6 Signs to Watch for Before a Russian Nuclear Strike

 by Eric Beuning

Since the early days of the Cold War, the US and the rest of the Western world have been watching Russia for early signs of a potential nuclear strike.

While the geopolitical landscape has continued to change over the decades since the Berlin Wall fell, there’s still growing concern that Russia might one day again choose the nuclear option.

Of course, it’s easy to be paranoid, and hard to be sure about this kind of thing.

So, I thought I’d take a closer look at some of the potential signs to watch for if Russia were to strategically move toward launching a nuclear strike.

A Change in Weapons Doctrine

Russia, the US, and NATO all have specific legal criteria about when nuclear devices and weapons of mass destruction can be used.

Some of this is for geopolitical posturing to show off having a big brass pair of plutonium-enriched warheads in hopes of making the West back down.

What We’ve Seen

Russia has recently changed its nuclear policy in hopes of moving the needle in its war against Ukraine. Their doctrine now states that an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by an outside nuclear power, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia.

This is certainly a red flag hinting that Russia could be considering a nuclear strike against the West. However, it could just as easily be political posturing.

If Russia was truly planning to launch nukes, they would certainly want to keep it as quiet as possible to lessen the risk of mutually assured destruction.

To consider just how serious this change in nuclear policy is, I think we need to look deeper at other potential signs.

Strategic Military Mobilization

The sudden movement of nuclear-capable armed forces, and equipment such as missile launchers, submarines, and long-range, high-altitude bombers, is another potential warning sign of an impending Russian nuclear strike.

Historically we saw something like this during the Cuban Missile Crisis, where Russia moved nuclear assets toward Cuba, as well as nearer to NATO countries in Europe.

Now scenarios like this can be a sign of military escalation or simply more geopolitical posturing. However, I think it’s more likely to be a posturing effort if it happens in conjunction with a public change in nuclear policy.

What We’ve Seen

Since making a change in their strategic nuclear policy Russia has started using missile launchers against Ukraine that are capable of carrying a small-yield strategic nuclear device.

These are also missiles that move too fast for Ukrainian missile defense systems to shoot down.

Yet many other nuclear-capable assets in the Russian ground arsenal have been relatively silent. Which on the surface seems nominal.

Still, it’s worth noting that in June of 2024, Russian nuclear subs performed a test in the Pacific. Then in September of 2024, another nuclear-capable submarine made a successful transit under the arctic sea ice.

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Cyber Attacks & Improved Russian Cyber Security

In today’s information age, cyber-attacks are a critical component of any military strategy. This includes things like influencing elections, interrupting international business communications in Western markets, stealing critical information from major banks, and covertly acquiring people’s personal information.

These data and information assets have value in many ways. However, it’s the interruption to business, free market capitalism, and sowing the seeds of distrust in our election process that have the most strategic value for Russia before a nuclear strike.

They create distractions that the ordinary person focuses on, leaving them vulnerable.

Rather than watching out for what’s going on in the world.

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In the event a nuclear attack does occur, excess vulnerable individuals will complicate US military relief efforts at home.

At the same time, Russia will try to harden their own cyber security. In hopes of keeping us from interrupting their critical information infrastructure.

What We’ve Seen

Throughout 2023 and 2024 there’s been a steady increase in Russian cyber-attacks on the US military and business infrastructure. We’ve also seen deep fake social media posts that are believed to be traceable back to Russia during the 2024 elections.

Equally concerning is the number of Russian cyber-attacks on NATO member nations and countries near the Russian border. This includes Ukraine, but also countries like Poland and Finland have seen a steady increase in cyber-attacks.

This is especially concerning, as their cyber security is not as hardened as it is here in the US. It could be perceived as an attempt to test what a future attack could do to hamper US allies attempting to retaliate after a future Russian nuclear strike.

Communication Intercepts

In the months leading up to a potential nuclear strike, Russia would undoubtedly try to intercept as many Western military communications as possible. After all, their only hope of pulling off such an attack would also require preventing mutually assured destruction.

For that to be possible, Russia needs to know the location of US, NATO, and other western-allied military assets, as well as how prepared they are for deployment. Without this information, the threat of a Russian nuclear strike is low. With this information in hand, Putin and his strategic advisors could feel emboldened.

What We’ve Seen

It’s hard to know what information Russia may or may not have intercepted or acquired as part of a cyber-attack. Especially since US intelligence agencies aren’t going to release such information if they did.

We do know that in the fall of 2023 and 2024, Russian submarines were detected near key undersea communication cables that are sometimes used by the US military. At the same time, officials in Sweden, Denmark, and Norway have also noted an increased Russian presence near their undersea cable networks.

An Increase in Military Production

Before any potential nuclear strike, Russia will need to increase its conventional military assets. Even if they were able to pull off a successful first strike without retaliation from the West, they would still need the means to occupy our critical military assets.

Before they could mobilize their army and navy, Russia would first need to build upon what they currently have. This could be a challenge for them, as much of their current military arsenal is left over from the Soviet era and has simply been given a modern facelift.

What We’ve Seen

Russia has indeed been increasing its military production at a pace that has outstripped the US and our NATO allies. However, this is more likely tied to the war in Ukraine, which has gradually turned into a war of attrition.

Ukraine having access to modern military technology from the West has helped them hit hard against Russia’s often outdated military equipment. This has forced Russia to bolster its own arsenal with new models. What they do with that equipment when the war in Ukraine comes to an end is yet to be seen.

Strengthening Ties with Other Foreign Powers

If Russia has any hopes of pulling off a successful nuclear strike against the West, it will need help from other countries.

This is just as much about bolstering their resources as it is insulating themselves from being attacked at home when they’re over-stretched abroad.

The last thing Russia wants is to dump all its resources into taking the US and Western Europe only to have a nation like China make a massive land grab in Eastern Russia.

What We’ve Seen

Throughout 2023 and 2024 we’ve seen Russia strengthening its ties with other nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. While these are nations that are already hostile toward the West to some degree, it is somewhat alarming to see them making such an active effort.

With the high risk of mutually assured destruction, Russia seems unlikely to attempt a nuclear strike against the US and NATO any time soon. Many of the signs I mentioned above could be written off as side effects of their war with Ukraine, or in response to strong US economic sanctions.

There’s also the very real potential that these warning signs are Russia testing the West’s capabilities. Not necessarily that they intend to act, but wanting to keep their finger on our pulse should a worst-case scenario fall on their doorstep.

While this isn’t the time to run around screaming that the sky is falling, it’s still a wise move to be as prepared as possible, should there ever be a Russian nuclear strike on US soil.

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