Research links El Niño to Atlantic weather a year later, could enhance long-range weather forecasting
Another highlight of the underrated significance of natural climate variability by believers in human causes for all sorts of weather events and their effects.
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New research has revealed that the impact of one of the world’s most influential global climate patterns is much more far-reaching than originally thought, says Phys.org.
Scientists at the U.K.’s Meteorological Office have discovered that away from the tropics, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has an additional impact on Atlantic weather patterns a full year on from the original event.
Research shows this one year lagged extratropical response to ENSO is as strong as the simultaneous response, but with an opposite impact.
The paper is published in the journal Science.
For example, it has now been shown that El Niño, which can increase the chance of colder winters in the UK, can result in a milder winter period the following year.
While ENSO is just one of many drivers that influence the UK weather, it can be important, particularly in the winter months.
Lead researcher Professor Adam Scaife, of the Met Office and the University of Exeter, said, “This latest research reveals that El Niño is often followed by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) a whole year later, while La Niña is followed by negative NAO one year later.
The results of this research have major implications for understanding ENSO, explaining our winter climate variability and interpreting long range predictions.”
The research shows that knowledge of the previous winter ENSO event is also important for understanding some of the UK’s extreme winters. In cases in which El Niño is followed by La Niña, or vice versa, the lagged effects can boost expected impacts.
Full article here.
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Research article: ENSO affects the North Atlantic Oscillation 1 year later (Oct. 2024)
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2024/10/04/research-links-el-nino-to-atlantic-weather-a-year-later-could-enhance-long-range-weather-forecasting/
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