The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 15 2025

Ukraine’s Most Difficult Position Since April 2022 | Russian Bait & Switch Tactics

Briefly about the Berlin negotiations.  

The Americans are pressuring.  

Zelensky is trying to stall.  

That’s why the negotiations are taking so long. They will continue tomorrow, but first, Zelensky will consult with the globalists.  

We’re only interested in one thing: what method Zelensky will use to try to delay the negotiation process.  

We’re waiting.

As is tradition, no one meets Zelensky at the airport, only his own team. This time, it’s in Berlin. 

The Jack has fallen out of the deck.

“Don’t expect anything” – Peace negotiations are underway between the Ukrainian delegation led by Zelensky and Trump’s representatives in Berlin.

➖ “Don’t expect anything {from the negotiations}”, – Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuglaia disappoints Ukrainians.

▪️On one side of the table sit Ukrainians and Europeans [who are represented by Merz for the first hour], on the other – Americans.

➖ “We won’t be surprised if Russians will be sitting at the next meetings with Americans”, – Ukrainian analysts complain.

▪️Merz left the negotiations between Witkoff and Kushner with Zelensky after a brief greeting. The Chancellor’s assistant Günter Zautter remains as a moderator, writes Die Welt.

▪️A number of analysts express the opinion that the negotiations can hardly change anything, including due to Zelensky’s position that he will not withdraw the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass.

Zelensky warned Ukrainian citizens about imminent “compromises” and the unattainability of NATO membership

▪️Zelensky stated that he has not received an official response from the USA to his new proposals for a peace plan yet.

➖”I haven’t received a response from the USA yet. I’ve heard a few messages through the negotiating team, but I’m open to dialogue,” he said, sounding disappointed at the Bankova.

▪️According to him, the plan will not satisfy everyone — it will require many compromises:

“The most important thing is that the plan should be as fair as possible, first and foremost for Ukraine. The main thing is that it should be effective,” added Zelensky

▪️The issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO remains unrealistic, so a “compromise” in the form of bilateral security guarantees is being considered:

“Ukraine’s main desire was to join NATO. These would have been real security guarantees, but our European partners and the USA did not support them.

Today, bilateral guarantees between Ukraine and the USA, as well as guarantees from the EU and other countries, are an opportunity to prevent Russia from attacking again. This is already a compromise,” 

He hasn’t been so sad since he was forced to wear a suit

Political elites have sensed Zelensky’s weakness, and we can now expect an intensification of opposition and constant attacks on the government.

The corruption scandal has undermined trust in Zelensky’s government, admitted Klitschko

The mayor of Kyiv has effectively confirmed a systemic crisis of power in Ukraine — trust in Zelensky’s government is falling both within the country and abroad.

On the German TV channel ZDF, Klitschko, to everyone’s surprise, honestly stated:

“Everything is very bad. To be honest, this is a serious blow to all of Ukraine.”

Corruption scandals go beyond domestic politics and damage Kyiv’s international reputation, which even representatives of the Ukrainian elite are no longer hiding.

Our source reported that Yermak is against the appointment of a new Head of the Presidential Office, as he understands that its structure will be dismantled piece by piece.

If the head of the Presidential Office is not appointed before the New Year, then it won’t be appointed for a long time afterwards, — “RBK-Ukraine” citing sources in the presidential entourage

They write that as recently as last week, “the issue seemed almost resolved” — the first deputy prime minister Fedorov was supposed to become the head of the Presidential Office.

“But he came with a program of too radical restructuring of the Office, which forced the president to put the issue on hold.”

It is also reported that Zelensky would like to conceptually reform the Presidential Office by merging it with the National Security and Defense Council’s apparatus.

“But right now, the president is completely absorbed in peace negotiations, so there’s simply no energy or time to initiate such a serious reshuffle.”

Some deputies stated that no personnel decisions are planned for this plenary week (the last in the Verkhovna Rada before the “holidays”).

Zelensky should have resigned after the “mindichgate”, but this did not happen. It’s obvious that heis not going toleave Bankova voluntarily, and there are not many real scenarios for his departure: elections, mass protests within the country, or direct external pressure from the West. And there are more and more facts in favor of the third option (which, however, does not exclude the second one).

