Battle Plans: Time to Flip the Script

Ravens Offense vs. Steelers Defense

Embrace the Grind 

The Ravens need to learn from their past mistakes and come into this game ready to grind out yards against the Steelers at the beginning and the end of the game.

In Week 11, Todd Monken called just four designed rushes across three first-quarter drives as Lamar Jackson hunted for big plays downfield. This week, the offense needs to win in the short areas of the field first, both on the ground and through the air.

Baltimore’s rushing attack was very efficient against the Steelers last time out, led by a stellar performance from Jackson (11 yards and +0.70 EPA per attempt). He and Derrick Henry found the most success against light boxes, an area in which Pittsburgh has consistently struggled this season. They have been a top-five run defenses in the NFL this year, but fall out of the top 10 when defending with a light box.

The Ravens, meanwhile, have demolished light, neutral, and stacked boxes all year, so they should have no problem spreading out the defense and running the ball. Monken can maintain his personnel advantage by splitting Mark Andrews and/or Isaiah Likely into the slot and using the read-option game with Jackson. He has been brilliant on designed rushes this season (5.6 yards per rush, 16 explosive runs) and burned the Steelers for 47 yards on three carries in Week 11. His ability to create a numbers advantage on the ground is the ultimate edge in a game where every yard matters. Getting Jackson the ball early on will force the defense to devote more and more attention to him, which can set up opportunities for explosive pass plays later in the game.

When the Ravens want to go with heavier personnel and pound the football, they should do so between the tackles. Just like their light box defense, the Steelers are one of the best defending outside runs but are closer to league-average up the middle. Monken should get back to some of the wham and trap concepts that demolished the Bills back in Week 5.

The Ravens also need to follow the Eagles’ example and dominate time of possession in the second half. Much was made of Henry’s lack of second-half touches in Week 11, but turnovers and the game script kept him off the field. The Ravens have to improve in both aspects this week by taking care of the football throughout the game and not rushing to score at the beginning or end of the game. These matchups with the Steelers are physical battles of attrition, and the Ravens need to be the ones dictating terms and controlling the line of scrimmage.

Go Fast To Go Far

The Ravens shouldn’t hunt for explosive plays downfield for another reason: they’re perfectly capable of creating them with quick passes and yards after the catch. Here are Lamar Jackson’s stats on passes under 2.5 seconds this season (ranks in parentheses).

• 5 yards per attempt (1st)
• 7% completion rate (1st)
• 9% explosive play rate (2nd)
• +0.31 EPA/dropback (1st)
• +43.5 EPA (4th)
• 9 yards of average separation (1st)
• 6% tight window rate (1st)

Translation: when Jackson is operating in rhythm, he is unstoppable. In a way, the idea of getting the ball out of Jackson’s hands runs counterintuitive to his ability to connect on deep passes on a long dropback. But they actually go hand in hand, with a timing-driven early-down passing game setting up the deep ball later on.

The Giants game was an excellent example of that synergy, with the Ravens using both the run and their quick passing game to force the defense closer to the line of scrimmage before taking advantage over the top. Jackson was in full command of the offense and didn’t throw into a tight window all game.

He needs to establish the same rhythm on Saturday, finding his best matchups against the Steelers’ man coverage and trusting his pass-catchers to make a play. Monken can help him out with more designed completions into space and/or with blockers as opposed to pushing the ball downfield against single-high coverages. It’s worth noting that Jackson’s 2.6 air yards per attempt on quick passes is the third-lowest in the NFL. That shows how the Ravens’ playmakers have also embraced their roles as ballcarriers and blockers on screens and RPOs this year.

The Steelers blitzed Jackson at a 45.7% clip in Week 11, so the Ravens will need to execute their blitz-beaters, whether that’s a hot read to a receiver or a designed screen that can turn into an explosive play.

If Steelers-Ravens matchups are a heavyweight boxing match, Baltimore needs to be peppering their opponent with jabs right away, softening up the defense for the explosive knockouts they’re capable of generating when they don’t force it. Rashod Bateman’s potential absence on Saturday would leave the Ravens without one of their best deep threats, heightening the need to establish an efficient underneath passing game early on.

Chip Away On The Edge

The Ravens have the personnel and the playbook to take advantage of the Steelers’ frequent single-high man-coverage, but the offensive line has to buy Jackson enough time to do so.

That is always a challenge against T.J. Watt and Co., though he was held to two pressures on 27 pass rushes in Week 11. Roger Rosengarten allowed just one in 19 matchups, though he had a ton of help with consistent chips from other players. Watt has been chipped on 32.74% of his pass rushes this year, per Pro Football Focus, by far the highest in the NFL. That strategy has worked, as Watt’s pressure rate has dropped to career-low levels according to both PFF and Next Gen Stats.

