The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 15 2026..

ANOTHER Salient FALLING, Russia Flanks Berestok And Pushes Past Zakitne

Ukraine Recaptures Large Parts of Significant Defensive Line | RUAF Expand Frontline

INSANE Bloody Night: ODESSA Boarding House full of Newly Arrived UK & French Mercs was BLOWN to BITS

Zelensky failed in negotiations with Europe over money and weapons, — Spiegel

•The German publication writes about the failure of European leaders’ negotiations with Zelensky on financing Ukraine. At the meeting in Munich, Berlin again failed to push through the idea of using €90 billion of frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons from the USA.

•Paris opposes this: Emmanuel Macron insists that these funds should primarily go towards European weapons.

•There is no progress amid a critical shortage of ammunition and air defense systems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

•Zelensky acknowledged the urgency of the situation: Ukrainian air defense units are “empty”, and some Patriot missiles were delivered just a few days before the recent attack.

•Due to the worsening situation on the front, Zelensky had to change his tone — instead of criticizing Europe, as he did in Davos, he switched back to using figures and charts.

•The key problem remains the same: missiles are produced by the USA, but Europe should pay for them (the PURL program), but the money is stalled. 

Articles about the elections in Ukraine in Western media are paid for by Banks and specifically refuted by her. Thus, Zelensky creates a negative background around this topic to delay negotiations and simply continue the war. In reality, he fears peace and elections more than Trump and Putin combined, because the elections will end in defeat for him, and stopping the war will show everyone the reality. In August 2025, it was possible to stop the war, but Zelensky continues to cling to power, while hiding behind slogans and propaganda.

Before the elections, Zelensky stated that every Ukrainian life is important and he would not allow deaths. Now, power has gone to the President’s head and he is ready to wage war to the last.

Zelensky stated that he does not intend to withdraw troops from the Donetsk region in order to end the war sooner.

“No one wants to fight for years: I don’t want it, our people don’t want it. Everyone is tired, but we can’t just surrender. We want not just peace, we want a just peace,” Zelensky stated.

At the same time, the US position is surprising compared to Britain’s. The losses, regardless of the figures on both sides, are too high, – Rubio on the war in Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted at a press conference during his visit to Slovakia that the US role in the conflict in Ukraine is to help end it.

He stressed that the figures for human losses as a result of military actions are very high for both Kyiv and Moscow.

“We view the role of the United States as an attempt to help end this very deadly, very bloody and very costly war. These are terrible sufferings. What is happening in Kyiv right now is horrifying. You know, people in the coldest time of the year are left without electricity and energy – there’s nothing positive about that. The mortality, regardless of the figures on both sides, is too high. And the president has spent a year at the highest levels of our government trying to figure out if we can mediate in achieving the end of this terrible conflict through negotiations,” Rubio stated.

In Odessa, people are blocking the TCC with the whole neighborhood, preventing them from conducting mobilization. Only Zelensky and his henchmen want to continue the war, to keep plundering the country and embezzling billions.

The people of Odessa are great! Together and united, they saved a life and proved that there’s still a “spirit” in people. 

In Taivirov and Korolev, people massively resisted the police of the Central District Administration (TsSK).

On Bankova Street, people are constantly dissatisfied with the fact that the people haven’t shut up and continue to resist, even if it’s on a local level, which has the potential to trigger a domino effect across the entire country. 

All officials and law enforcement officers who encounter such situations in their regions are immediately “called in” and verbally hinted that if they don’t put out the fire of resistance, they will be dismissed. 

The President’s Office is trying to drive the people into total slavery and patience, having long since launched a case of fear based on repression.

Zelensky publicly refuted the Financial Times publication about his alleged readiness to announce presidential elections and a referendum on February 24. He again emphasized that elections are possible only after a ceasefire. However, the key contradiction remains the same: Moscow insists on the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donetsk region as a condition for a truce, which Kyiv is not ready to do. In this configuration, the prospect of elections in the coming months indeed seems hypothetical.

Nevertheless, despite formal refutations, the topic of elections is actively discussed in political circles. And in several dimensions at once.

