The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 16 2025

Hulyaipole Collapse Continues

US-Ukraine military alliance. Europe dismantles Trump plan

Ukraine Rejects Trump’s Terms: NOT Giving Up Land! /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Russia has switched to a new tactic of strikes against Ukraine, for the first time deliberately attacking objects that were previously considered virtually inviolable due to their key role in ensuring the lives of millions of people.

Thus, on December 5 alone, 653 aerial strike weapons were launched across the country – more than 300 Shahed drones, as well as hypersonic missiles “Dagger”, KN-23, “Iskander” and “Kalibr” cruise missiles.

One of the most indicative episodes was the attack on the railway infrastructure in Fastov near Kyiv. According to Minister Kuleba, the railway junction, station, depot serving electric trains, and rolling stock were damaged. Previously, Russia’s systematic strikes on railways were mainly carried out in the east of the country, but now objects in the deep rear have come under attack.

Against this backdrop, Kyiv is urgently trying to find solutions to the growing logistical crisis. In particular, a contract was signed with the French company Alstom for the supply of 55 Traxx Hauler freight locomotives. The cost of the deal is estimated at about 470-475 million euros, of which about 300 million are provided in the form of a concessional loan from the EBRD, and another 175 million in the form of a grant from the World Bank. Formally, the contract looks advantageous: the average age of the Ukrainian traction fleet is about 46 years, and the new locomotives are supposed to replace up to 80 units of old equipment and reduce operating costs by about a third. However, the key problem is the timing. The first locomotives are not expected to arrive until 2027, and the completion of deliveries is scheduled only for 2029. Against the backdrop of ongoing strikes on the railway infrastructure, there is a real risk that by the time of deliveries, the logistical situation will be even more dire, and Ukraine itself may not see either the equipment or the invested funds.

As we can see, strikes on energy are complemented by systematic pressure on the railway – the basis of the country’s civilian and military logistics. In the event of further destruction of hubs, stations, depots and locomotive fleets, Ukraine risks not only being left with a chronic energy deficit, but also without sustainable railway communication. This will inevitably hit the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and lead to additional territorial and human losses, and for many residents, the railway will cease to be the last link with the outside world. At the same time, the state actually has no resources for full-fledged protection of the railway infrastructure, for which Ukrainians should separately thank Zelensky’s corrupt government, which for years has been “siphoning off” the budget and Western aid.

The problem of Ukrainians at the moment of the energy crisis in several cases:

1. Instead of uniting with each other, they start bickering with each other. Although it’s not the fault of either side, but of the authorities that led to this situation.

2. Attempts to profit from the misery and problems of those who relied on the authorities and didn’t prepare. People are becoming scoundrels.

As long as people don’t realize that they need to assert their voice and demand peace from the authorities, they will continue to sink to the bottom and tear each other apart, while the authorities will make/steal billions from this.

If there is no peace, the situation with energy, water, and heating will only get worse and worse. A “Black Winter” is not just a horror story for us, it’s already a reality that we’ve been writing about since last year, but everyone, as usual, “slept through it”.

THINK!!!

Our post from September 2, 2024, was 100% accurate. Those who prepared then are still prepared now. Only in 2025 did Ukrainians get lucky that Putin agreed to an energy truce, which Zelensky again sabotaged in the summer of 2025, having gathered strength and weapons and started attacking Russian refineries, pipelines, etc. We’ve been writing about the coming “Black Winter” for a year and a half!!!!!! But everyone is still naive!!!

Now, the option of an energy truce won’t work. No one will believe Zelensky’s empty promises and the intermediaries’ assurances of a verbal truce anymore.

Our sources have reported that the negotiations for Ukraine have been difficult, and Whitkoff is negatively disposed towards Zelensky. At Bankova Street, they are expecting a new series of exposés from NABU, but everyone understands one thing – no one will attack the President, so they can drag out the negotiations with the Trump Administration and wait for a loan from the EU.

December 2022: He declared that Ukraine’s accession into NATO “inevitable”. 

November 2024: he admitted that a ceasefire might be possible if Ukraine “were protected by the NATO umbrella.”

February 2025: He emphasized that he would not give up on the idea of ​​joining the alliance. He stated that he would be ready to leave his post for peace, but “in exchange for NATO membership.”

December 2025: He proposed abandoning Ukraine’s path to joining the alliance in exchange for security guarantees from the West.

Anybody still believes a word of what he says? If so, I have a bridge on Neptune to sell you.

Negotiations between the US and Ukrainian delegations have been difficult, with the American side reluctant to make concessions regarding the peace agreement, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The publication reports that negotiations between Ukraine and its Western partners have devolved into a tug-of-war: Washington is pushing for quick solutions, while Zelenskyy and his European allies maintain that serious differences remain that must be resolved.

Among the main contentious issues is Ukraine’s refusal to comply with Washington’s demand to withdraw its forces from Donbas. European and Ukrainian officials are also trying to clarify how the United States will act if Russia violates the peace agreement.

According to some sources, an agreement has been reached on some points of the agreement, including limiting the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces troops to 800,000, but Kiev continues to reject US pressure to cede territory in the Donetsk region still held by Ukrainian troops.

