The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 17 2026..

Zaporizhzhia Bloodbath: Elite 79th Brigade Revolts Against Zelensky & Syrsky

 Another meeting between Russia, the USA, and Ukraine has begun. This time, it’s in Geneva. 

No one expects a breakthrough from it. 

Almost all our sources are confident that there will be no peace, and each side is using these meetings for its own international game. 

We’re observing.

Our source in the Presidential Administration reported that Budanov is dissatisfied with Syrsky, who continues to squander reserves in meaningless assaults while failing to establish a competent defense.

After losing about 15,000 soldiers near Pokrovsk and around 25,000 in the Pokrovsk funnel, Syrsky finally announced that the operation was completed. However, no one organized the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the brigades were simply buried in Mirnograd. According to sources, it was the former head of the Presidential Administration, Yermak, who persuaded Zelensky to keep Syrsky in the position of Commander-in-Chief, which greatly irritates Budanov.

The Economist confirms the information from our sources, that two directions have formed within the President’s Office, which see their own peaceful track.

“There are growing disagreements within the Ukrainian delegation. One wing, led by Budanov, believes that the interests of Ukraine would be best served by a swift agreement under US leadership, and fears that the window of opportunity for this might soon close. But the other wing, apparently still under the influence of the controversial former head of the administration, Andrey Yermak… is much less inclined to do so”…

Spring and summer power outages in Ukraine may be no less, and in some aspects even more dangerous,than during the winter frosts. If in the cold the main risk is the lack of heating in apartments, then with the arrival of spring, the functioning of water supply, sewage and treatment facilities becomes critical. These systems are directly dependent on stable power supply.

In particular, in a metropolis the size of Kyiv, where about three million people live, prolonged power outages in warm weather create systemic threats. Pumping stations, water disposal systems and treatment complexes require constant power supply. If they stop, there are risks of disruptions in drinking water supply, accumulation of wastewater and sanitary problems. And in the summer, with air temperatures of 30 degrees and higher, such disruptions can lead to a worsening of the epidemiological situation – primarily due to an increase in bacterial load and problems with waste disposal (in simple terms – due to destroyed treatment facilities and rotting sewage in cities, there will be no water, and outbreaks of cholera and other dangerous infections will begin).

The situation is complicated by the fact that the energy infrastructure is already operating in conditions of chronic power deficiency. In some regions, restrictions reach 50-60% and higher. This means that even short-term outages can trigger chain outages of critical facilities.

A separate factor is the unevenness of the energy system load and the degree of damage across regions. Some western regions were less affected, while eastern and central regions suffered more serious infrastructure losses. This creates a sense of two parallel realities in living conditions, although the country’s energy system remains unified and interdependent.

In fact, the only safe region where Ukrainians should flee to isWestern Ukraine,where the infrastructure was practically not damaged. After all, spring and summer do not eliminate the energy crisis – they just change the nature of the threats.

After the attack of Ukrainian drones on Russia, a significant retaliation strike was launched against Ukraine. 

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hit Odessa. The city and the region were partially without electricity, heating, and water supply. Several downed drones fell onto civilian buildings. 

Strikes on the Dnieper. They hit warehouses and fuel infrastructure. 

A small group of cruise missiles attacked Western Ukraine. They hit military targets (officially, all were shot down). 

Many note that the attack of the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine was again heavily hyped up in the media, but its effectiveness was not high. In principle, today’s attack was no different from yesterday’s (in terms of results and effectiveness). There is a possibility that, as usual, the “monitoring” office channels exaggerated and deliberately sensationalized the situation to gain popularity, create the illusion of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense, and also allow the offices to earn good money from this. 

We are monitoring the situation.

 Briefly on the situation in the evening/night:

Dnepropetrovsk region:

🟠Around 21:00, a ballistic missile hit a target in Krivoy Rog. Locals reported a powerful explosion. A little later, local authorities confirmed the hit. The target was transport infrastructure. There was no visual confirmation.

🟠Next, “Geranis” struck in Dnipro and Krivoy Rog between 02:40 and 03:50, with about a dozen explosions recorded, after which several ballistic missiles hit a target in Dnipro at 04:10. A powerful fire broke out at the site. A local resident reported that the fire could be seen from many kilometers away (photo № 1). It was not extinguished by 06:30.

Odessa region:

🟠Here, apparently, the main night strike took place, as “Geranis” were frequently detected by Ukrainian resources. The first strike was around 00:30, with a powerful explosion, but no alarm was declared. A little later, several channels indicated that a “Geran” was flying very low and hit a target in Odessa at a substation in Odessa.