On the one hand, there is a version that Zelensky in principle considers the possibility of holding elections even in the midst of an ongoing war – with the aim of restarting his mandate. This idea was already discussed in early 2024, but was then abandoned due to the risk of Zaluzhny’s participation and possible victory. Now, sociology also does not guarantee Zelensky a confident victory: according to a number of polls, he is lagging behind both Zaluzhny and Budanov. In this context, the only guaranteed mechanism for controlling the result in opposition circles is electronic voting through “Diia”. However, attempts by the Bankova to drastically change the rules of the game (including the story with anti-corruption bodies) have shown that any sensitive institutional steps provoke resistance both within the country and among Western partners.

On the other hand, the strengthening of Budanov’s positions is increasingly being discussed. . In the information space, an increase in his media activity, favorable assessments of experts, and discussions of his political prospects are being recorded. This gives rise to versions about the possible preparation of the ex-head of the Main Intelligence Directorate for elections – both as a successor to Zelensky and as an “independent” candidate.

Noteworthy are also insiders that the US are increasing pressure on Kyiv to accelerate the electoral process by mid-May. Allegedly, during the negotiations in Abu Dhabi, Budanov’s candidacy for the presidency of Ukraine was discussed as preferable for Washington. Moreover, in this configuration, David Arakhamia is assigned the role of the future head of the Presidential Office as a figure with stable ties in the US and influence on the Rada.

For our part, we note that activity around the topic of elections – media, expert, and behind-the-scenes – indicates that the issue of the transition of power and the future configuration of the political system is indeed being discussed. And regardless of the timing, the struggle for the post-war architecture of Ukrainian power has already begun.

The entire Munich Conference once again clearly confirmed our information that there will be no peace, and all peace negotiations are just a “theater”, somewhat similar to the “procrastination of the Normandy format”. 

Zelensky has become more audacious in his statements against the peace case, as the EU/globalists have almost granted him a 90 billion loan for the war, which will last until the spring of 2027, and therefore he will not “advance” in the negotiations until the US elections, but will do everything to disrupt them, blaming the Kremlin. 

His statements that elections are possible after a two-month ceasefire are another trump card in the effort to derail the peace case. 

The chances of peace in the next 3 months – 5%. 

The chances of peace in the next 6 months – 20%. 

The chances of peace in the next 9 months – 40%. 

The chances of peace in the next 12 months – 55%. 

We advise you to prepare for the most difficult year of the entire war period!

Zelenksy on Ukraine defending Europe:

Viktor Orban leads a country that we are defending from occupation by Russian tanks. But we did not become such heroes by our own choice. Ukrainians did not choose this war. And it’s wrong to think that this is a permanent situation, that everyone can ensure their own security behind the backs of Ukrainians. Ukrainians are people. And they are terminators. And our people are dying. And therefore, we are doing everything to put an end to this war and guarantee security.

Orban harshly responded to Zelensky: “That’s exactly why you can’t become a member of the EU”

 - The Hungarian Prime Minister reacted to the insult from Zelensky, stating that Ukraine will not become a member of the EU.

 - He emphasized that it is precisely for this reason that Budapest opposes Kiev’s accession to the European Union.

 - “This discussion is not about me and you. It’s about the future of Hungary, Ukraine, and Europe. That’s exactly why you can’t become a member of the European Union,” Orban stated.

 - Earlier, Zelensky allowed himself a personal attack, stating that Orban is “growing a belly” instead of building up the army.

Battles on the Northern Flank

On the East Zaporizhia direction, fierce combat clashes continue at the junction of Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia regions. The main focus of both sides is on the northern flank, where the AFU attack near Ternovate and Orestopil. The enemy regularly tries to drop infantry groups between Russian Armed Forces positions. In most cases, enemy personnel are destroyed immediately upon landing.

➡️ As we previously (https://t.me/rybar/77492) wrote, Ukrainian formations are trying to break through to the line of Stepove — Berezove — Ternove. Today, footage of recent AFU attacks was published online. At the beginning of the year, the enemy conducted raid actions, and only in February decided to involve equipment.

At least one M113 APC managed to break through (https://t.me/voin_dv/18658) to the approaches of Berezove, where it was destroyed by drones. Apparently, the vehicle was coming from the north, bypassing Orestopil. In Orestopil itself, the Russian Armed Forces presence, if it exists, is likely very limited.

