BATTLE PLANS: Taking Down The G-Men

Ravens Offense v. Giants Defense Re-Establish the Line of Scrimmage

Let’s get one thing straight: the Ravens have zero excuses on Sunday. They are 16.5-point favorites on the road against the Giants, who are without their two best players (Andrew Thomas and Dexter Lawrence) while starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

But this should be more than an easy win for Baltimore. It should be a confidence-builder that gets this team – particularly the offense – back to the 30-point outburst that defined the first half of the season.

That will start, as much of the Ravens offense does, on the ground. Baltimore has gleefully gashed bad run defenses this year, and the Giants should be their latest victim. Here are some of their defense’s ranks in key rushing categories this year.

4.9 yards per play (third-highest)

+0.01 EPA/rush (sixth-highest)

+448 rush yards over expected (highest)

+1.28 RYOE/attempt (highest)

1.73 yards before contact/attempt (seventh-highest)

3.20 yards after contact/ attempt (eighth-highest)

54 explosive runs (third-highest)

The Giants are already missing Lawrence, and his replacement, Rakeem Nuñez-Roches as well as starting linebacker Bobby Okereke could be absent as well. This is an obvious get-right opportunity for a Ravens offensive line that missed a ton of blocks in Week 13 against a stout, well-coached Eagles front. They need to get back to basics and re-establishing physical dominance against an undermanned defensive line, the likes of which Baltimore has run all over this season.

Todd Monken should make a few key changes to last week’s game plan. The first is giving Charlie Kolar’s inline TE snaps to Patrick Ricard to add more heft in the run game. Ricard played just 19 snaps against the Eagles, including just nine on the line of scrimmage, his second-lowest total of the season. It was obvious that the run game was missing the numerical and schematic advantages of six and seven blockers up front against an aggressive, talented Eagles front seven.

The second is going back to some simpler run calls – dive, Power O, outside zone – to press Baltimore’s talent advantage and minimize disruption opportunities for the Giants defense. Their run defense is feast or famine, ranking sixth in run stuffs (69) but also yards before contact allowed (650). The Ravens need more down-blocks and less lateral movement to let Henry plunge through the line of scrimmage instead of navigating side to side trying to find a hole.

Don’t get Burnt by Burns

With Lawrence sidelined, the Giants’ pass rush relies primarily on Brian Burns, who leads the team with 47 pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari have not been as dangerous, combining for only 45 total pressures this year.

That has forced the Giants to call blitzes 30.9% of the time, the 10th-highest in the NFL. The consistent pressure hasn’t been there – their 32.7% pressure rate is 18th-highest – but their 8.7% sack rate leads the NFL. Burns is a solid finisher, but Thibodeaux and Ojulari are both susceptible to missed tackles.

The Ravens’ protection plan will be multifaceted, starting with consistent help on Burns’ side. He lines up over the left and right tackles, so Lamar Jackson needs to be aware of his alignment and make the right adjustments, whether that be slide protection, chips, or even using Ricard to straight-up double-team Burns off the edge if he’s taking over the game.

That will limit the resources that the Ravens can throw at Thibodeaux and Ojulari on the other side, but that actually works out in Baltimore’s favor. Jackson has been an absolute wizard at sack avoidance this year, so blocking Thibodeaux and Ojulari 1-on-1 out in space will give Jackson a better chance at forcing missed tackles to evade pressures and sacks and instead create explosive plays with his arm or his legs.

Start Out Fast

It’s worth saying again: Sunday’s game should never be competitive.

Ravens have everything to play for Sunday @ NYG, while the Giants nothing. Under John Harbaugh the Ravens have yet to win a game against the Giants on the road. NYG are 0-7 at home this season. What could possibly go wrong…..

— Morgan Adsit (@MorganAdsit) December 10, 2024

The key to avoiding a close game against an inferior opponent is taking the lead and never looking back, but the Ravens offense has struggled to start fast in the last month.

Monken needs to put his offense in a position to succeed on the opening drive. Instead of dialing up deep shots for Jackson – who sometimes needs a drive or two to settle in on downfield passes – Monken should inject some rhythm into the passing game with in-breakers, screens, and timing routes towards the sidelines at which Jackson excels. The Giants’ high blitz rate and second-lowest time to throw allowed, paint a picture of a defense that tries to force the ball out quickly so they can tackle after the catch. Scheming up quick passes into space (and/or with blockers out in front) has become a strength of the Ravens offense which will be especially effective against the Giants’ banged-up defense.

If Jackson is going to look downfield, it should be on his terms. The Giants may be looking for a drive-killing sack on the Ravens’ first possession. If Jackson sees the blitz coming, he should shift into a max-protect look to give himself and his receivers time to connect downfield.

Jackson should especially be targeting the seams with his tight ends out of heavy personnel packages, especially if Okereke is out on Sunday. The Giants’ other linebackers have struggled in coverage this year, while Jackson has completed 64.5% of his passes up the seams for 10 touchdowns and +60.2 EPA, which leads the NFL by 20.9.

The Ravens need to focus on methodically moving the ball down the field and let Jackson identify and create opportunities for explosive plays pre-snap. By avoiding the unforced errors that come with hunting big plays before settling in, Baltimore can dictate terms and build up an early lead that the Giants can’t overcome.

[Related Article: The First Meeting Between Jackson and DeVito]

Ravens Defense vs. Giants Offense Beat the Quick Game

The Giants are starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback on Sunday. He does not have the arm, processing, or athleticism to pick apart the Ravens defense, especially behind a shoddy offensive line. Brian Daboll is going to try to scheme up quick passes to get the ball to his playmakers – primarily Malik Nabers, Wan’dale Robinson, and Tyrone Tracy.

