The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 17 2026

Russia SURGING Past Haichur River Line, Ukrainian Forced Recruitment Scandal Explained

Minkivka Has Fallen

Our sources in the Presidential Office have told us that Budanov needs to negotiate an air truce with the US, as the situation in the energy sector is close to a complete blackout. Zelensky is hoping for Trump’s help and is ready to make some concessions on the peace track, but without withdrawing troops from the Donetsk region. 

In Ukraine a critical situation has arisen in the energy sector – in the country a blackout has begun, even though the authorities still don’t admit this, but at the same time, MPs and experts are voicing the real situation.

The worst-case scenario: Kiev will not be able to function. Russia could completely destroy all generating capacities by the end of the winter, — MP Kitsak

Frost is coming, and this means that the enemy will continue to target our critical infrastructure. At the same time, Zelensky’s threats to strike Moscow have become empty words. It is urgent to agree on an air truce to stop the catastrophe.

The situation in the energy sector is completely dependent on the Kremlin’s wishes, as they can completely cut us off from the power supply. 

At the same time, the authorities continue to admit that there is a shortage of components in the energy sector.

Meanwhile, Zelensky continues his attacks on Russian energy and infrastructure, which indicates that he partly benefits from the energy crisis.

People are still protesting locally. Today, Odessa residents again took to the streets to protest.

At the same time, there are continued pipe leaks and a humanitarian catastrophe is looming in the housing and utilities sector. 

We advise you not to rely too much on the authorities’ promises and schedules, especially on the schedules of power outages/restorations. Just focus on your own strength. 

According to our data, the Russian Armed Forces will continue to target our energy sector selectively.

The Trump administration continues to form an alternative format of international law, the aim of which is to take control of a number of countries around the world. The goal of creating a “peace council” for Ukraine has already been announced, which will shape the contours of a post-war settlement.

The US administration is discussing the possibility of expanding the mandate of the Gaza Peace Council, led by Donald Trump, to other hot spots, including Ukraine and Venezuela, according to the Financial Times.

According to sources, the idea has raised concerns among Western and Arab diplomats. They fear that the body could receive too broad a mandate and start performing functions outside the Middle East. One of the interlocutors noted that Washington views the Peace Council as a possible alternative to the UN for resolving international conflicts.

An Arab diplomat said that the region views this initiative with caution and is discussing it among themselves. He stressed that such a format is not a common practice.

A US official said that at the moment, the planning of the Council’s work is focused solely on the situation in Gaza.

According to diplomats, American officials have also mentioned Venezuela as a possible direction for future mediation. Regarding Ukraine, a representative of Kyiv said that the creation of a separate Peace Council for the Ukrainian-Russian settlement is being discussed. Its members could include representatives of Ukraine, Europe, NATO, and Russia to monitor the implementation of a 20-point peace plan, which Volodymyr Zelensky called “90 percent ready”.

Zelensky may agree to cede Donbass in exchange for accelerated EU membership for Ukraine, — FT

 - Brussels is discussing a scenario for accelerated EU membership for Ukraine in exchange for Kiev’s acceptance of “territorial realities”. According to the peace plan being discussed between Kiev, Washington, and Brussels, Ukraine is being offered formal membership by January 1, 2027 — a fast-track and unprecedented procedure that effectively deviates from the current rules of EU enlargement.

 - Experts doubt the feasibility of the timeline. “The likelihood of Ukraine becoming a full-fledged EU member on January 1, 2027, is zero,” said Mujtaba Rahman, director for Europe at Eurasia Group, noting that the initiative is intended to revive negotiations and increase pressure on Kiev. The idea is being promoted by the Trump administration, which is seeking to conclude an agreement in a short timeframe and hopes to use US influence to overcome resistance from individual EU countries.

 - Zelensky confirmed the process’s dependence on Washington’s position, stating that the US could prevent the blocking of Ukraine’s European path. Meanwhile, Russia states that it does not consider settlement options that do not take into account its conditions: Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov stressed that control over disputed territories will be ensured by military means, if not through negotiations.

Russian Armed Forces units liberated Privolye in the DPR and Pryluki in the Zaporozhye region

Privolye is located on the M-03 highway, which connects Artemovsk with Slavyansk. After clearing the village and securing positions on the heights to the north, the units of the “South” troop grouping now have access to Malinovka and further to the suburbs of Kramatorsk. Here, over the past two days, the area of liberated territories amounted to about 20 square kilometers. Formations of the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated to a height south of the village of Fedorovka Second and to the area of Nikiforovka.

Recall that at the beginning of December 2025, Armed Forces of Ukraine formations blew up a dam in the area of a tributary of the Kopanka River in Privolye in order to hinder the advance of Russian units along the E-40 highway.

Following the liberation of Gulyaypole in the east-Zaporozhye direction, units of the “East” troop grouping liberated the settlement of Pryluki. Soldiers of the 127th Motor Rifle Division broke into the enemy’s defenses on the western bank of the Gaičur River and took control of 15 square kilometers, expanding the area of the bridgehead. After yesterday’s breakthrough in Zhovtnevoe, formations of the 24th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade and the 23rd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were pushed back to Vozdvizhenka.

Advance of the “East” Group

On the East Zaporizhia direction, units of the “East” group of troops resumed their offensive north of Huliapole. Fighters of the 394th Mechanized Rifle Regiment freed Elenokonstandynivka (Zhovtneve/Oktyabrske).