When he is able to get pressure, Watt still causes havoc. He has four turnovers (second-most) and a 26.1% pressure-to-sack ratio (compared to a 14.6% league average) this season, so Monken needs to constantly slow him down coming off the edge.

On the other side is Nick Herbig, who led the Steelers’ pass rush with five pressures in Week 11 and a 19.4% pressure rate this year. 14 of his 34 pressures have come in the fourth quarter, where his pressure rate jumps to 25.5% compared to 16.8% in the first three. The Ravens can’t afford to give more resources to Ronnie Stanley’s side; instead, he has to regain the advantage in this matchup. One way is technical: stop oversetting and leaving himself vulnerable to inside counters or getting walked back into the pocket.

Another is strategic: run behind Stanley, right at Herbig, who has not been as consistent as a run defender this season. That will help wear him down over the course of the game and limit his pass-rushing impact in the fourth quarter. The Steelers’ outside run defense has been one of the best in the league, but the Ravens still racked up 102 yards on 11 carries outside the tackles in Week 11, mostly to the left side.

If the Ravens can use the pass and the run to attack the Steelers’ edges and wear them down over the course of the game, they could prime a signature Henry knockout blow on the ground in the second half.

Ravens Defense vs. Steelers Offense

Don’t Panic vs. Deep Ball

The Ravens’ defensive renaissance began in Week 11 in Pittsburgh with Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington taking away the deep ball in split-safety shells. Russell Wilson averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt, which dropped to 4.83 YPA when not targeting George Pickens.

Pickens is listed as OUT, taking away Wilson’s best, most consistent deep threat. Just under 50% of his production over 20 air yards has come when targeting Pickens, who has 16 deep targets (1st), eight deep receptions (2nd) and a 47.1% deep target share (5th) since Week 7 (when Wilson took over as QB).

The Steelers’ other receivers simply aren’t at the same level as Pickens on deep balls, and that has shown in the last two weeks. Wilson has been forced to get rid of the ball quickly to dink and dunk his way down the field. His average time to throw of 2.38 seconds in Week 15 was his quickest since 2019 and the quickest of any QB with 20 or more passing attempts since 2016. He attempted just two deep passes against the Eagles and threw past the sticks just 13.6% of the time, his lowest rate since at least 2016.

The Ravens have been excellent defending the deep ball in recent weeks, consistently forcing tight windows and tough catches. Their main vulnerability is trying to make catches impossible and drawing penalties in the process. While the flags are still a concern, it’s an easier problem to address than the blown coverages that plagued the Ravens to start the year.

Baltimore’s secondary needs to trust themselves and avoid the late grabs and pushes that result in penalties. Pickens is capable of making the near-impossible contested deep catches, but the rest of Pittsburgh’s receivers combined for two catches for three yards on four targets while running a total of 64 routes. In other words, they’re not getting open enough to draw targets in the first place, much less downfield. Don’t give them the yards; force them to earn it.

Change The Picture Post-Snap

The Ravens simplified and streamlined their coverage scheme against the Steelers in Week 11, running two-high man looks out of dime packages, which severely limited Wilson’s ability to throw downfield. He went three of eight for 79 yards and an interception on passes over 10 air yards, while completing 20 of 24 passes under 10 air yards for 126 yards.

Wilson was accurate but inefficient underneath, something the Ravens should force again on Saturday. This time, though, they can be more aggressive with their pre- and post-snap alignments to cloud the picture for Wilson.

Wilson leads the NFL with 6.3 air yards per attempt and a 18.1% explosive play rate on passes under 2.5 seconds because of his ability to quickly identify and target open space. The Ravens invited that in Week 11, choosing to keep plays in front of them and close and tackle underneath.

They should do the same in obvious passing situations on Saturday, but on early and short-yardage downs, Zach Orr should get more creative to force Wilson to hold onto the ball longer in hopes of some splash plays, whether that be a sack or a turnover.

Orr has gradually reintroduced Baltimore’s signature disguised coverages over the last few weeks, catalyzed by the solid communication of Hamilton and Washington on the back end. Defenders are dropping off the line of scrimmage and hitting their post-snap landmarks, forcing quarterbacks to re-process to find an open target.

