The Role of Expected Points Added (EPA) in NFL Betting Strategies

A relatively newer metric that bettors lean on for their NFL picks is Expected Points Added (EPA). Much like the popular Expected Goals (xG) analysis in soccer, which measures the expectancy of goals by a team from the quality of their chances, the EPA does a similar thing in American Football.

The EPA helps to identify teams which are surpassing or failing to meet projected standards by combining different factors. In more recent times, this advanced metric has played a greater role in handicapping American Football matches, but what exactly is it, and what is its real role in forecasting?

What is EPA

If you are looking for the best betting sign up offers from a sportsbook, you can scan the terms and conditions and know exactly what you can expect to receive from the bonus. The Expected Points Added metric in the NFL is sort of like that, a breakdown of what points are expected to be scored by a team.

In its simplest form, it’s based on things like the down and the position of the ball on the field. If a team is starting a drive on their 25-yard line, then their expected points would be lower than if they were at the end of a drive 30 yards from goal.

Therefore, the Expected Points Added simply quantifies how many points a team should be adding to their tally. Every advancement of yards, and first downs added during a drive will factor into the equation.

How It’s Calculated

If the attacking team is at the halfway line, then statistically there is approximately a 30% chance of that drive producing a touchdown. The value of the touchdown is seven points, so the EPA can be calculated by multiplying the figures together.

0.3 (30%) x 7 (points) = 2.1. So the team on that drive, from that current position, should on average return 2.1 points. It’s an average because a team won’t score every single time and it’s why implied probability is factored in.

Because it is calculated play by play, EPA has become the staple of research for NFL analysts and bettors. It’s so nuanced, so detailed, the likes of which hadn’t been seen up until that point and is relied on for that balance of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

Dynamic Difficulties

The EPA is not a simple metric and doesn’t just encompass the actual field position. The down and the time on the clock are typically calculated into the equation, as well as the flip side to account for opposition defensive strength.

If the offensive team were to choke up possession of the ball on their 25-yard line, what is the likelihood of the new attacking team scoring from that field possession? Pretty high, so that’s wrapped up in the pot as well.

As soon as a team goes to their third down, the probability of the defending team being the next one to score goes up. So the team in possession essentially has, on every play, the chance of adding or decreasing their Expected Points.

How to Use EPA in NFL Betting

But how does this work for NFL betting? It’s about looking at the bigger picture from previous games, and how the EPA ties into results. This isn’t a play-by-play thing to follow along with.

There are two factors to look for, overachieving teams and underachieving teams. A team may be conceding a lot of yards on defense, leaving their EPA struggling. But scoring from deeper field positions and winning games could lead them to over-perform on their Expected Points Added stat.

A team ranking strongly for both EPA per rush and EPA per drop back, can be used to leverage position by potentially fading against the spread if they are outperforming their EPA. Yet, it’s not a metric just to solely base everything on. Teams evolve, form degrades, and the importance of trades can drastically change up the EPA of a team for the following season.

Getting Deeper

The statistics from the EPA can be broken down to study things like running on the first down typically doesn’t gain much of an advantage. The EPA knows this because it differentiates between what a quarterback does on a play.

The separate EPA per drop back and the EPA rushing attempts, can be used to assess how a quarterback is performing. It’s the marrying of the quarterback stats and the team’s overall offensive performance that is the sweet spot that can be taken from the EPA and used in football betting.

Broadening the horizon of view can help too, by looking at year-by-year outputs instead of just the most recently completed season to spot any potential trend bucking.

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