Battle Plans: Grounding the Moon Balls & Getting After Russ

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When the Steelers Have the Ball…

Defend the Moon Balls

The Steelers never got a chance to play the bad version of the Ravens defense, which was among the worst at defending passes over 20 air yards. Heading into the first matchup in Week 11, Zach Orr knew he needed to make a switch against Russell Wilson, who has hunted for deep completions his whole career. He leads the NFL in completions (61) and yards (2,792) on passes over 2.5 seconds since 2016. Wilson has attempted 22 of those moon balls this year, completing four for 181 yards and two touchdowns.

Starting in Week 11, Kyle Hamilton’s average depth has jumped from 5.3 to 9.5 yards, with 69.3% of his snaps coming at deep safety. With more split-safety looks with Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington, the Ravens defense has allowed just 159 passing yards on a 25.0% completion rate on deep passing attempts, both top-five marks in the last eight weeks.

Wilson prefers to see single-high safety coverages that simplify his reads on the outside. In Week 16, he averaged 2.76 seconds to throw against single-high looks, as opposed to 4.12 seconds against split safeties. He was much more efficient when able to get the ball out quickly, completing all 10 of his passes with a +26.8 completion rate over expected for 79 yards and both of his touchdowns.

Split-safety shells won’t just take away the deep ball; it will also empower the Ravens cornerbacks to press at the line of scrimmage to take away easy underneath completions.

The Steelers will also be more incentivized to run the ball against Baltimore’s elite run defense. Even when using a light box, they allow just 4.2 yards per carry and -0.15 EPA/rush. Opponents rush for nearly half a yard less than expected against the Ravens’ light boxes.

That has been the case in the Ravens’ first two matchups with the Steelers, partially because Hamilton and Washington can still impact the run game from deeper alignments while avoiding getting caught out of position against play action.

Bait the Middle

Running split-safety shells with a focus on the outside passing game will also force Wilson to work over the middle of the field where he is less comfortable. His 48.8% rate of passing between the numbers is the second-lowest in the NFL.

A combination of press-man and underneath zone coverage by the Ravens boundary cornerbacks will limit Wilson’s ability to quickly locate an open man on the outside. When he can’t do that, he has a tendency to ignore the middle of the field and go right to his tight ends and running backs in the flat.

Marlon Humphrey and the Ravens linebackers need to be ready to break on those checkdowns. The Steelers’ pass-catchers aren’t especially effective after the catch, but Warren, Harris, and Pat Freiermuth have burned Baltimore in the past. Flying downhill against those short passes will lead to short gains, at worst, and potentially PBUs or turnovers.

Battle Plans: The Blueprint to Beating the Steelers Defense

Maintaining outside leverage and forcing Wilson to work underneath will take away the explosive element of the Steelers’ offense. The Ravens shouldn’t abandon the middle of the field, but they should challenge Wilson to beat them there rather than his comfort zone on the outside, as Cincinnati did last week when they held Wilson to 17/31 for 148 yards and one TD.

Ted Nguyen of The Athletic broke it down:

If he does start to target the middle of the field, the Ravens can have Hamilton or Washington buzz down into the box from a split-safety alignment. Baltimore has used disguised coverages less frequently against the Steelers (32.4% of dropbacks) compared to their 43.5% rate on the season because they want to discourage the deep ball with two-high looks. However, they can still morph into Cover 3 post-snap later in the game, especially on shorter third downs where Wilson will be focused on moving the chains.

Baiting the middle also applies to the run game. The Ravens will have a clear advantage against the Steelers rushing offense and should invite runs into the teeth of their defense. Harris and Warren have combined for -41.0 total EPA when rushing this year despite frequently rushing out of heavy personnel.

The Steelers use multiple tight ends at the sixth-highest rate (45.0%), but they average the seventh-fewest yards per play (4.3). The specific tight ends deployed will be a key indicator for the Ravens defense. Pittsburgh’s rush rate hovers around 70% when MyCole Pruitt and Connor Heyward are in the game, while Darnell Washington is used more frequently in the passing game.