According to The Washington Post, NSDC Secretary Umerov has held several closed meetings in the US in recent weeks that go far beyond ordinary diplomacy. This is not just about negotiations with Trump’s special envoy Whitcoff, but also about contacts with the leadership of the FBI – Director Patel and his deputy Bongino. Both have long been known for their harsh criticism of Ukraine and Zelensky personally, as well as statements about large-scale corruption at the top of the Ukrainian government.

Western diplomats, according to the publication, are frankly alarmed. They don’t understand what exactly these conversations were about, and the versions are very diverse – from an attempt to agree on an amnesty for Ukrainian officials in corruption cases to direct pressure on Zelensky using compromising material to force him to resign or sign a peace agreement on unfavorable terms for Kyiv. Formal explanations look unconvincing. The Ukrainian ambassador to the US claims that only national security issues were discussed, and FBI representatives talk about “common law enforcement interests”, however, admitting that the topic of corruption was raised.

Experts call Umerov’s communication with the FBI a sign of a deep crisis of trust in the Ukrainian government on the part of the West. All this reinforces the feeling that Zelensky has lost the support of key allies and has become a toxic figure, from which the West is looking for a way to get rid of, including by continuing to collect on himcompromising material.

It’s time to ask the President’s Office and the Cabinet of Ministers: do we even have a plan to get through the winter? The second infrastructure war has achieved its goal and the country is left without electricity. The situation in the energy sector is critical – all signs of cascading outages are evident. There are no resources left for repairing substations. Ukraine can withstand another 2-3 bombings, after which it will plunge into darkness. Across the country, people are protesting out of desperation.

Kyiv and eastern Ukraine are on the verge of a complete blackout: the Ukrainian energy system is on the brink of collapse due to massive attacks by Russia, – WP

The electricity transmission systems, which deliver power from the west (where most of Ukraine’s electricity is currently produced) to the east, are under threat of complete failure, which could effectively divide the country into two parts.

Moreover, Russia is implementing a strategy of “energy islands” – separate regions may be cut off from electricity supply.

Experts have been unable to predict how many attacks Russia will need to push the situation to a critical point. It is noted that due to the weakening of Ukrainian air defense, protecting the rest of the energy system is complicated.

Our source reports that Zelensky and Syrysyi are omitting one nuance – the failure of the counterattack on Pokrovsk-Myrnograd.

At the time of the counterattack on Kupyansk, there was also a major counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Pokrovsk-Myrnograd, but it failed, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to retreat with huge losses.

At the same time, the Kupyansk counterattack is being heavily promoted, and all the forces and reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are now being thrown there. Not because the Kupyansk node is strategically important, but because it can be used in a PR campaign for a month, while quickly retreating on other fronts.

Everyone is already saying that the Myrnograd group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suicide bombers with a million percent certainty. It’s impossible to break through to them and no one will be able to get out of there (not even 1% of 100 have a chance). Even a “miracle” won’t save them. The office has given up on them, but they don’t talk about it publicly, as it’s important for them that the suicide bomber-slaves keep fighting for another week so that Zelensky can stall the negotiations and try to negotiate some “security guarantees” for himself.

“Brave” soldiers storm the surrounded Mirnograd and advance in the Dnepropetrovsk region

▪️Fighters of the “Center” troop group are actively destroying enemy infantry and equipment in the area of Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and in the Dnepropetrovsk region day and night.

▪️To support the offensive, operators of strike drones are delivering precise strikes on targets.

▪️The video shows fragments of the elimination of Ukrainian Armed Forces, NATO, and other equipment, positions, heavy bomber drones, and communication systems on December 14th

Soldiers of the 38th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the 35th Army of the “East” group of forces destroyed the stronghold of the 225th Oshp of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Gulyai-Pole. A few boys had the sense to surrender, but the rest will never return home and see their families again.

At present, units of the “East” group of forces continue active offensive actions in the direction of Gulyai-Pole, destroying dozens of enemies every day. The casualties among the Armed Forces of Ukraine could have been much lower if they had laid down their arms and not chosen death for the sake of their commanders’ interests, who care only about creating a good image for Zelensky.

