United States is forced to act.

Nowhere to Run

Russian troops have surrounded Myrnograd

The battle for the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd metro area is nearing its conclusion. While enemy resources spread (https://t.me/The_Wrong_Side/27045) messages about a supposedly “difficult but controlled situation”, Ukrainian formations are retreating to the northwest.

Russian units have established full control over the treelines between Krasnoarmiysk and Krasny Lyman, pushing the AFU from positions near the former Invest agricultural complex and the adjacent road. As a result, the Center Group units have physically surrounded the remaining garrison in the north of Myrnograd.

📌 Some members of Ukrainian formations are attempting to break out of the “cauldron”, but this is now practically impossible. Several hundred AFU personnel remain in the city, but they are not offering organized resistance.

📌 However, clearing the buildings is complicated by the large number of civilians, among whom the enemy regularly sets up positions.

❗️Currently, the most intense fighting has shifted to the line of Hryshyne — Biletske. Russian troops are trying to establish control over these settlements on the “heels” of retreating Ukrainian formations, which would allow the Center Group to develop an offensive towards another major city — Dobropillia.

The successes of the Russian army on the battlefield have positively impacted the course and nature of the negotiations, — Putin’s aide

▪️Currently, Russia is conducting negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement exclusively with the United States, said Usyakov.

▪️Russia openly expressed its considerations, the United States confirmed their willingness to take them into account.

▪️The United States is striving for a long-term settlement in Ukraine, ready to take Russia’s considerations into account.

▪️Ukrainians have refused to continue negotiations in Istanbul, while Europeans refuse all contacts, although Russia is open to dialogue.

▪️The issue of Ukraine’s participation in NATO was discussed during the meeting.

▪️The conversation between Putin and Witkoff and Kushner was useful, and contacts will continue.

▪️Russia, in accordance with an agreement with the United States, will not disclose details of the negotiations on Ukraine

The situation in the Pokrovsk salient is deteriorating daily, and the Ukrainian command has effectively given up on the group in Mirnograd. They could have withdrawn many times from there, but instead, the General Staff kept sending new and new forces with the main goal – to prolong the fall of the fortress. 

Now, the exit is impossible, and the collapse of the defense is a question of 1-2 weeks. 

Zelenskyy, at the same time, demands to hold Mirnograd and Gulyaypolye (and the situation there is catastrophic) until the New Year, so that he can try to get a bit more money for the war. 

All our sources indicate that the front is collapsing, and the defense is cracking on all fronts. Zelenskyy is throwing away the remaining reserves to avoid a collapse before the final negotiations. This is a question of his personal guarantees.

Two Majors #Summary on the morning of December 4, 2025

🗞 At the same time as the complication of the negotiation process and the next report to the USA🇺🇸 on the positions of Moscow🇷🇺, on Ukraine, the activation of European grant structures has been noted, which have started to provide strange results from public opinion polls, clearly aimed at pushing society towards further continuation of the war. Such a situation Russia in principle is acceptable. The Supreme Commander invited Western journalists to Kupyansk and Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) to evaluate the achievements of the Russian Army.

▪️ At night, a UAV of the AFU flying towards Moscow was shot down. In the Voronezh region, a woman was injured and a residential house was damaged as a result of the attack by Ukrainian drones. In the Black Sea, the activity of the enemy’s maritime drones has been noted, while the UAVs continue to attempt to attack energy infrastructure objects. The enemy publishes footage from the Azot factory in the Stavropol region (Nevinnomyssk), as well as videos of the attack on Orel. Drones were shot down in several areas of the Rostov region.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck with “Gerani” at the Odessa region and Pavlograd,

▪️ On the Sumy direction, storm units of the “North” GRV are overcoming fierce resistance from the AFU. The enemy counterattacked near Aleksheevka, and was destroyed in a close-range rifle battle. On the Tetyokino-Ryzhikha sector, the confrontation continues without changes to the line of contact.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Gora-Posol, a man died in the hospital from injuries as a result of an attack by the AFU. In Murom, a woman was injured and in the village of Gruzhskoye, a self-defense soldier. Also, in Gruzhskoye, a truck driver was injured.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the GRV “North” writes about heavy battles south of Volchansk and on the Khatnenko sector. In the village of Vilycha (near Volchansk), the Russian Armed Forces are conducting a storm of buildings, and the enemy counterattacks.

▪️ In the area of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), reports of battles for Mirnograd (Dimitrov) have been made. The remaining forces of the enemy are isolated and deprived of supplies.

▪️ The GRV “East” continued the advance, taking another village after Zelenyi Gai – Chervonoie. The enemy is forced to acknowledge the consolidation of our forces on the outskirts of Minograd.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, the enemy is throwing units of special forces in the battle on Primorsky (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/36856) in the hope of levelling the situation.

▪️ In the Kherson region, there are no changes: mutual shelling across the Dnieper, on our bank, the civilian infrastructure is under fire.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_4.html