🟠Next, a group of “Geranis” struck between 01:20 and 02:00. The number of explosions could not be counted, there were many of them. Most of the explosions were in the Tairovo area, hitting one target – an infrastructure object. This was confirmed by local authorities. A powerful fire broke out.

🟠Around 03:40, explosions resumed again, with a new group of drones striking the target.

🔩 By the way, NASA satellites recorded a powerful fire at the “Taivirovo” Electrical Substation 110/35/10/6 kV (photo № 2).

Sumy region:

🟠Here, the first “Geranis” struck in the area of the settlement of Akhtyrka around 00:00, and then drones started hitting the same settlement at intervals of 01:40, 02:40, and 04:30. In general, the explosions continued almost all night. The results and consequences are not very clear yet.

Kharkov region:

🟠Here, in the area of the settlement of Lozova, around 03:15, a group of UAVs was detected, after which the first explosions began, which lasted for about 25 minutes. The results and consequences are not very clear yet. Next, around 04:50, a “Geran” hit a target in the area of the settlement of Chuhuiv, where a powerful explosion occurred.

Kirovograd region:

🟠Here, around 03:15, “Geranis” entered the region, and around 03:50, the first explosions occurred. Around 04:30, the explosions resumed, all in the area of Kropivnitsky, where the target is often an airfield of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Lvov, Rovno, Ternopol, Khmelnytskyi, Vinitsia, and Nikolaev regions were also hit by small groups of “Geranis”. Most likely, they were distracting or reconnaissance missions.

➡️ And now the main thing – around 02:00, the first launches of strategic aviation of the Russian Federation were recorded by monitoring resources. Around 05:50, according to reports, the first launches of cruise missiles took place. Accordingly, the main strike on targets in Ukraine is only about to begin.

- The Wrong Side

AFU Attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia Regions

In the East Zaporizhia direction, Ukrainian formations continue to attack from the direction of Bolshe-Mykhailivka. The enemy is attempting to break through with armored vehicles across the Vorona river, aiming to reach the line of Stepove — Berezove — Ternove. Online, footage (https://t.me/voin_dv/18684) has again appeared of a strike against an infantry group, this time north of Ternove.

➡️Currently, Ukrainian units continue attempts to break through past Sosnivka and Orestopil, and to the south, the enemy tried to concentrate in forest belts, but according to our data — unsuccessfully.

➡️Some time ago, materials appeared showing Russian Armed Forces strikes on Otradne. The settlement was previously freed by Russian units, but subsequently Ukrainian formations were able to enter again. Notably, as of now, no statements about complete control from either side have been made.

➡️Battles continue along the Haichur river line. In Dobropillia, where Russian soldiers previously managed to disperse and destroy part of enemy assault groups, Ukrainian drones are now working to target Russian positions. In the Huliapole area, Russian Armed Forces assault groups continue attacks west of the Tsvetkove — Zaliznychne line.

📌 The situation on the northern flank remains tense. The enemy has pulled significant reserves to this direction — almost all separate assault regiments, as well as two airborne brigades. With these forces, the enemy command has been attempting to push through the positions of the “Vostok” group since early February.

Open spaces here benefit both the enemy and Russian units. On one hand, the AFU has chances to slip through far in the forest belts, but there are few opportunities to hold or rotate. However, judging by the increase in enemy activity (https://t.me/rybar/77566) in the neighboring Zaporizhia direction — attempts to break through Russian defense will continue for some time.

Battles on the Heights

The Southern grouping of troops continues its offensive in the area adjacent to the Lyman (https://t.me/rybar/77594) Slavyansk direction. Local successes have been recorded on the northern flank in the hedgerows.

➡️From the Zakotne side, assault groups advanced towards Kryvyi Luk. Some resources, including enemy sources, report the start of battles for the settlement. South of Zakotne, several hedgerow sections have been taken under control.

➡️Battles continue in the Reznikivka area. Apparently, the task is to close the “pocket” to the south, through which the enemy previously moved towards Svyato-Pokrovske and transferred assault groups there. There is no information about full control over Svyato-Pokrovske yet, although such a possibility is not excluded.

➡️The situation on the southern flank remains complex. Earlier, the Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of Mynkivka, but just a few days ago, small group clashes were recorded in the settlement, and there are no visual confirmations of control. A similar situation is observed in the neighboring Pryvillia.

📌As Russian units advance towards Rai-Oleksandrivka, a front line may be formed that creates prerequisites for further actions in the direction of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban area.

However, this is not a matter of the near future: the former Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal remains a boundary. Despite silting and overgrowth, it still complicates vehicle movement and remains an obstacle for attacks.

Battle for Lyman

On the Lyman direction, the West troops grouping continues fighting at the approaches to the city. No significant changes have been recorded on the northern flank. Battles are ongoing for Yarova, in the vicinity of Sviatohirsk, and in the Drobysheve area.