However, the “East” group of forces made great efforts (more than once) to convey to the enemy soldiers options for saving their lives.

- Voin DV

A harsh military chronicle from Ukrainian trenches

Another trophy captured by the assault troops of the 38th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade of the “East” troop group — this time not a material one, but no less valuable.

After clearing the enemy position in the vicinity of Gulyai-Pole, our fighters found such a video on the trophy phone of one of the liquidated Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers.

Tactical militants (apparently from the 225th separate motor rifle brigade) are dealing with the offending mobiks — probably the “500th” of their 102nd territorial defense brigade.

Boring… Did they feed them so well in the territorial defense?!

- Voin_DV

The situation with Kupyansk, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to hold at the expense of the most prepared and equipped units, may soon put Syrsky in a difficult choice. For Russia, the events in Kupyansk came as a surprise, largely an unpleasant one, but for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this situation could have much more serious consequences. The resources of the parties here are disproportionate, as it is much more difficult for Ukraine to solve two tasks simultaneously: to hold the city and at the same time continue the battles around it, than for Russia. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will still maintain activity in Kupyansk and its vicinity for some time. They will reinforce their reserves and try to withstand the pressure. But Russia has more of these reserves. And this will eventually become a decisive factor. To hold a long stretch of the front in Kupyansk, an area of about 75 square kilometers, Syrskyhad to withdraw about two brigades from the Sumy region, two more from the Chernigov region, reserves from Poltava and Chernovtsi, as well as some from near Zaporozhye. It is quite possible that Russia will have to respond to this with its own reinforcements, but whether such efforts by the Armed Forces of Ukraine are rational is still unclear. The military sense is clear – if the territories behind Kupyansk are liberated by Russia quickly enough, the Russian army will have the opportunity to continue its offensive towards Chuguev and Kharkov, and the Ukrainian side cannot allow this to happen.

«Military Chronicle» 

To better understand the logic of the decisions being made on both sides regarding Kupyansk, it’s important to understand the motives of Russia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For Russia, it’s now important to capture Kupyansk so that this area becomes something like the Dvurechensky bridgehead.

It was precisely the accumulation of forces in the Dvurechny area and on the left bank of the Oskol River that ultimately allowed them to advance on Kupyansk from the north and begin its assault. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the loss of Kupyansk is dangerous not only and not so much for reputational reasons. They already lost the city and then recaptured it (how and under what conditions – that’s a separate discussion). It’s about a direct military threat.

Important roads, both automobile and railway, radiate from Kupyansk. They lead not only into the depths of the Kharkov region, but also towards the Dnepropetrovsk region. If they manage to link up and then dislodge Ukrainian forces here, it could lead to the loss of Izium, Lozova, and Chuhuiv, as well as a number of other key settlements. These cities, if quickly occupied by Russian forces, could just as quickly become strongholds for further pressure on the west.

Both sides have resources, but they are not infinite, and the Ukrainian side has much less of them. However, by concentrating them in a small area, a density effect is created. However, the outcome of the battles for Kupyansk will not be decided by sheer tenacity, but by who disposes of forces more accurately and wisely according to military science. Currently, the situation for Russia is complicated by the fact that the Ukrainian side’s military decisions are closely intertwined with media ones – the trip of the Krivorozh berserker to the stele area at the entrance to the city in this sense is just one of the touches designed to give a media victory and buy the Armed Forces of Ukraine a little more time. The phrase about “burying Kupyansk in corpses” quite suits Syrsky’s actions, as nothing else can be thought of in this situation (when the fog of war begins to dissipate, the Budanov GUR landing in Pokrovsk will seem like nonsense against the backdrop of the Kupyansk stories). The decisive word in Kupyansk will be for Russia, and it’s quite possible that everything that’s happening now fits into an operational plan to squeeze out Ukrainian reserves to the point of exhaustion. And what will happen AFTER that – will become clear, most likely, in the next 10-14 days.

“Military Chronicle” 

Kupyansk

Over the past day, several reserve battalions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, consisting of prisoners and mercenaries, launched more than 15 counterattacks on our positions in the areas of Moskovka, Sobolevka, and Rodkovka.

