Online Sports Betting 101: Unlocking Football Betting Success with Data Analysis

Football continues to reign supreme as the biggest sport in America, both for fans and bettors. Online betting on football has continued to gain much ground, with FanDuel recording 14 million bets from 2.5 million customers during the Super Bowl.

While the number of football bettors continues to surge, the complexities of the sport remain profound, hence the need to make the most of available data to achieve success in betting. Understanding important statistics, like player metrics, team performance, and historical data, can empower bettors to make better-informed decisions as they wager on America’s favorite game.

From deciding which team gets the nod on a moneyline bet to predicting the number of points scored in a game, this post highlights the importance of data in football wagering and how American bettors can leverage it to increase their chances of winning a bet.

Evaluating Player Statistics & Team Metrics

It is good practice to research player statistics before placing a bet. This information can give bettors insight into how well a player can impact the game.

For example, a quarterback’s passer rating is indicative of his passing efficiency and ability to make decisions on the field. This metric measures several aspects of a quarterback’s game, such as his pass completion percentage, touchdown passes, and yards per attempt.

A quarterback with a high passer rating will likely contribute to a higher score and a win for his team, and oddsmakers use this information to determine betting lines on point spreads, over/under, and prop bets. Brock Purdy had the highest passer rating in the 2023 NFL regular season, with a 113.0 rating, helping the San Francisco 49ers to the best record in the NFC.

Other important metrics that can help you determine the outcome of a football game include a running back’s average yard per carry (YPC), a wide receiver’s catch rate, and a defensive player’s sack percentage.

When it comes to team performance, crucial statistics such as Points Per Game (PPG), Yards Per Game (YPG), and Turnover Differential can give football fans a glimpse of what to expect from their team. For instance, a team’s points per game give you a clue about their offensive strength. Teams with higher PPG are usually more lethal on offense and could potentially win more games. In 2023, the Dallas Cowboys (29.9), Miami Dolphins (29.2), San Francisco 49ers (28.9), and Baltimore Ravens (28.5) recorded the most PPG. The Dolphins were the only team on this list not to win their division, narrowly losing the top spot to the Buffalo Bills on head-to-head record.

With accurate sports betting education on these metrics, bettors can discover the strengths and weaknesses of teams and players, which can help them make the right predictions. While football fans can find these statistics easily on the NFL’s official website, it might be a bit more difficult to put meaning to them and interpret them accurately. To do so, Americans can leverage trusted resources like TrustnBet’s online sports betting 101 guide to learn how they can embrace data and utilize it for a successful betting experience.

Leveraging Historical Data

Historical data plays a pivotal role in NFL betting and can sometimes determine which team gets the nod as the favorites or underdogs in a football match.

Some teams perform better against certain opponents, while other teams struggle when facing a similar foe. For example, the Chicago Bears are currently on a nine-game losing streak against the Green Bay Packers dating back to their 24-17 victory at Soldier Field in 2018.

History is also kind to some players when they face a familiar opponent. Lamar Jackson, for instance, has a great record against the Cincinnati Bengals. In ten games against the Ravens’ divisional rivals, the two-time NFL MVP has a 96.8 passer rating, with 1,834 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Jackson averages 183.4 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns and holds a 9-1 record against the Bengals.

However, Jackson has particularly struggled against the Pittsburgh Steelers so far in his career. In the six games he has started against the AFC North franchise, the 27-year-old has only managed a 66.8 passer rating, with 870 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Jackson has also been sacked 20 times, fumbled the ball seven times, and holds a 1-5 losing record against the Steelers.

Also, games between the Ravens and the Steelers have resulted in low-scoring affairs since Lamar became Baltimore’s starting quarterback. This means bookmakers are likely to assign lower betting lines for their next matchup on November 17. Bettors can therefore make the most of these historical stats before placing a bet on this game.

To leverage historical data, bettors should always consider the context of these trends, focusing more on long-term streaks rather than short-term anomalies to have a better glimpse of a team or player’s performance under different circumstances.

Navigating Complexities with Data-Driven Insights

Smart bettors use statistical facts and available data as betting tools to make accurate predictions, rather than their intuition. Football is a complex sport, and many factors can influence the outcome of games. By utilizing available stats, bettors can analyze potential scenarios and come up with a solid strategy to win a football bet.

Teams with a streak of strong defensive records, for instance, are likely to keep opponents with poor offensive stats from scoring. The smart choice, therefore, is to go for the under when betting on the number of points scored, considering the data at hand. The chances of strong defensive teams winning a football game are also high, and they should be preferred over teams with a shabby defense.

Bettors should pay attention to situational factors such as team momentum at certain times of a game, coaching expertise, and player morale. These factors do not directly reflect on raw statistics but can impact the outcome of a game.

Winning Strategies Unlocked

Football data analysis puts fans one step closer to winning their bets. Understanding a team or player and their historical trends gives bettors the right sense of judgment and helps them curate precise strategies that could potentially lead to big payouts.

Aside from the official stats page on reputable sports websites, Americans would be wise to keep honing their sports betting knowledge and skills by reading reputable resources online. All these efforts combined will surely contribute towards unlocking a winning strategy for sports betting.

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