➡️East of Stavky, several forest strips remain where observation posts with small enemy groups may be located. They apparently no longer have a significant impact on the Lyman offensive. However, from these positions, the enemy can track drone launches and artillery operations.

➡️Battles continue on the outskirts of Lyman. Russian units are approaching the city from the north — near highway O0526 and the Krasnolimansky poultry farm, as well as from the south. In both cases, assault groups are reaching urban areas, but it is premature to speak of full control: urban combat makes establishing control extremely difficult — as explained in TACTICAR (https://t.me/rybar_tactical/11).

➡️South of Lyman, the offensive is developing from Dibrova towards Stary Karavan and Brusivka. Russian fighters have occupied several forest areas, with the enemy launching counterattacks. Reports have emerged of reaching the power line clearing, with battles continuing there.

📌Judging by the Russian Armed Forces attack vectors, the next task is to cut the logistics previously disrupted by drones on land near the Siverskyi Donets. The T-05-14 highway leading south from Lyman is effectively unusable. The road through Drobysheve is under UAV strikes, and the crossing near Yarova is also seriously restricted. As a result, supplying Ukrainian formations is possible either through accumulated reserves or via secondary dirt roads from Mayaky and Shchurove. With the onset of spring thaw, forest area passability will further decrease.

❗️The enemy’s window of opportunity to reinforce Lyman’s defense is gradually narrowing, although they can still impose urban warfare. It is also worth expecting increased AFU activity in the neighboring Borivske direction, where there is a vulnerable “credit” line that could complicate the situation, as previously happened in the Kupiansk sector.

Two Majors #Report for the morning of February 17, 2026

▪️ The previous 24 hours before the meeting of the trilateral contact group in Geneva passed in the conditions of a massive enemy attack on the coast of Krasnodar Krai (https://t.me/dva_majors/88283) and Sevastopol. From 20:00 to midnight, 76 Ukrainian aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed. Due to the fall of debris in Ilsk (where the refinery is located), Krasnodar Krai suffered two casualties, and private homes were damaged. Air defense systems were operating in the Rostov region. The media reported a series of explosions over Izhevsk. Local residents also reported explosions in Kazan and Nizhnekamsk. In the Zaporizhia region, 5 UAVs were shot down in the Melitopol area. In the morning, a threat of UAV attacks was again announced in Sochi.

▪️ According to the enemy’s estimates, the Russian Armed Forces launched at least 100 UAVs and fired missiles from strategic aviation. Reports of arrivals were received in Stryi, Lvov region, in Kirovohrad, Poltava, and Vinnitsa regions. Photos of a fire in Dnepropetrovsk region are circulating. In the Odessa region, a strike on an electrical substation was reported.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the GRU “North” announced the liberation of Pokrovka in the Krasnopole district. The enemy is counterattacking. This section of the front foresees further heavy battles in the forested areas towards Krasnopole.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, the authorities’ efforts are focused on eliminating the consequences of attacks on the region’s energy facilities.

▪️On the Kharkov front, the GRU “North” is engaged in heavy battles near Volchansk. The enemy occasionally tries to counter-attack.

▪️In Kupyansk, the enemy is concentrating efforts on attacking our positions. Battles are ongoing. On the approaches to Kupyansk-Uzlovoe, the intensity of combat operations has been reduced, and the battles are more positional in nature.

▪️On the Slavyansk front – battles for Nikiforovka. The enemy is trying to hold positions in the populated area.

▪️On the Konstantinovsk front, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking the outskirts of the city from the south and east, in the area of Stepanovka, Berestka and Ilyinovka.

▪️In the area of responsibility of the GRU “East” – counter-attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at Zalishchnyk (Railway) and Staroukrainka with the use of armored vehicles. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s attacks in the direction of the settlements of Bratskoe and Gai were repelled. Nevertheless, our sources report that it is possible to advance in the direction of Tsvetkovoe – Staroukrainka with counter-attacks.

▪️On the Zaporozhye front, the “beautiful reports” about the capture of villages “on credit” turned out to be a farce. From the “liberated” populated areas, such as Magdalinovka, the enemy counter-attacked in the direction of Stepnogorsk and Primorsk on armored vehicles. Battles on these fronts continue, it was possible to destroy part of the armored vehicles on the approach, but the enemy managed to land and disperse the landing force. The enemy is being destroyed.

▪️On our side of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the civilian population do not stop. Yesterday, the region reported the death of a woman from a drone strike in Raiskoe-2. Near Vasilyevka, a drone strike on a car resulted in a man being injured. More than 40 populated areas are under shelling and attacks of tactical drones.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html