Matching Pruitt and Heyward with base personnel will help the Ravens slow the Steelers’ heavy rushing attack, but they should trust their nickel packages when Washington joins Freiermuth on the field. Baltimore should dare Pittsburgh to succeed where they normally struggle and let their talent and schematic advantages take care of the rest.

Outside-In Pass Rush

The Ravens have been able to attack the Steelers’ tackle duo of Dan Moore Jr. and Broderick Jones in both games this year. Jones’ 16.5 sacks allowed lead all offensive lineman, while Jones has allowed the third-most pressures (66) and the sixth-highest pressure rate (11.9%) among all right tackles.

Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy should be teeing off on Moore and Jones all game with a focus of collapsing the pocket on Wilson. Some early obvious passing downs should feature straight four-man rushes with underneath coverages that force Wilson to hold onto the ball and go through his reads. Oweh and Van Noy should be able to manage some pressure then, but Orr should start bringing out more exotic packages as the Steelers adjust. They’ll use tight ends and running backs to chip the edges, and the Ravens should respond by dropping their edges into coverage and bringing overload pressure to the opposite side of Pittsburgh’s help.

The Ravens have the highest rate of simulated pressure this year (3.1%) with top-10 rates of creepers (4.0%) and dropping defenders from the line of scrimmage (32.4%). These schemes will create open paths to the quarterback while still dropping seven players into coverage.

That has helped the Ravens record the second-most sacks (54) despite the eighth-lowest pressure rate (31.4%). Their 24.4% pressure-to-sack conversion leads the league and has played a role against the Steelers this year, with seven sacks of Wilson on just 26 pressures (26.9%)

Crucially, the pass rush plan has to have synergy with coverage downfield. On straight rushes, the Ravens need to use press or underneath zone coverage to give their rushers time to get home. When using simulated pressures, they need to roll coverage to replace the area vacated by the blitzer, as that’s where Wilson will be trying to go. And when Orr brings a five- or six-man blitz, he should pair it with zone or off-man coverage to let his cornerbacks keep their eyes on the QB to make a play on the ball (or a quick stop after a completion).

The Ravens’ tendency to give up explosive plays at the worst moments has been their key weakness as a defense over the last two years. In a game in which they are heavily favored, they should force the Steelers to earn every yard and not get caught in single-coverage downfield.

1-on-1 Matchup: George Pickens vs. Brandon Stephens

George Pickens has aligned as the left outside wide receiver on 403 snaps this season, compared to 230 on the right side and 139 in the slot, per Pro Football Focus. Like it or not, he will be matching up against Brandon Stephens, who has historically struggled against the 2022 second-rounder, and has generally been opposing QBs’ favorite target.

Pickens has caught seven of his nine targets for 119 yards against Stephens in their last two matchups (Week 11 this year and Week 5 in 2023), per PFF. He is the key to the Steelers’ deep passing game, as evidenced by his on/off splits.

Pickens on the field: 8.2 yards per attempt, +2.1 completion rate over expected, 14.2% tight window rate

Off the field: 6.0 yards per attempt, +0.0 CROE, 7.9% tight window rate

Despite targeting Pickens in more tight windows, the Steelers are more efficient with him on the field. He ranks among the top five receivers on targets with a completion probability under 50% over the past two seasons with 1,429 yards (+479 over expected).

Stephens is more than capable of forcing those tight windows, but he is consistently too late to turn his head around. He has to use the sidelines and trust his safeties to help over the top while keeping his eyes on the quarterback to remain competitive at the catch point. Switching between press and off coverage will disrupt his rhythm with Wilson and give Stephens a chance to dictate terms in the matchup.

There’s also a psychological game to be played against Pickens. Maintaining outside leverage to limit his targets and forcing him to work underneath instead will frustrate the mercurial wideout. He is susceptible to drops and will stop doing the dirty work as a blocker if he feels ignored in the passing game.

Crucially, Stephens can’t panic when targeted in single-coverage downfield. He has to use leverage and spacing to box Pickens out at the catch point instead of smothering him and drawing a flag. Pickens may still make a circus catch, but Stephens has to be able to bounce back instead of letting bad reps snowball over the course of the game.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/01/10/ravens-battle-plans/steelers-wild-card/