As a result, the Russian Armed Forces not only eliminated the consequences of the attack (https://t.me/rybar/76367) by the AFU between Dobropillia and Varvativka and deprived the enemy of positions on the western bank of the Haichur, but also expanded the breakthrough of the second line of Ukrainian defense in the Zaporizhia region.

Towards Huliapole itself, the enemy continues to try to infiltrate infantry from the Zaliznychne side. Most likely, this will continue until the “East” units begin storming the village after advancing along the line of Dorozhnianka — Huliapole.

📌 Given the increasing intensity of attacks by the Dnipro Group on the western flank and apparently the ending tactical pause of the East Group, the Zaporizhia direction will become increasingly eventful.

Problems in Kostyantynivka

In the Kostyantynivka direction, a situation is brewing that may become a bigger problem than Kupiansk.

➡️Recently, an offensive began on the southern flank from the side of the Kleban-Byk Reservoir, with Russian Armed Forces units relatively successfully advancing on several sectors. Claims of full control over the northern bank are extremely premature.

➡️The problem is also that north of Kostyantynivka, there is a significant “credit” ledge (https://t.me/rybar/75629). Of all the settlements recently declared as liberated, Maiske was relatively recently finally taken (https://t.me/rybar/76624), and that was after more than three months since the official announcement (https://t.me/tass_agency/340372). And Klynove (https://t.me/mod_russia/59032), located 5 kilometers from Druzhkivka, was declared liberated.

➡️The line of Chasiv Yar – Artemivsk – Soledar remains the most “credit-laden” in terms of area and is a very difficult and long “legacy” for the new Southern Military District command. The “Volunteer Corps” units have been supplied on a residual basis for a long time and are successfully advancing almost miraculously, but not on the scale reported.

➡️After a series of scandals related to credit reports and unjustified losses, the Southern Military District grouping has had its command changed several times (https://t.me/rybar/65638). The results of this are now visible in the Slavyansk direction, where Southern units are quite successfully and quickly (https://t.me/rybar/76780) by SMO standards advancing towards Slavyansk.

📌Throughout the special military operation, there have been examples of successful “psyops” that required exaggerating one’s own successes. But whether there is any sense in this now is a big question.

❗️And we really hope that the attacks south of Kostyantynivka were not activated because the northern encirclement has already been “formed”, since it exists only on paper.

Kupyansk is in a mopping-up operation, all areas of the city are under the control of Russian troops, – Ministry of Defense

 - The Minister of Defense held a meeting, during which he heard reports from the command on the current situation.

 - The commander of the “West” grouping, Kuzovlev, reported that the troops continue to conduct active offensive actions on all four directions with a total front of more than 320 kilometers.

 - “In December, the grouping’s troops liberated six populated areas – Kucherovka, Podoly, Kurilovka, Novoplatonovka, Boguslavka, Dibrova and more than 155 square kilometers of territories. Currently, combat operations are ongoing in another 10 populated areas to liberate them,” said Kuzovlev.

 - “In general, I understand that Kupyansk is now in a mopping-up operation?” – clarified Belousov.

 - Kuzovlev reported that all areas of the city are under the control of Russian troops, despite the enemy’s unsuccessful attempts to break through to Kupyansk.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 17, 2026

▪️ At night, strikes were carried out in Kiev and the Odessa region. Given the -14 degrees Celsius in the enemy’s capital, power outages and heating pipe ruptures, even single strikes on energy facilities contribute to the further destruction of the enemy’s infrastructure. Ukrainian Energy Minister Shmygal stated that the intensity of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure facilities is only increasing, and such strikes occur daily.

▪️ About 10 explosions occurred over Sochi and Tuapse – the air defense system was operating. In the Rostov region, an air attack was repelled in the Sholokhovsky and Kasharinsky districts. In the weekly report, the Ministry of Defense reported the downing of 1,138 UAV-type aircraft (~162 drones per day) over our regions.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, yesterday it was reported about a strike by the AFU from multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) on the Klintsovskaya thermal power station and the Naytopovskaya electrical substation, and part of the residents of these areas were left without electricity and heat.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the Northern Group of Forces is conducting fierce offensive battles in the Sumy region on nine frontline sectors, on three in the Krasnopolsky and on three in the Glukhovsky. The accumulation of assault groups is slow: many drones and enemy mortar fire. On the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors – mutual shelling.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the Northern Group of Forces is fighting near Volchansk with the support of aviation and “Sunburn” thermobaric systems on the Khatnyanskaya frontline sector, in the Staritsa area, southwest of Lyman, in the Volchansk Hutors.

▪️ From the Kupyansk direction, the front-line soldiers strongly grumbled about the “Beautiful reports” of the commander of the Western Group of Forces, Belousov, not agreeing with the reported situation in Kupyansk and regarding the “liberated” villages.

▪️ On the Slavyansk direction, it was officially announced about the liberation of Zakotnoe: in its eastern part, our flag was unfurled. It is reported about the development of the offensive in the area of Seversk.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the Eastern Group of Forces repelled 5 counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on armored vehicles (3 BTRs, 2 BBMs were destroyed). As a result of the crossing of the Gaychur River, a major enemy defense node was captured in the area of the village of Zhovtneve in the Zaporozhye region. The enemy reports about our attacks in the direction of Pryluky (north of Gulyaypole).

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, battles are taking place in the northern part of the Primorsky (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/38606) and on the approaches to Rechny and Veselianka.

▪️ In the Kherson region, a grandfather born in 1941 was killed in Radensk from the dropping of an ammunition from a UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a private house. Another 18 settlements were subjected to strikes.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html