Ancient Maya droughts may have been fueled by Earth’s own climate swings

El Castillo (pyramid of Kukulcán) in Chichén Itza [credit: Daniel Schwen @ Wikipedia]

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Natural climate variation is admitted in this research to be a thing. That’s often pushed to the margins under the pressure of having to try and implicate humans for anything deemed abnormal or unpleasant in today’s weather systems. We’re told: ‘The findings suggest that internal climate rhythms can amplify or dampen the effects of external forcing.’ Where does that leave so-called climate attribution studies?
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Dramatic droughts linked to the decline of the Classic Maya civilization approximately 800 to 1000 CE may not have required any external trigger, according to a new climate modeling study.

Instead, they could have emerged from Earth’s own natural climate variability—shifts within the climate system that, when aligned, are capable of producing prolonged dry periods on their own, says Phys.org.

The research, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, focuses on Mesoamerica (parts of Mexico, Guatemala, Belize and Honduras), which was home to the Maya civilization, and uses advanced computer simulations to reconstruct past patterns of rainfall and drought.

The findings offer a fresh perspective on a long-standing question: what caused the severe and persistent droughts that coincided with societal disruptions?

Rather than pointing to volcanic eruptions or changes in solar activity, the study highlights the power of internal climate dynamics processes that occur naturally within the atmosphere and oceans.

Climate rhythms at play
Earth’s climate is not static. It is shaped by a complex interplay of interacting systems, including the oceans, atmosphere and land surface, each of which fluctuates over different timescales.

Some of these changes occur over decades, while others unfold over centuries. Scientists often refer to these as “internal variability,” meaning they arise from within the climate system itself rather than from outside influences.

Researchers from Stockholm University, Sweden, examined how several of these natural cycles might combine to affect rainfall in the Maya region.

By simulating hydroclimate conditions (the balance between precipitation and evaporation), they found that overlapping cycles could reinforce one another. When this happens, it can push the climate into extended periods of dryness, even without any external disturbance. These compounded effects can persist for decades, or even longer, creating conditions similar to those inferred from lake sediments, cave formations and other paleoclimate records.

Recreating ancient droughts
To test their ideas, the team used climate models capable of reproducing long-term patterns in rainfall. These models incorporate known physical processes, such as how heat moves through the oceans or how atmospheric circulation shifts over time.

By running simulations over extended periods, the researchers were able to observe how natural variability alone could shape regional climate.

Full article here.
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Image: El Castillo (pyramid of Kukulcán) in Chichén Itza [credit: Daniel Schwen @ Wikipedia]