Suit Up those Ravens and Chiefs in Week 1!

Fantasy football is back!

Welcome to Week 1, the week that’s perhaps the most underwhelming and hardest to predict out of the entire season. For many ol’ reliable fantasy weapons, Week 1 is the time to shake off the cobwebs of the offseason, cobwebs that make it hard for many players at many positions to eclipse even 10 or 15 points.

This is especially true for Baltimore, which didn’t feature any offensive starters in the preseason.

Aside from low point totals, Week 1 is also the week that offenses offer first glimpses at their actual game plans. You’d be lying if you said you knew exactly how many carries Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are going to split on Thursday night, so an educated guess is your only hope for now.

Well—here are my educated guesses for Week 1. May the odds be ever in your favor to start 1-0.

(All fantasy-related statistics are derived from FantasyPros.com and are based on standard format unless otherwise specified).

Ravens-Chiefs Fantasy Outlook Start

Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes

This feels more than obvious, considering Mahomes and Jackson are respectively ranked No. 3 and No. 4 among quarterbacks in fantasy heading into this season. While the two should never really be benched unless you somehow manage to draft a backup who’s closely behind them in the rankings, Jackson has even greater upside headed into his opener against last season’s Super Bowl champs.

Last season, Kansas City gave up the 10th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, allowing QBs average 16.95 points against their defense in standard format. Mahomes’ outlook is definitely less positive, as QBs only averaged 12.89 points against Baltimore last year. Still, he’s Patrick Mahomes. He shouldn’t have any idea as to what the bench looks like.

Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce

Similar to their quarterbacks above, Andrews and Kelce are just too productive to consider benching unless you’re in VERY shallow leagues. This past offseason, many fantasy gurus made the case for Andrews and Kelce to fall off this year, but don’t let those narratives deter you from starting either two in the season opener. If you do agree that their fantasy downfalls are imminent, there’s no harm in testing the waters with either tight end in your starting lineup. Kelce and Andrews are currently ranked as the No. 2 and No. 3 tight ends, respectively, only behind Sam LaPorta. It’s a no-brainer that should go without saying, but I’m saying it anyway: start them if you have them.

Xavier Worthy

Welp, Marquise Brown is officially out Week 1 (dislocated shoulder), meaning we won’t see what the sixth-year receiver has to offer against his former team. This bodes well for Xavier Worthy, who now will split targets with Kelce, Rashee Rice and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

I’m not saying by any means that Worthy will consume a larger portion of the target share, with Mahomes’ favorite options most likely being Kelce and Rice in the pass game. But, if those two find themselves heavily covered, Worthy might end up with the most air yards given his speed alone. A touchdown would not surprise me unless Nate Wiggins truly exceeds the hype.

Derrick Henry

I have to credit Ravens Vault’s Sarah Ellison for some interesting stats on King Henry against Kansas City:

Derrick Henry averages 5.73 yards per attempt against the Chiefs, which is the highest against any team in his career.

He also averages 111.8 yards per game against KC, which is the second highest in his career against any opponent.

Is there a secret to his success?

“Their… pic.twitter.com/3Ic7KGBF8R

— Sarah Ellison (@sgellison) September 1, 2024

The worry here is obviously how Gus Edwards was used against Kansas City in the AFC Championship game in January—a mind-boggling three carries that still has us all scratching our heads. And yes, I know, Gus Edwards is not Derrick Henry.

The last time Henry had three carries was during his rookie year in 2016. If John Harbaugh intends to correct his mistake from the championship, this won’t be as much of a pass heavy game. You can’t blame which way the wind blows when you have Derrick Henry, and the hope is that he won’t on Thursday night.

Others to start: Isiah Pacheco (RB), Zay Flowers (WR), Rashee Rice (WR), Justin Tucker (K), Harrison Butker (K)

Sit

Rashod Bateman

Garnering many mixed opinions this offseason, Bateman has much to prove before being locked into starting consideration. His highest finish last season in standard format was seven points, having only two other games in which he reached above five. Odell Beckham Jr. is out of the picture now which does open some opportunities for Bateman, but at the present time you must consider last year’s statistics. It’s too early to expect anything out of the ordinary in terms of his production this year, so wait a week to see if he can improve upon his 2023 numbers before moving him from your bench.

