Best Player Prop Bets for Ravens-Giants

We have officially hit the home stretch of the season. With only four regular season games remaining, the Ravens currently sit second in the AFC North at 8-5, coming off a bye and traveling up to New York to face the 2-11 Giants. A matchup like this is a breath of fresh air for the Ravens, who rank 6^th in strength of schedule at this point of the season (Per Sharp Analytics). Sunday presents the Ravens with an opportunity to generate some positive momentum for the late season stretch, with a rematch against the division leading Pittsburgh Steelers on the horizon. As long as they play their game and don’t beat themselves, which has been easier said than done this season, the Ravens shouldn’t have a problem with the Giants, who will be led by third string quarterback Tommy Devito. Sunday also presents us with the opportunity to stay hot in the player props department, as a perfect 5-0 sweep in the most recent game against the Eagles brought our overall record on the season to 41-19.

Here is what I’ll be taking in the Ravens Week 15 matchup against the struggling Giants.

Let’s stay hot!

*Using FanDuel this week as the full slate of props wasn’t up on ESPN Bet at the time of writing this*

Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

The Giants season is over. Just about everything that could have possibly gone wrong for them has gone wrong as they sit at 2-11 and are losers of eight straight. Their focus is solely on the future at this point. Unfortunately for them however, they still have to play the games. For a team and defense who has already given up, tackling Derrick Henry 20+ times in the December cold seems like the very last thing you would want. Henry has historically turned it up a notch late in the season and has shown no signs of slowing down as this season has progressed. In a game where the Ravens are favored by 16.5 points, we can expect them to get out to an early lead, and their offensive scheme when holding a lead is not a secret. They will pound the rock until the defense proves they can stop it. This has the feel of one of the games where you look up at the box score and the Ravens have 250+ rushing yards. If that’s the case, you can be sure that Henry will reach this mark on Sunday.

Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

This selection may be more reactionary than data driven. In the post-game press conference after the loss to the Eagles two weeks ago, Lamar mentioned that his mom cursed him out after the game, telling him he needs to start taking off more when the lanes are there instead of fully committing to getting the ball to his teammates. I agree with Mrs. Jackson here. Sometimes I feel as if Lamar Jackson forgets he’s Lamar Jackson and that he can basically do whatever he wants with the ball in his hands. If you’ve seen the clip, it’s easy to tell that Lamar also agrees. Lamar’s inhuman pocket presence and escapability repeatedly leads to chances for him to go off-script and take off, so the opportunities will always be there. With the division title well within reach, the Ravens need to have a strong finish to the regular season and Lamar knows that. My money is on Lamar listening to mom and leaning more on his legs down the stretch.

Lamar Jackson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-174 ESPN Bet)

A very underrated part of Jackson’s game this year has been his ability to protect the ball. Through 13 games, he has only thrown three interceptions, the 34^th most in the league, meaning there are backup quarterbacks out there with more picks thrown than Lamar. The Giants defense on the other hand has struggled in the takeaway department, ranking dead last in the NFL with only two interceptions on the season. In a matchup with a quarterback who has been the best in the business at avoiding turnovers vs a defense who is the worst in the league at generating them, -174 is a great value play here.

Tommy Devito Under 184.5 Passing Yards (-113 FanDuel)

This is a great matchup for a Ravens defense who has been playing their best ball as of late. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank 2^nd in total yards per game, 1^st in yards per play, and 2^nd in passing yards per game; a complete 180 from the unit we saw throughout the start of the season. Credit to the coaching staff for making the right mid-season adjustments. Having Kyle Hamilton play primarily as a deep safety and bumping Marlon Humphrey into the slot has been a great formula, and we can only expect them to keep building on the recent success this week against the lowly Giants offense on their third string quarterback. Other than Malik Nabers, the Giants just don’t have the weapons on the outside to threaten the Ravens secondary, and if the defensive line can continue to cause chaos in the backfield, it will be a long afternoon for Devito. Under 185 passing yards feels like a comfortable spot here for Devito in his first start of the season.

Malik Nabers Under 64.5 Receiving yards (-113 ESPN Bet)

Malik Nabers is a stud, and there’s no denying that. Unfortunately for him, however, he is in about as bad a position you could find yourself in as an elite wide receiver in this league. He has Tommy Devito throwing him the ball, and he is the only weapon on the outside that poses a threat, so you can be sure the Ravens defense will be paying extra attention to him on every snap. A particular matchup to watch this Sunday will be Nabers vs. fellow rookie Nate Wiggins. Per NFL Pro, Wiggins has allowed a 43.8% completion percentage, 2^nd lowest among 107 outside cornerbacks with at least 25 targets. Nabers, who has lined up on the outside on 75.2% of his snaps this season with 260 snaps aligned wide to the right (where Wiggins has lined up 94% of his snaps) will surely have a lot of reps against Wiggins who has proved to be a tough customer early in his career. With Tommy Devito responsible for getting him the ball, I’m confident in Wiggins and the Ravens defense to hold Nabers under this mark on Sunday.

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