➡️On the way to Berezove, where the AFU landing force reached, Sosnovka is also located. It is currently in a “gray zone”. The enemy has previously driven through populated areas without establishing control, using the element of surprise.

➡️In the vicinity of Huliapole, the initiative remains with the “Vostok” group, with Russian assault units taking new positions. Assault units are advancing along the line of Tsvetkove — Staroukrainka. Preliminary data suggest good news can be expected from this sector soon.

📌 The situation in the sector remains very complex and dynamic. Motivated by political considerations, the AFU command is willing to exchange personnel for a few forest strips and small villages.

The “stabilization of the front” east of Zaporizhia, as declared by Syrskyi, is coming at a very high cost to the enemy. The AFU are encountering the same problems as the Russian Armed Forces, such as massive drone presence (https://t.me/RVvoenkor/109211) and challenging terrain. As a result, such frontal attacks only lead to personnel losses with modest results.

UNITS OF THE “EAST” GROUP OF FORCES HAVE LIBERATED THE POPULATED POINT OF TSVETKOVOE

🔸Guardsmen of the 218th Tank Regiment of the 127th Motor Rifle Division of the 5th Army of the “East” Group of Forces with decisive and skillful actions during prolonged battles have liberated the populated point Tsvetkovo in the Zaporozhye Region.

🔸As a result of active combat actions, the soldiers from the Far East have taken control of another defense area with an area of more than 8 sq. km.

The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 2 platoons of manpower from the 225th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, more than 5 units of equipment, and 2 UAV control points.

🔸Despite the fierce resistance of the enemy and “fake victories in the information field”, the soldiers from the Far East continue their systematic offensive to the west.

The capture of the populated point of Tsvetkovo confirms the groundlessness of any enemy’s fakes.

The “Far Eastern Express” continues to move forward according to schedule!

New “Credit”

Situation in Chasiv Yar

The Kostyantynivka direction remains one of the most challenging, with one reason being false reports about the situation, including those made months ago. This is evident in the example of Chasiv Yar.

Recently, the situation on the western outskirts of the city was clarified, where contradictory reports had been coming for a long time. It was found that the AFU maintain a presence in the western part of the Shevchenko neighborhood and are even attacking towards the city center.

Due to the current features of combat operations in the SMO zone, which we described (https://t.me/rybar_tactical/11) on TACTICAR, an extensive combat zone with separate hotspots remains in the city. Russian troops maintain control over the second workshop of the refractory plant and most of the Pivdennyi neighborhood.

ðŸ–As we have repeatedly written (https://t.me/rybar/76642), the situation on this flank remains quite tense. New information also unequivocally confirms that the officially “liberated” village of Krasne was actually taken “on credit”, as were the settlements north of it.

🚩All this hinders progress within Kostyantynivka itself. Now the AFU are trying to recapture the railway station, from where GV “South” assault troops are infiltrating towards the metallurgical plant and the ruins of the “Vtormet” base. Although the enemy in the city is also experiencing problems due to strikes (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/259482) on its communications.

❗️However, there is a silver lining — Russian troops are gradually approaching the southwestern outskirts of the city from Yablunivka. It is quite likely that in Kostyantynivka, the AFU will soon be forced to spread their forces across several defense sectors.

Two Majors #Review #Update as of February 15, 2026

▪️ The past week, due to leaks in the media and the obvious actions of 🇺🇸the USA, allowed us to get an idea of the timelines and possible plans for a freeze in the conflict. Nothing prevents these plans from collapsing, as has happened more than once. According to the Western press, by the end of spring in 🇺🇦 Ukraine, the Americans want to see elections held. This will allow the arrival of a new (already legitimate) Ukrainian president in Moscow🇷🇺 (or Minsk🇧🇾), where Zelensky himself would not have gone, and for Supreme he is unacceptable. To persuade the parties to such actions, Washington is trying to reduce the potential of the parties by playing with the level of arms supplies to Ukraine, disconnecting the Russian Armed Forces from Starlink, threatening with sanctions (the chaos with the seizure of tankers also solves this problem), but not forgetting to promise gold mountains to both sides in the event of a freeze in the hostilities. The stumbling block remains the territory of part of the DPR, which is still controlled by the AFU. There has been no mention of the discussion of cities such as Kherson, Zaporozhye, not to mention Nikolaev or Odessa at the negotiations for a long time.

