Are The Strongest Nor’easters Getting Stronger? What The Data Actually Shows

Nor’easter [credit: NOAA]

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‘How scientific uncertainty morphed into media certainty’ – some climate industry propaganda tactics exposed, featuring the well-known US Nor’easters.
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As New England digs out from a historic blizzard, today’s post takes a deep and technical dive into recent research — Chen et al. 2025 — claiming that Nor’easters have become detectably more intense over recent decades, says Roger Pielke Jr. @ Climate Dispatch.

That research asserts:

Our analysis of nor’easter characteristics reveals that the strongest nor’easters are becoming stronger . . .’

Taking advantage of AI tools, I have replicated and extended the analysis. As is far too common in high-profile climate research, the top-line claims of the paper do not survive scrutiny.

Public commentary by the paper’s senior author and subsequent media reporting provide a case study in how uncertain and ambiguous findings are turned into strong claims expressed with absolute certainty.
. . .
The bottom line: Chen et al. take on a worthwhile question, but its headline claims, and those that followed publication, go meaningfully beyond what the data can currently support.

Follow-on public discussion by its senior authors and in the media depart even further from what evidence and analysis can support. Worthwhile findings of uncertainty and ambiguity are transformed into unquestioned certainty in support of a narrative that everything is getting worse.
. . .
The supplementary analysis to Chen et al. includes information that dramatically undercuts the headline findings that were picked up and amplified by the media.

Full article here.
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Image: Nor’easter [credit: NOAA]