Legit Baseball Insider Feels Good About His Prediction For Roki Sasaki

Predicting where Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki will end up in Major League Baseball is like predicting the weather in April: a mix of guesswork, hope, and squinting at some charts. But ESPN’s David Schoenfield has been among the boldest to venture a forecast. Granted, even Schoenfield admits, “It’s just guessing at this point.”

The Yankees and Mets are both leaning hard into their Big Apple charm to woo Sasaki to the East Coast. Meanwhile, West Coast teams seem to have the natural edge, thanks to their geographical closeness to Japan and the allure of fewer time zones to traverse. The Dodgers, Padres, and perhaps even a surprise contender all remain in the mix. Honestly, it’s a bit like trying to guess which of your friends will actually show up to brunch—everyone says they’re interested, but who knows?

“I’ll stick to my original prediction here,” Schoenfield wrote on Tuesday, doubling down on his Padres pick. “From a career standpoint, it makes sense for him to go to a team in a good park for pitchers, so that could mean any of the West Coast teams (aside from the A’s)—who might already have a small geographical advantage anyway. The Dodgers can pitch their winning ways, while the Padres can sell their smaller market and playing alongside Yu Darvish, Sasaki’s favorite player as a kid. Of course, don’t rule out the Yankees or Mets if the big-market ‘issue’ isn’t really an issue.”

In short: The West Coast has mountains and nice weather; the East Coast has… bagels and Broadway.

The Dodgers, as usual, bring their A-game to the table. They’ve built a reputation as the honors students of pitching development, and the addition of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to their roster only strengthens their appeal. Who wouldn’t want to join a team where your potential roommates are other Japanese superstars?

But don’t sleep on the Padres. San Diego offers a chill, mid-market vibe that might suit Sasaki just fine. Plus, Yu Darvish—the pitcher Sasaki grew up idolizing—is ready to roll out the welcome mat (and maybe even throw in some surf lessons). Oh, and let’s not forget Hideo Nomo, the original trailblazing Japanese MLB star, who happens to be a special assistant for the Padres. Talk about a recruiting dream team.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets are hovering like big-market hawks, ready to swoop in with their massive checkbooks. If Sasaki doesn’t mind the bright lights and high rents, they could still make a compelling case.

Schoenfield thinks the Padres have the edge, but at the end of the day, it’s anyone’s game. Sasaki’s decision will not only shape his career but also leave one fanbase fist-pumping while the others wonder what might have been. Stay tuned—it’s going to be a wild ride.