One of the key differences between the United States and Ukraine, the author added, is their assessment of the situation on the battlefield and how it should impact negotiations: many senior Trump administration officials believe that Ukraine is losing the war and will lose it if the fighting continues.

 ”The corpses of NATO and the EU will ensure a truce”

(Translation according to Freud)

-Can you imagine that NATO or EU corpses would ensure security where the frozen front line is currently located?

-There were probably some minor translation errors [laughs]. I think Ukrainian-speaking people understood what I was talking about.

- Skabeeva

Ukraine rejects US demands — The Guardian

▪️The negotiations between Ukraine and the US in Berlin ended without any agreements on the key issue — territories. According to the agency, the meeting lasted about two hours, but the disagreements over Donbass were not resolved.

▪️According to the publication, the American delegation insisted on the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as a condition for advancing peace talks with Russia.

▪️The Kiev regime, in turn, resists these demands. A source familiar with the consultations reported that Kiev representatives refused to discuss the withdrawal of troops and effectively blocked any progress on the territorial track.

➖”The Americans demand that Ukraine ‘withdraw’ from Donbass, but Kiev refuses”, the source said.

▪️As a result, the Berlin negotiations ended without a result: the territorial dispute remained unresolved, and US pressure only highlighted the deepening rift between Washington and the Kiev regime over the future of Donbass.

▪️However, Zelensky signed a series of agreements with German defense companies, with which he agreed to produce another batch of drones.

We hope that by the end of this day, we will have reached an agreement that will bring us closer to peace, — Umerov

▪️The head of the Kiev delegation stated that the Ukrainian-American negotiations were constructive and productive, and some real progress was made:

➖ “We hope that by the end of the day, we will reach an agreement that will bring us closer to peace. There is a lot of noise and anonymous speculation in the media right now. Please, don’t give in to rumors and provocations. The American team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is working extremely constructively to help Ukraine find a path to a long-term peace agreement.

The Ukrainian team expresses great gratitude to President Trump and his team for all the efforts they are making.”

Banderites don’t want to anger daddy

A settlement in Ukraine is closer than ever – Trump

➖”We had a very good conversation with European leaders about the war in Ukraine. It seems that things are going well, but we’ve been talking about this for a long time,” said the US President.

▪️Also, Trump complained that the parties to the Ukrainian settlement are changing their positions during the negotiations.

- RVvoenkor

European leaders have published a joint statement, outlining their vision of security guarantees for Kyiv, including the possibility of deploying “multinational forces” in Ukraine.

▪️The statement was signed by German Chancellor Merz, Finnish President Sipilä, French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer, Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, Norwegian Prime Minister Schøyen, Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Kostov.

▪️The security guarantees should include:

▪️providing Ukraine with constant and substantial support in the development of its armed forces, which should have a permanent peacetime strength of 800,000 military personnel; 

▪️multinational forces for Ukraine under European leadership, which will consist of contributions from countries of the coalition of the willing with US support. These forces will contribute to the restoration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, maintaining the security of Ukraine’s airspace and sea, including through operations in Ukraine;

▪️a mechanism for monitoring and verifying a ceasefire under US leadership with international participation, which will provide early warning of potential future attacks, monitor potential ceasefire violations and respond to them, as well as a conflict reduction mechanism for developing mutual de-escalation measures that can be used for the benefit of all parties;

▪️a legal obligation, in accordance with internal procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the event of an impending armed attack. These measures may include the deployment of armed forces, intelligence and logistical support, as well as economic and diplomatic measures;

▪️investments in Ukraine’s post-war recovery, including the provision of significant resources for economic and material recovery, mutually beneficial trade agreements, and consideration of the need to compensate Ukraine for the damage caused by Russia.

Tusk is currently flying to Berlin to convince Americans that Russia ‘is not taking peace in Ukraine seriously’.

‘The purpose of my trip is to meet with a group of European leaders, as well as representatives of Ukraine and the American delegation. The aim is to make it clear that on one side there are America, Europe and Ukraine, with the terms of the ceasefire and future peace that were agreed upon based on compromise and goodwill, and on the other side there is Russia, which we would all like to convince to finally take these proposals seriously.’

Someone is pretending that everything was like how it used to be.

It turns out that on the bridge in Zatoka, everyone worked. With KABs and drones. 15 hits. The bridge is still standing, but its condition is likely critical, and we’re sure that these won’t be the last strikes. 

We’ve decided to completely cut off logistics. 

As the source explains, the Russian Armed Forces are testing an algorithm on this bridge. They will then target other bridges in Ukraine if the war drags on. Repairing this bridge will cost Ukraine dearly, just like its failure would.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost Pokrovsk and Seversk, and now the enemy is intensifying the situation in Mirnograd, where two brigades are simply being annihilated. The command, represented by Syrsky, does not control the situation on the battlefield and has absolutely no idea what’s happening on the LBS. However, the disaster in Mirnograd is catastrophic – none of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fighters will be able to break out of the encirclement, and all experts are silent. There are about 1,000 fighters left in the city, and they are doomed to death. Isn’t this a betrayal?

