Battle Plans: Keeping it (Mostly) Simple Against Banged Up Browns

When the Ravens Have the Ball

Play the Hits

The Ravens won’t need to pull out all the stops to move the ball against the Browns, nor should they. Past years have proven that the Browns are never to be taken lightly, but Todd Monken should already have the formula to beat their banged-up defense.

Here’s where the Browns’ Week 1 depth chart stands entering Week 18 after a year of injuries, trades, etc. (And this doesn’t include players with questionable designations, either.)

Ravens are 18-point favorites, and that spread might grow. pic.twitter.com/FaAOEYJtBQ

— Jonas Shaffer (@jonas_shaffer) January 2, 2025

Baltimore’s strategy should be a familiar one: roll out heavy personnel to establish a strong running game and force the Browns into base personnel. Like most NFL defenses, Cleveland prefers to use a nickel defense, but they’re especially shorthanded in the front seven. They may not come out in base personnel to defend the run, but they will need to bring out extra linebackers to make up for the talent deficiency up front.

Trap and wham concepts from under center have been effective against penetrating 4-3 defenses like the Bills and the Texans, so Monken should go back to that well on Saturday. (Even when the Browns are in nickel personnel, their defensive front still utilizes 4-3 personnel and philosophy against the run.)

All signs point to another big game for Derrick Henry. He is among the top five running backs in yards before (1.9/attempt, 572 total) and after contact (4.0/attempt, 1,208 total) this year, with career-highs in rushing yards over expected (+474) and rushing success rate (48.5%). Henry’s efficiency has actually been higher when he gets at least 24 carries due to his ability to wear down opposing defenses over the course of a drive, not to mention an entire game.

The Ravens don’t need to eliminate shotgun runs and toss plays from their arsenal, but those kind of plays invite the backfield penetration the Browns use to feast. Cleveland owns the league’s highest rate of both run stuffs (25.4%) and contacting ballcarriers behind the line of scrimmage (54.1%). Avoiding negative plays on early downs will be crucial to Baltimore’s ability to extend drives and control the clock.

Of course, once the Browns go into base personnel, Monken can unleash his tight ends against a linebacker group that can’t hope to consistently cover Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in man coverage. Against zone, Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman should run deep over routes with a tight end sitting down underneath.

Jackson tore apart zone coverage in Cleveland in Week 8 but was not as effective against man. This time, though, the Browns don’t have the personnel to sustain man coverage all game, which should give Jackson plenty of opportunities to pick Cleveland apart downfield.

Protect the Pocket on High-Leverage Downs

The Ravens lost that Week 8 matchup against the Browns on high-leverage downs, going 2-for-10 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth. That simply has to change this week.

An effective early-down run game will help the Ravens avoid the third-and-longs that plagued them in Cleveland. That’s when going into the shotgun and using Jackson’s legs (or the threat thereof) will lead to easy conversions that keep the Browns defense on the field.

Working third-and-shorts isn’t automatic, though. The Ravens will need to be prepared for the Browns’ man blitzes in obvious passing situations. Getting pressure is practically the only way this Browns defense can succeed. Their 8.6 yards per attempt allowed without pressure are a league-high, which drops to 5.6 yards per attempt when they generate pressure.

In Week 8, Jackson was pressured on 18 of his 43 dropbacks (41.9%). Nine of those pressures came on the Browns’ 15 man coverage snaps (10 of which were blitzes), including all three of their sacks. Jackson has proven that he can still deliver against pressure if he’s given enough time. Both of his touchdowns in Week 8 game against pressure, and he leads the league in passer rating (98.1), yards per attempt (7.8) and EPA (-3.2) against pressure (his 38.4% success rate is second-highest.)

The Ravens’ success against pressure has started with his offensive line, who have allowed a league-low 7.8% quick pressure rate. From there, Jackson’s passing talent has taken over. He has dominated from inside the pocket with league-highs in passer rating (122.0) and yards per attempt (9.3) as well as the fourth-highest completion percentage (73.0%).

Outside the pocket, Jackson has been absolutely ridiculous. The Ravens’ 3.06-second average time to pressure is the longest in the NFL largely due to Jackson’s ability to evade pressure.

EPA on passes outside the pocket this season, minimum 50 dropbacks

3. Josh Allen — 5.06
2. Matthew Stafford — 8.09
1. Lamar Jackson — 26.04 pic.twitter.com/XeFHNQuXms

— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 31, 2024

Slowing Myles Garrett is always the top priority when facing the Browns, but the Ravens need to devote even more resources to that effort with so many other key defenders sidelined. Garrett’s 80 pressures, 18.9% pressure rate, 0.70-second get off time, and 38 quick pressures rank third or better among all NFL defenders.

Ronnie Stanley has struggled against him in the past, and Roger Rosengarten should have an easy matchup against second-year edge Isaiah McGuire. As a result, Monken’s array of chips should be deployed on the left side to slow down Garrett and keep him from wrecking the game single-handedly.

When Jackson identifies man blitzes pre-snap, he should be looking to pick on the Browns’ backup cornerbacks. Martin Emerson is their only healthy starter – Denzel Ward has been ruled out and Greg Newsome is on injured reserve – so at least one of Bateman or Flowers should draw a favorable matchup.

It’s also an opportunity to get Tylan Wallace involved again. 124 of his 170 receiving yards this year have come against man coverage; though that’s a small sample size, he will still be the Browns’ lowest priority on Saturday. They’ll be expecting Jackson to look for his starting WRs and TEs first, so dialing up a few plays for Wallace could lead to easy yards.