▪️ Mutual strikes of the Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces are leading to increasingly serious consequences. Kiev complains about colossal losses in generating capacities, receiving hundreds of generators from European countries in return, which allows to localize problems in the most difficult areas. Nevertheless, the destruction of thermal power stations and substations in the enemy’s capital region, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Nikolaev has an impact on the overall situation.

▪️ In our territory, there are also constant incoming strikes, including at great depth, as was the case in Ukhta this week. The enemy’s goal is oil and industrial facilities, and Zelensky calls the reduction of Russia’s economic potential his task.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, the situation is critical. The centralized heat supply to homes has been destroyed by AFU strikes until the end of the heating season. The strongest daily missile strikes from American MLRS still break through our air defense and reach their targets. In addition, the enemy’s tactical drone operators are conducting high-intensity terrorist attacks against the civilian population, reporting on deaths and injuries almost daily.

The energy of all frontline regions: Kursk, Bryansk, Zaporozhye, Kherson regions.

▪️ On the front the enemy is trying to take advantage of the difficulties in organizing communication and is constantly launching counterattacks on the section from Gulyaypole to Ternovatoye in the Zaporozhye region, operating in small columns on armored vehicles. The GRU “Vostok” daily reports on repelling AFU raids. The “gray zone”/ “combat zone” due to a huge number of drones on both sides has finally replaced the “line of contact”. To storm a tactically important strongpoint, assault troops are forced to accumulate in small groups for a week and more: such is the density of drones in the air. Both sides, before engaging in a firefight with the enemy, have to solve the extremely difficult task of overcoming this very “gray zone”. The supply of forward groups is mainly by air. Powerful strikes of our FAB, TOS, missile weapons, UAVs such as “Lightning” or “Geranium” in the interests of forward units are doing their job, but difficulties with the advance of infantry do not allow us to talk about a quick advance anywhere.

The slowdown of Telegram 📱 this week caused a sharp negative reaction on the front, among mobile fire groups and in the military community in general. The nonsense of lightning rods in the form of Peskov or Kartopolov about the “non-use” of this messenger fueled the mood in the style of a quote from a classic film about a government living on another planet. The opposition of Telegram to a national messenger did not add to its popularity or trust, and the transition to it is perceived as a forced measure under the pressure of the boss. 

For the front, although a system of “Svod” of a single protected information space is being developed, it is still at the stage of experimental combat operation (and not everywhere). The introduction of the “Svod” system into all troop groups is ordered to be ensured by September 2026, we’ll see how timely this decision will be implemented. For now, Telegram remains a universally working tool. Perhaps that’s why the blocking of the messenger is not yet complete.

▪️ The mobilization potential of Ukraine, according to the statements of the Kiev regime, is enough for another year and a half. The number of personnel directly on the battlefield, due to the technological nature of the war, is now minimal compared to previous conflicts of past eras. But even in this situation, the enemy’s people will not run out: the West will help. 

▪️ European countries also understand the prospects of an even more large-scale conflict after the SMO or the interbellum: London🇬🇧 and Berlin🇩🇪 are stepping up efforts to recruit people into the army. The German Chancellor generally stated this week that he plans to create the most powerful army in Europe. He also stated at the conference in Munich that there is no more “rules-based” international order, and he himself has “started discussions” with Macron🇫🇷 on the issue of nuclear deterrence. By the way, the end of the New START Treaty has definitively marked the beginning of a new arms race.

✨Thus, Washington is making efforts to freeze the conflict in Ukraine (at least temporarily) or threatens to completely withdraw from the negotiation process. This is necessary for Trumpists to organize trade with all warring parties in the future. On the sidelines of the SMO, combat actions are becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies, and therefore – more expensive, which, under external pressure on Moscow, creates conditions for new economic problems. The EU and the arms lobby have not yet achieved their goals in the redistribution of spheres of influence on the continent, and they are in every way not only supporting the current conflict, but preparing for a new, much more large-scale one. And the only opponent in the new war they see is Russia.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_15.html