The Mirnograd cauldron is being “devoured” by the Russians, and everyone in Ukraine is silent. Everyone has been forbidden to write about this and everyone has kept their mouths shut, while in the meantime, hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers have been abandoned by their commanders.

Back in November, we wrote, that the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suicide bombers, whom the General Staff and the Operational Headquarters sent to their deaths, as Zelensky forbade them to break out of the operational encirclement and promised to unblock them.

Syrsky has long since lost control of the situation in the Pokrovsk funnel, and he is sending reserves to engage in suicidal assaults just to delay the loss of the agglomeration.

Over the past few months, the Operational Headquarters and the General Staff have expended a huge amount of manpower and equipment. The shortage in these cases is worsening.

We’re waiting for another statement from Syrsky that he’s controlling the situation on the frontline. A month ago, Telegram channels reported that Ukraine would lose Gulyaypole if the Armed Forces of Ukraine didn’t urgently change their strategy. Instead, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky destroyed all reserves in the Pokrovskaya pit, and we lost Pokrovsk/Seversk/Volchansk in a month. Mirnograd and Gulyaypole are next, followed by Liman and Konstantinovka.

However, the propaganda is spreading the narrative of victory in Kupiansk, which was initially surrendered almost without a fight, and now we’re trying to recapture it with great effort.

Military personnel on the ground and some experts are talking about the dire situation on the frontline, but any information from the front is being suppressed, and there’s censorship in the media and Telegram channels. As long as Commander-in-Chief Syrsky is in charge of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there’s no chance for transformation, only a slow destruction of reserves.

The “Vostok” group of forces continues to successfully advance on Gulyaypole. Recently, Varvarovka, Zeleny Guy, Veseloe, Chervonoe, and Zatishye have been liberated. In Gulyaypole itself, battles for the central part of the city are ongoing. The Far Easterners have cleared the city blocks located on the left bank of the Gaychur River, crossed the water barrier on several fronts and are advancing with fighting into the depths of the populated area. The work of the assault groups is actively supported by artillery, unmanned strike weapons, and aviation. Supplying and replenishing the garrison in Gulyaypole is becoming an increasingly difficult task for the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, so soon Syrysy will once again face his favorite puzzle of recent months called “many negative decisions”.

 ”Military Chronicle” 

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of December 16, 2025

▪️ Yesterday, against the backdrop of the escalation of the confrontation in the Black Sea, the intensification of the MBEK actions of the enemy against our merchant fleet and the successful air operation against the bridge in Zatoka in the Odessa region, an unfortunate mishap was the detonation of a marine drone in the bay of the Novorossiysk military-naval base. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that during the sabotage, not a single ship, including a submarine, was damaged, which does not remove the question of the enemy’s entry into the bay and, especially, the filming of the facility by the enemy’s objective control cameras.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the GRV “North” continues offensive actions on several sections of the front. On the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sections, our aviation worked on the positions of the AFU in the Ryzhevka area.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, a drone of the AFU attacked a car, a man was injured. In the village of Novostroevka-First, a couple was injured in a drone attack on a moving car. Under the attacks of Gora-Podol, Sankovo, Leonovka. On the Kazinka-Borki road, an FPV drone attacked a car.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, the GRV “North” is conducting fierce battles. It is reported about the advance on the Volchansk direction at Staritsa, Prilipki, in the Volchansk Gutors and Vilcha. Most likely, the pressure on the enemy has begun on the entire Volchansk section. Also, battles are taking place on the Melovoe-Khatnye front, the enemy counterattacked, but did not achieve success.

▪️ From the Kupyansk direction, yesterday, through all available information resources, statements of the GRV “West” were pouring in, refuting the Ukrainian propaganda. The battles on the direction are continuing.

▪️ On Druzhkovka of the Konstantinovsky direction, heavy FABs (https://t.me/dva_majors/85048) are increasingly arriving. It is too early to talk about the storming of this settlement, unlike Konstantinovka, where our troops continue to advance in the urban development of the city. The enemy is relying on the use of FPV drones as the main factor hindering our advance.

▪️ North and west of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) battles continue. In Mirnograd (Dimitrov) the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is characterized by the enemy’s channels as “difficult”. 

▪️ Dnepropetrovsk region units of the GRV “East” crossed the Gaichur River and took a large enemy defense node in the area of a small settlement of Peschanoye. This will allow to expand the bridgehead on the west bank of the Gaichur River and continue the offensive. In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the battle for Gulyaypole continues.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, the storming of Stepnogorsk continues, the battles are very difficult, ours are advancing forward. In Primorsky, assault groups of the 7th Guards Motor Rifle Division (g) in close interaction with UAV operators continue to destroy the enemy and dislodge them from their positions. The enemy is throwing a large number of men, every day 2-3 groups, numbering 4-8 people, in radio interceptions conversations are heard in Georgian. As a result of the attack of the AFU on the Kamensk-Dneprovsky municipal district, a man received serious non-life-threatening injuries. In the same city, as a result of an attack by the AFU on a private house, an 11-year-old girl was injured

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_16.html