AI “Reads” the Weather Through the Arctic

Polar vortex [credit: NASA]

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The article says AI ‘detected earlier than expected the cold wave that struck the eastern United States in December and also predicted that this winter in Europe would be colder than usual’. The Europe part is still at the prediction stage, but the US is now getting another Arctic blast which isn’t mentioned.
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A new meteorological model links Arctic weather conditions to winter patterns in Europe, Asia, and North America, says tovima.com.

Arctic phenomena act as reliable indicators, allowing forecasts on a time horizon of weeks rather than just a few days, with the help of Artificial Intelligence.

The new tool, developed to fill this major gap in meteorology, was created by the team of Judah Cohen, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

This innovative technology can now be used precisely where conventional climate models “fall short.”

In fact, the new forecasting tool was recently awarded first place for its accuracy in the “AI WeatherQuest” competition of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

A Valuable Alternative to ENSO
In the 19th century, fishermen off the coast of Peru noticed that every Christmas the waters of the Pacific Ocean became unusually warm. Heavy rainfall followed, and fish stocks declined.

Influenced by the season, they attributed the phenomenon to the Christ Child and named it El Niño, meaning “the child” or “the boy” in Spanish.

For decades, El Niño was considered a local phenomenon. However, in the 1960s, meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes discovered that warm waters in the eastern Pacific affect weather across the entire globe. This led to the concept of ocean–atmosphere coupling, which later became known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Today, ENSO remains the most important tool meteorologists use for weather forecasting. Nevertheless, it cannot always be applied. When temperatures in the eastern Pacific do not change dramatically, the resulting weather patterns are uncertain.

In such cases, meteorologists turn northward. The Arctic is the best alternative available, as changes in snow cover, temperature, and sea ice affect the weather in other regions of the Northern Hemisphere with a time lag.

Full article here.
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Image: Polar vortex [credit: NASA]