WMO predicts weak La Niña climate pattern over the next three months
This doesn’t fit in with a recent study suggesting (as this article says): ‘Global warming may create a “permanent El Niño”, changing the world’s weather patterns’. In fact El Niño has barely matched La Niña in the last decade or so, and one is not expected (‘little likelihood’) next year.
– – –
There is a 55% chance of a weak La Niña impacting weather and climate patterns during the next three months, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), says Phys.org.
Even though La Niña has a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal. [Talkshop comment – which ‘normal’?]
La Niña refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
. . .
For January–March and February–April 2026, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65% to 75%.
There is little likelihood of an El Niño—which typically has opposite impacts.
. . .
To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU). These take into account the influence of key climate variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The updates also monitor the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.
Full article here.
Source: https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2025/12/10/wmo-predicts-weak-la-nina-climate-pattern-over-the-next-three-months/
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