The Fundamental Probability Problem in Abiogenesis: A Formal Critique and Rebuttal to Gemini’s Response
All articles by Wretch Fossil are here: http://www.wretch.cc/blog/lin440315&category_id=0
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Abstract
Current abiogenesis models propose that life emerged through unguided prebiotic chemistry, gradually producing self-replicating polymers, catalysts, and metabolic networks. However, the transition from non-living chemistry to the first information-bearing replicator remains one of the most severe unsolved problems in science. A recent AI-generated rebuttal dismisses probabilistic objections as “Hoyle’s Fallacy,” asserting that chemical determinism, redundancy in protein function, and cumulative selection eliminate the improbabilities. This article demonstrates that such rebuttals address only post-replicator evolution, not the origin of the first replicator.
1. Introduction
Abiogenesis is the hypothesis that life originated from non-living matter through purely natural processes. Yet major gaps persist in explaining the origin of replication, heritable information, metabolic coupling, and coding. Popular explanations frequently claim that probabilistic critiques misunderstand evolutionary principles. This article clarifies the probability problem and rebuts Gemini’s claims point by point.
2. The Core Problem: The First Replicator
Before replication emerges, no natural selection can occur. Thus the first replicator must arise from unguided chemistry. Experimental data shows random polymers seldom fold or function, prebiotic monomer ratios differ from biological sets, and bond formation is unfavorable in aqueous environments.
3. Rebuttal to Gemini’s Claims
Gemini raises four objections—lottery fallacy, chemical determinism, cumulative selection, and functional redundancy. Each objection is incomplete or misapplied. The probability problem concerns the pre-replication phase, where evolution cannot operate.
4. Why the Probability Problem Remains Unresolved
Even under optimistic assumptions, the information content needed for the first replicator far exceeds the capacity of unguided chemistry. No experimental model demonstrates a plausible transition from simple molecules to heritable replication.
5. Conclusion
Gemini’s rebuttal addresses only post-origin evolutionary mechanisms. The central question—how the first information-bearing replicator arose—remains unsolved. Abiogenesis faces a fundamental probability barrier.
Wretch Fossil’s website:http://wretchfossil.blogspot.com/
Source: https://wretchfossil.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-fundamental-probability-problem-in.html
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