Fantasy Preview: Mark Andrews

Welcome to Day 2 of Ravens Fantasy Preview! Yesterday, we looked at Derrick Henry, who seems primed for a big year in Baltimore. If you haven’t read my breakdown of his potential impact on the fantasy season, you can catch it here.

Fantasy Preview: Derrick Henry

Today, we shift gears to look at Mark Andrews, who, unlike Henry, has been a stalwart of this offense for a while. “Money Mark,” usually the most consistent force in a sometimes-streaky Ravens offense, went down with injury last year thanks to the now-banned hip-drop tackle. Although he surprisingly was able to make a return in the AFC Championship Game, it was clear that he still hadn’t made a full recovery, playing just 18 snaps and logging two catches.

However, it seems like he’s back to his old self. In a training camp presser, Andrews said that he feels better than ever, and I believe him. I have a hard time seeing his performance take a hit because of last year’s injury… but I’m not sure he’ll be as good as before for fantasy purposes. With that said, let’s take a look at his numbers.

Player Breakdown: Mark Andrews, TE, BAL

2024 Rank (ESPN): 48 overall, TE3

2023 Output: 135.4 PPR Points (13.2 per game)

2023 Stats: 45 receptions (61 targets), 544 yards, 6 TDs in 10 games

Prior to his injury, Andrews was once again well on his way to securing another top-tier finish in the 2023 fantasy season. While his fantasy production took a bit of a step back from previous years, he was still putting up a solid number of points per game and would be the undisputed starter on virtually any roster. ESPN projects him to be a top-3 tight end in the game this season, and it’s incredibly important to secure a good tight end.

Solid, consistent TEs are few in far between in today’s fantasy football, and great ones are hard to come by. Usually, a guy putting up under 15 points per game doesn’t warrant a top-50 draft pick, but there’s a bit of a position premium when it comes to this group. Having a good tight end is a massive advantage for fantasy managers just because they’re so rare. If you do have one, you almost instantly have a leg up on your opponent. Tight ends also hold a lot of trade value in-season, so it’s a bit easier to bring in high-quality players at other positions if injuries have ravaged your roster.

Andrews definitely falls into the category of a good, consistent pass-catcher at the ever-elusive TE spot, but I do think he takes a step back in 2024. That’s not at all a slight against him; rather, it speaks to the depth of talent that the Ravens have at the position. After #89 went down last year, Isaiah Likely stepped up in a big way. The Coastal Carolina product absolutely balled out in 2023, and I’d venture to say that he’d easily be TE1 on at least half of the teams in the NFL. If you’re a head coach in the league and have a guy like that, you don’t just sit him. Instead, you’d obviously try to get him on the field as much as possible.

Am I concerned that Likely takes snaps away from Andrews? No, I’m not. “Mandrewz” is still the undisputed top dog at tight end in Baltimore. Am I concerned that Likely takes targets away from Andrews? Very much so.

Everyone in the building knows that Likely is a dynamic playmaker, and the Ravens would be foolish to not get him the ball in 2024. And, in an offense that throws the ball at a rate below league average, every target matters. Lamar Jackson averaged just 28 pass attempts per game last season, completing two-thirds of those throws. Andrews was averaging a tick over six targets per game. I believe Todd Monken is going to run more two-TE sets in 2024, so naturally there will be some passes that go to Likely instead of Andrews. Redistribute just two of those targets to #80, and Mark is left with just 4-5 looks per game. In PPR leagues, which heavily favor volume, that’s not an overly inspiring number.

However, I’m confident that Andrews can still produce a top-10, borderline top-5 fantasy season this year. Why? Red zone production. Ravens fans know that #89 is Lamar’s favorite target, especially down near the goal line. Last year, Jackson targeted him an average of 1.4 times per game in the red zone. Although Andrews only ended up securing only six of those passes for scores, it’s encouraging to see such a high number of touchdown opportunities. I don’t expect that figure to change drastically, if at all, in 2024. Andrews is a beast in the red zone, something that’s aided by his larger frame and big catch radius. Expect close to double-digit scores from him this year.

So, am I inclined to draft Andrews this year? To be honest, not really. As a fantasy manager, I hate relying on touchdowns to help me win my matchups, and the volume just won’t be there for him in 2024. TD production is just so inconsistent from week to week and an over-reliance on it can set you on the path towards an up-and-down season. Plus, the price point for him is very high. To get Andrews, you’ll probably have to spend either a fourth or fifth round pick, depending on how many teams are in your league. That price is just too tough to swallow, and I’d rather use a higher pick like that to load up at wide receiver or running back.

Yet, tight end is a very, very scarce position. You’ll have to spend a much higher pick to get a guy like Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta, who play in pass-heavy offenses with the potential for a lot of volume and touchdowns. After they’re gone, each remaining tight end will have issues that need to be considered. I’m not opposed to having Andrews on my roster, but he has a very high price for someone whose consistency in 2024 I question. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s a top-5 finisher at the position, but I think that speaks more to the lack of depth at the position.

Thanks for reading my second day of coverage! Check back tomorrow for a deep dive into Baltimore’s two-time MVP quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

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