When the Browns Have the Ball

Bait the Middle

Bailey Zappe is getting his first start of the season on Saturday, and he’ll be auditioning for a 2025 roster spot, whether that’s in Cleveland or elsewhere. The Browns will also be rolling with D’onta Foreman and recent Raven John Kelly at running back.

Again, the NFL is a league of Any Given Sunday, so it’s not like the Ravens don’t need to defend the run. But there isn’t much to be said about their strategy against the Browns’ anemic, banged-up run game. Furthermore, the game script will likely dictate a more pass-heavy attack from the Browns, especially after they gashed the Ravens through the air in Week 8.

Baltimore’s current pass defense is night and day compared to that first matchup, with Ar’Darius Washington and Kyle Hamilton playing in more two-high safety looks. That will help take away the deep balls that plagued Baltimore in Week 8, forcing Zappe to do what the rest of Cleveland’s quarterbacks have done this year: throw it short.

The Browns have thrown short passes (0-9 air yards) on 50.9% of their dropbacks (third-highest), including a 73.2% rate of throwing passes short of the sticks (second-highest). Their 67.7% completion percentage, 5.0 yards per attempt, and -54.4 EPA on short passes are among the worst marks in the league.

Taking away the deep ball and forcing the Browns underneath is a simple enough strategy to start, but Orr should mix in disguised coverages to bait Zappe into turnover-worthy throws. The communication and discipline along the back end of the Ravens defense has been much improved with Washington and Hamilton, and they should once again be used as versatile weapons.

The key will be mixing up coverages to deceive Zappe throughout the game. Baltimore’s defense has put several impressive examples of disguised coverages on tape in recent week, with Hamilton and Washington showing pre-snap discipline and post-snap awareness and athleticism to hit their landmarks while keeping their eyes on the quarterback.

Zappe has a slight tendency to look for deep passes down the left sideline in his career, though he has a relatively small sample size. Still, he will likely target Brandon Stephens like so many other quarterbacks over the last two seasons.

Stephens has struggled with penalties this year, and that may be one of the few ways Cleveland can move the ball on Saturday. The Ravens’ 29.9% press rate in Week 8 will have the Browns looking to go vertical and generate explosive plays (or flags), so showing press pre-snap before morphing into Cover 3 will confuse Zappe and allow Stephens to keep his eyes on the quarterback. Hamilton can buzz down from a split-safety alignment to cover the middle of the field, where Zappe will be looking if he has to get rid of the ball quickly.

Orr won’t need to pull out all of his bells and whistles on Saturday, but he should mix in some more complex looks if and when a defensive stop becomes a necessity.

Create Rush Lanes

Zach Orr threw a 41.9% blitz rate at Jameis Winston in Week 8, but only pressured him 25.6% of the time. That kind of reverse split should never be the case, so the pass rush needs a new plan on Saturday, one that has synergy with their coverage scheme.

For example, press-man looks should be combined with blitzes designed to create free rushers. Jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage will create enough time for those plays– either simulated pressures with picks or overload blitzes from the second level – to get home.

Hamilton has dominated the Browns as a blitzer historically, including his Week 8 performances with two pressures and a strip-sack on five pass rushes. He’s gotten pressure off the edge and up the middle in past matchups with Cleveland and should be used to attack once again. Once the Browns are wary of his blitzing, he can drop off the line of scrimmage into coverage, with pressure coming from elsewhere to try to force a turnover.

The Ravens’ use of stunts and twists has also amped up in frequency and effectiveness over the course of the season, with Orr going so far as to line up Michael Pierce on the edge for just the fourth time in his career. Kyle Van Noy has been excellent at finding open paths to the quarterback on those plays, which were conspicuously absent in Week 8 in favor of all-out blitzes.

Those line games should be a big part of Orr’s strategy, especially on passing downs. More movement along the interior will also leave the tackles on an island more often, giving Odafe Oweh a chance to feast against Germain Ifedi. The Browns’ left tackle has allowed a 12.5% pressure rate (second-highest) and a 2.68 average time to pressure (third-quickest) this year.

Oweh wasn’t especially effective in Week 8, but he’ll draw an easier matchup on Saturday. Four of his five games with a 15.0% or better pressure rate have come since Week 10. He’ll have the opportunity for a big game on Saturday.

1-on-1 Matchup: Marlon Humphre vs. Elijah Moor

The Browns won’t have Cedric Tillman or David Njoku on Saturday, who put up 160 combined yards in Week 8, but they will have Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. Jeudy lined up all across the offense on his way to 79 yards, but 32 of Moore’s 49 snaps came in the slot, per Pro Football Focus. Moore finished with eight catches on 12 targets for 85 yards without a single target over 20 yards. Translation: when Zappe is looking underneath, he’ll be trying to find Moore more often than not.

Marlon Humphrey will be tasked with covering Moore out of the slot as he continues a dark horse Defensive Player of the Year campaign. He’s held opposing QBs to a 57.3 passer rating when targeted with six interceptions while operating as the Ravens’ nickel corner for the first time since 2020.

Moore has not done much after the catch this year (or in his career, especially considering his pre-draft billing), and Humphrey is more than happy to close down opposing ballcarriers. He has 23 stops and two forced fumbles this year, but he’s also been flagged for a team-high 11 defensive penalties due to his physical coverage style. Humphrey needs to watch when and where he puts hands on Moore to avoid giving away the free yardage while hunting for the turnover opportunities that have made him so effective this year.

All advanced stats via Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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