New paper suggests the Sun is due a ‘superflare’

Solar flare [credit: NASA]

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Spaceweather asks: ARE WE OVERDUE FOR A SUPERFLARE? We’ve all heard of X-class solar flares–powerful explosions on the sun that pepper satellites with energetic particles and trigger great geomagnetic storms. They can be scary. But not as scary as a new category of solar flare being discussed by researchers: the “S-flare”–a solar superflare stronger than X10.

A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research suggests we may be overdue for one.
. . .
The Plain Language Summary of the paper says:

Solar superflares, the most powerful explosions in our solar system, can cause severe disruptions to space technology and are very dangerous for the lives of astronauts, power grids, and communications systems on Earth. Forecasting these extreme events, including the most recent May 2024 storm event, has been one of the biggest challenges in the frontier of space weather science. In this study, we developed a new approach to forecast these superflares (classified as S-class or X10 class in soft X-rays) by analyzing nearly 50 years of satellite observations. We are proposing a paradigm shift; instead of trying to predict the exact location and time, we identify time windows and heliographic zones where the probability of superflares is significantly enhanced. Our analysis reveals that these extreme flares tend to occur in specific patterns that repeat over time. We found two key patterns: a 1.7-year cycle and a 7-year cycle that work together to create the identified high-risk periods including intense geomagnetic storms and Ground Level Enhancement events on Earth. Based on these patterns, we predict that the next high-risk window for superflares will occur around 2026–2027, with the southern hemisphere of the Sun being particularly more active. [bold added]
. . .
Stay tuned.

Source: Spaceweather.com.
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Image: Solar flare [credit: NASA]