Ravens D/ST

FantasyPros ranks Baltimore’s defense as No. 1 headed into the regular season, and even so, you should still bench Roquan and Co. for their season opener against the league’s most touted offense. If you’re looking for a replacement this week, consider the Vikings, who play the Giants on Sunday. Streaming defenses was a fairly simple strategy last season as long as you kept up with who New York played each week. The Giants allowed an average of 14.44 points to fantasy defenses last year, exactly double what Kansas City allowed (7.22). We’ll see if the addition of Malik Nabers changes that, though.

Isaiah Likely

Historically, Isaiah Likely doesn’t carry much significance in fantasy when he shares the field with Mark Andrews. This doesn’t mean it’s not a good idea to keep him on your bench, as he serves as one of the league’s top handcuff candidates should Andrews sit out again this year.

Last season, Likely didn’t bring in his first touchdown until Week 14 when Andrews was four weeks removed from the starting roster. By Week 18, Likely reached five touchdowns, averaging 11.64 points in standard format over a four-week span (equating to just over 15 points in PPR).

The end-of-season numbers from last year look enticing, but don’t expect touchdowns with Andrews healthy.

Others to sit: Justice Hill (RB), Nelson Agholor (WR), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Marquise Brown (WR, out), Chiefs D/ST

Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em Dark Horses Around the League Start

Chris Godwin, WR

Being referred to as a WR3 or flex option heading into Week 1, 28-year-old Godwin enters his eighth NFL season as a seasoned veteran alongside Mike Evans on the Buccaneers. Averaging 7.4 points in standard format last season and a little over 12 in PPR, Godwin was a bit up and down but had respectable finishes in almost all 17 games that he played minus Week 9 against Houston. He’ll look to have a strong start against Washington’s secondary that allowed the most receiving touchdowns last year with 39.

Christian Watson, WR

Watson had a disappointing start in fantasy last season, barely getting over 10 PPR points in weeks four and five and then hitting a massive slump until Week 11 when he barely got over the 10-point hump again. He also carries a massive injury risk having missed 11 games over his past two seasons.

But what’s most enticing about Watson are his last two PPR finishes in 2023, in which he put up 20.4 points in Week 12 and 27.6 in Week 13. Combine that with the hype built around Green Bay this offseason and their matchup against Philadelphia which allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns last season (35) behind Washington—Watson has great potential for a great start to his third year in the league.

Sit

Xavier Legette, WR

Legette has garnered plenty of fantasy hype heading into his rookie year based solely on his abilities displayed at South Carolina and his finish as No. 2 for the most receiving yards in the SEC last year behind Malik Nabers. Although now as a Carolina Panther, he finds himself in a crowded receiving corps next to vets Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson and on an offense with a shaky group of linemen who left little room for Bryce Young to make plays last season. New Orleans doesn’t stand out as a team that’s notorious for its pressure on quarterbacks, but wait to see how targets will be shared before placing Legette in your lineup.

Tony Pollard, RB

Pollard is a low-end flex play heading into Week 1 after finishing as the 18th-best running back in fantasy last season. He’s expected to be an early down back with little to show in the pass game for Tennessee, but what hurts him most in his season opener is his matchup against Chicago which allowed the fewest rushing yards to opponents in 2023. The silver lining is that backs averaged 15.71 fantasy points against the Bears last year, but large contributors to that number were pass catchers. Tyjae Spears carries far more upside this week despite their close projections.

And finally, if you aren’t happy with the bench you drafted, check out my colleague Tanner George’s top free agent picks for this week.

Tanner’s Top Free Agents: Week 1

Good luck!

The post Suit Up those Ravens and Chiefs in Week 1! appeared first on Russell Street Report.

Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/09/03/fantasy/suit-up-those-ravens-and-chiefs-in-week-1/