Wilson’s strategy on Saturday will be built around his pre-snap analysis telling him where to go with the ball. If the Ravens can alter the picture enough, Wilson will have to hold onto the ball, giving the pass rush more time to get home and forcing the veteran quarterback into worse decisions. The Ravens can make it even harder on him with delayed blitzes from the second level from defenders that looked like they were dropping into coverage, while would-be blitzers do the inverse.

The Steelers will be looking for the Ravens to use man coverage with Pickens out, so some pre-snap man looks that morph into zone post-snap could bring out some turnover opportunities. Wilson may think he has a 1-on-1 matchup to one side of the field when in reality, another defender will be lurking in zone coverage nearby. That will also help Brandon Stephens keep his eyes on the quarterback instead of getting caught up in coverage and drawing penalties.

Grind It Out, Defensive Edition

The Ravens have issued some memorable quotes regarding the Steelers over the years. Who can forget Terrell Suggs laying claim to Ben Roethlisberger’s behind?

Suggs had another great quote in 2011: “We have been declared war upon. We are the enemy of the state.”

The Ravens need to embrace that attitude against the Steelers offense on Saturday. Too often, Pittsburgh’s defense has been the aggressor in this matchup; Baltimore needs to wrest back control by setting a physical tone on the defensive side of the ball.

Roquan Smith was ready after the Giants game: “I know, myself, personally, I’m ready to go out on my shield, one way or another, and I know a lot of the guys in the locker room feel the same exact way, so that’s what it’s going to be. Check your manhood, do your job. Do that, we’ll win the game.”

The Ravens need to replicate their stout run and red zone defense from Week 11 with a few key improvements. Getting the Steelers off the field quickly by stuffing early-down runs and creating winnable late-down passing situations will help the Ravens control field position and time of possession. Without Pickens, the Steelers will need to use play action to set up deep shots, so holding firm against the run up front will allow the secondary to stay disciplined in pass coverage.

The return of Michael Pierce had a big impact last week, and it will be even more important against a Steelers offense that ran 77 plays in Week 11. Pierce is a known quantity at this point: eater of space and double-teams in the middle with an uncanny ability to reach out of blocks to make stops. His presence on the field doesn’t just bring those skills; it also allows for more even defensive line rotations that keep Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones fresh for the end of the game.

In Week 11, the Ravens did a great job flowing to the ball and attacking downhill against the run, especially outside the tackles. The Steelers averaged 3.5 yards per carry outside the tackles (in line with the 3.4 YPC allowed by the Ravens league-leading outside run defense) with a season-low -39 rush yards over expected. Pittsburgh also struggles against stacked boxes, so Hamilton should creep into the box and line up off the edge on early downs and short-yardage situations (he should remain as a deep safety in obvious passing situations.)

That will give the Ravens a chance at taking advantage of Harris’ slow acceleration out of the backfield. He has an average of 9.17 MPH at the line of scrimmage and a 50.7% rate of being contacted behind the line of scrimmage, which both rank in the bottom seven among RBs with at least 100 carries. Harris runs from under center 76% of the time, giving Baltimore a clear indicator of when to stack the box. They also need to keep an eye out for runs from Jaylen Warren on early downs, which burned them in Week 11. From there, it’s just a matter of improving on missed tackles. They had 14 in Week 11, almost double their season average, per PFF.

1-on-1 Matchup

Odafe Oweh & Kyle Van Noy vs. Dan Moore & Broderick Jones

Odafe Oweh was excellent against the Steelers in Week 11, leading the Ravens with six pressures and 2.5 sacks on 25 pass rushes. Those stats would be even higher without a few play-nullifying penalties from the secondary. Kyle Van Noy was not as clinical of a finisher, but both players consistently beat Dan Moore and Broderick Jones off the edge and force Wilson to scramble or make bad throws. Their ability to win on the outside forced Wilson to step up into the pocket rather than rolling out where he is more comfortable (and dangerous). A league-high 26.8% of his passes have come on the run (8+ MPH).

Both Van Noy and Oweh have chip rates under 10% this year, and the Steelers largely resisted sending extra help in Week 11. That sets up both players for big games against Jones and Moore, who have allowed a combined 64 pressures in 2024, one of the worst marks by a team’s tackle duo.

With Pierce, Jones, and Madubuike occupying double-teams on the inside, the runway will be clear for Van Noy and Oweh to win on the edge to disrupt the Steelers’ quick passing game and force Wilson to maneuver in the pocket where he struggles. If the Ravens can get pressure with four, Orr can create synergy between his pass rush and coverage plan. The secondary can execute more complex coverage schemes on the back end, and Wilson won’t have anywhere to go with the ball before the pass rush gets home.

All stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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