The Ravens can start by being faster: flying to the ball as a team, even with Kyle Hamilton playing farther away from the line of scrimmage. Roquan Smith is still an apex predator against the run, whether that be playing downhill against inside runs or chasing outside runs sideline-to-sideline. Zach Orr has figured out the linebacker rotation next to Smith with Chris Board and Trenton Simpson; keeping them both fresh throughout the game will allow them to continue tackling well in space.

The Ravens can also be smarter against the quick game. Orr needs to focus on creating free rushers off the edge while coaching his pass-rushers to get their hands up when DeVito draws to throw. While Hamilton should still be playing free safety on obvious passing downs, Orr should bring him back to the line of scrimmage on early downs so he can resume his title as Destroyer of Screens.

Just watched the Giants struggle badly at practice during a red-zone drill in the cold and heavy winds (32 mph). All 17 passes went incomplete.

Weather expected to be around 40 degrees with winds up to 11 mph on Sunday vs. Ravens.

— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 12, 2024

More than anything, the Ravens need to be aware of the situation. High winds will deter the Giants from looking downfield, and they’ll look to create YAC opportunities in the short areas instead. Nothing in this game should catch the Ravens by surprise, especially not a quick passing game designed to take pressure off of DeVito and the offensive line.

Chaos and Confusion

Another way to neutralize the quick game is to slow down DeVito’s processing and make him think twice before releasing the ball. The Ravens struggled with their pre/post-snap disguises to start the year, but have rounded into form over the last few weeks after the big change to Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington as split safeties.

Orr has generally declined to blitz heavily, but his simulated pressures against the Eagles forced Jalen Hurts to hold onto the ball and decipher coverages. That should be the play against DeVito, showing heavy pressure at the line of scrimmage before dropping into his quick-throwing lanes. He’ll either make a bad decision to throw the ball, or hold onto it long enough for the Ravens’ pass rush to get home against a porous offensive line. Orr can help his pass rush out by empowering them to run more stunts and twists with Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh looping inside off of picks set by Travis Jones and Nnamdi Madubuike.

Orr has largely refused to drop his defensive linemen into coverage like Mike Macdonald did last year. Even among his edge rushers, only Van Noy plays more than one or two coverage snaps per game, making the pass rush too predictable without droppers to cut off quick underneath passes.

Finally, Orr needs to install disguised coverages designed to take away deep passes. Like most second- and third-string quarterbacks, DeVito has a gunslinger mentality. When he sees pressure pre-snap, his instinct will be to look for a big play and punish the Ravens deep. Now that the secondary is rounding into form, Orr can afford to trot out more exotic coverage designs like this one:

This is nasty by the Ravens. The bail Kyle Hamilton from the line of scrimmage all the way to the single high safety.

This is also just gross by the Eagles. pic.twitter.com/h0W5yt23Lr

— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) December 3, 2024

This is a creative way of using Kyle Hamilton as a threat at the line of scrimmage while making sure he’s an asset in coverage when the play actually starts. DeVito will look to lob balls over the incoming blitzers and give his receivers a chance to make a play on the ball. Instead, Hamilton can be lying in wait to force the kind of turnover that will keep this game out of reach for the Giants.

Win in the Open Field

The main way the Ravens’ defense can lose this game is by giving up big plays. Two-high safety looks on obvious passing downs should help them keep balls from going over their head, but the Giants can still find space before and after the catch, especially in the middle of the field.

Deep digs by A.J. Brown burned Baltimore in Week 13; expect to see similar routes from Malik Naber and Wan’Dale Robinson, the Giants’ primary threats in the middle of the field. It will be up to Roquan Smith to hit his depth in zone drops to force tighter windows for DeVito’s intermediate passes. Even if Smith can’t break up the pass, he has to position himself to take Nabers down right after the catch instead of letting the speedster get loose for an explosive play.

The Giants may present an added wrinkle of difficulty to Smith’s MOF coverage with their success rushing inside the tackles against light boxes. The Ravens will want to respond with stacked boxes and linebackers mugging the A gap, which Daboll will try to exploit with passes to the middle of the field off of play action.

Orr has to combine those looks with press coverage and safety help to make sure he doesn’t give up the middle of the field. Press coverage will give linebackers more time to hit their landmarks in coverage, while both Washington and Hamilton can buzz the middle of the field to discourage and disrupt those passes.

1-on-1 Matchup: Malik Nabers vs. Nate Wiggins

Malik Nabers has lined up as an outside receiver on more than 75% of his snaps this year, setting up a matchup with Nate Wiggins who plays 93.8% of his snaps as the Ravens’ left outside cornerback.

Nabers ranks first in receptions and ninth in receiving yards from an outside alignment (first among rookies). He’s faced three yards of separation or fewer on 64.3% of those targets, while Wiggins has allowed three-plus yards on just 16.7% of his targets. Wiggins’  43.8% completion rate allowed is the second-lowest among outside cornerbacks with at least 25 targets, and his 20.8% ball hawk rate ranks seventh.

Wiggins has two key directives in this matchup. The first is to keep Nabers from picking up breakaway yards. Even if he makes a catch, Wiggins needs to stay sound in his tackling technique and limit the yards after the catch. But even more importantly, Wiggins needs to get physical and make life as hard as possible for Nabers. His body language when he is uninvolved in the Giants’ offense is clear as day. If Nabers looks unengaged because he’s not seeing the ball, that won’t just take one of the Giants’ best playmakers out of the game, it will also help the Ravens defense diagnose what’s coming from the rest of New York’s offense.

All stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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