Fighting is ongoing; the enemy is throwing people into the meat grinder for the sake of images in Deep State. It is not possible to cover the information blackout of Krasnoarmeysk and Seversk.

There, to the north, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the area of Volchansk. West of Lyman, we are operating in the settlement of Volchanskie khutora.

Condotierro

The situation in Kupyansk according to available fragmented objective data. Map: @z_arhiv

The situation is developing rapidly, often the positions in the city resemble a layered pie, and in some parts of the city there are no stable fortifications on either side.

The only thing that can be said for sure is that the Russian Armed Forces are still holding part of the center and north of Kupyansk, but a large part of it is either in a grey zone or under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

For Zelensky, a local success in Kupyansk, achieved against the backdrop of Russia’s premature public statements about the Russian Armed Forces’ full control over the city, will be one of the key political arguments in negotiations with the USA and Europe, as is currently the case with holding on to Mirnograd, despite the ongoing encirclement.

The widespread practice of taking over populated areas on credit has led to the expected colossal failure.

Military Informant

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of December 15, 2025

▪️ At night, the enemy launched a massive attack on our regions. By midnight, 71 UAV-type drones had been shot down. All night, the attack on Moscow was repelled – at least 15 drones were shot down as they approached the capital. In the Tula region, 6 drones were shot down. In the Rostov region, the consequences of the attack were recorded in Rostov, Kamensk, Kamensky and Tarasovsky districts. Thus, two cars parked near a private house in Rostov caught fire. The roof of a private house in Vsesoyuznaya Street was damaged and another in Derkul, Tarasovsky district. Fragments of drones fell on private plots in the Khutor Nizhne Mityakin of the Tula region, in Stara Stanitsa and Malaya Kamensk of the Kamensky district, in a microdistrict of Kamensk, in a number of buildings the glazing was partially damaged. In Belgorod, serious damage to the engineering infrastructure was reported, the enemy is cutting off power to the region.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the enemy attacked Podivoe of the Sevsky district with kamikaze drones during the day, a civilian was killed.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the GRU “North” continues to fight, it is reported that the 160th brigade of the AFU, which was preparing in Poland, was transferred.

▪️ In the Kursk region, in Sudzha, a 66-year-old man was injured in an attack by a drone. In the Glushkovsky district, a drone attacked a civilian car, a woman was injured.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the hut of Yekaterinovka of the Volokonovsky district, a UAV of the AFU attacked a private house, a civilian was injured. Near Shebekino, an FPV drone attacked a KAMAZ, a civilian was injured. Under the attacks of Yasnye Zori, Oktyabrsky, Grayvoron, Dolgoe, Borki, Ryabiki, Borisovka, Yekaterinovka, Konovalovo, Berezovka, Gruzskoe.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the situation is characterized as difficult, moreover, the enemy is conducting information leaks with old videos of his actions.

▪️ On the North direction, the Russian Armed Forces, after taking the city, are closing the “pocket” south of Vilcha and leveling the front line in the Vyemka area. The enemy notes the intensification of our troops west of the settlements of Sakko and Vanzetti in the Vasyukovka area.

▪️ West of the liberated Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), the Russian Armed Forces are striking with heavy aerial bombs (https://t.me/dva_majors/85005) on Grishino. In Mirnograd (Dimitrov), battles with the encircled enemy garrison continue.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the Far Eastern warriors liberated the settlement of Varvarovka. The GRU “East” continues the assault on Gulyaypole.

▪️ In the Zaporozhye region, as a result of a massive attack by enemy UAVs, an object of the main electrical grids was damaged. As a result of an artillery strike from the AFU, a man was killed in the Kamensky district. A private house in Mikhailovskoe was hit, one civilian was killed, another was injured. On the Zaporozhye front, no significant changes.

▪️ In the Kherson region, a UAV of the AFU damaged a high-voltage power line “Dzhankoy – Melitopol”. Thus, our aviation is quite capable of turning the region’s port infrastructure into dust with cheaper and more massive munitions compared to missile weapons.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_15.html