Battle Plans: The Blueprint to Beating the Steelers Defense

When the Ravens Have the Ball…

Pick on Personnel

Few teams are as familiar with each other than the Ravens and the Steelers, who are set for a third matchup in two months on Saturday. Todd Monken needs to approach this game like a chess match, drawing on the teams’ first two meetings to predict what the Steelers will do this week.

Pittsburgh knows what Baltimore wants to do: run the ball out of heavy formations to opening up receiving mismatches against base personnel. The Steelers, in turn, will move Minkah Fitzpatrick into the box and run single-high safety shells with frequent man blitzes. They ran single-high safety shells ~80% of the time across the first two matchups, including a 56.0% man blitz rate in Week 16.

Fitzpatrick excelled in Week 16 while playing much closer to the line of scrimmage compared to the rest of the season, holding the Ravens to -9.5 EPA when targeted with two PBUs and an interception. However, he moved back to deep safety in Weeks 17 and 18 once DeShon Elliott was healthy.

The Steelers run the third-lowest rate of disguised coverages (24.0%) in the league, so Jackson should be able to identify and isolate his best matchups pre-snap. He leads the NFL with 9.6 yards per attempt and 35 passing touchdowns against non-disguised coverage, so he will once again need to trust his arm and his playmakers on Saturday.

Fitzpatrick’s alignment will be crucial to identifying the soft spot in the Steelers defense. The Ravens don’t need to avoid him entirely, but getting him isolated against Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on crossing routes will be the way to beat him. Fitzpatrick’s position will also provide information about other matchups, including that of Patrick Queen. Queen is among the bottom-three off-ball linebackers in receptions (50), yards (564), and touchdowns (3) allowed as the nearest defender this year, resulting in the fourth-most EPA allowed (+21.6) when targeted. Jackson has to find ways to isolate Queen in man coverage, whether that be splitting his tight ends into the slot/out wide or motioning Justice Hill out of the backfield.

If the Ravens are using heavy formations as expected, keep an eye out for Charlie Kolar. There’s no denying that he’s primarily a run blocker – the Ravens ran the ball on a league-high 77.1% of his snaps this year – but he’s been extremely efficient as a pass-catcher when targeted. Kolar has caught nine of his 11 targets for 131 yards on 46 receiving snaps, per Pro Football Focus, good for a 23.9% target rate and 2.85 yards per route run. That’s a relatively small sample size, but Kolar will draw the easiest matchups in heavy formations. Even one play from him could make a huge difference.

Rhythm Sans Flowers

It’s unlikely that Zay Flowers plays on Saturday, and the offense is surely prepping to go without him. The Ravens can’t replicate his skill set – especially his uncanny ability to glide away from defenders downfield – but they can adapt his role to the skillset of other players.

Rashod Bateman will be expected to step up in Flowers’ place, but of course, the Steelers will be expecting that, too. Bateman has struggled against Pittsburgh this year, catching just three of his eight targets for 44 yards across the two matchups. Bateman caught zero of his two targets against Joey Porter Jr. in Week 11, both of which occurred in press coverage. Overall, Porter followed Bateman on 73.3% of his snaps in Week 11, including 14 reps in press coverage.

It’s time for Bateman to turn the tables, and oddly, Flowers’ absence may actually help him. Flowers is the Ravens’ most frequent motion man and slot receiver, so Bateman can take some of that over on Saturday. But instead of sending him on Flowers’ usual sweeps and screens, Monken should use motion and alignment to bring out the best of Bateman’s skillset. He is incredible at identifying soft spots in zone defense and using leverage and footwork to separate vs. man. The Ravens have picked on Steelers nickel corner Beanie Bishop this year, so putting Bateman in the slot on obvious passing downs will force the issue against Pittsburgh’s single-high man blitzes. If Porter is following Bateman across the field, Jackson should put him in motion to minimize the effectiveness of press coverage.

As for designed touches, the Ravens can look to Tylan Wallace as well as a returning Justice Hill. Wallace has been reliable when targeted this year, catching 11 of his 12 targets. He’s also proven to be a tough, physical runner with the ball in his hands. Like Kolar, he won’t be a prime focus to the Steelers’ defense, so Jackson should look for him in the underneath game with opportunities for YAC.

Hill will allow the Ravens to re-establish their screen game while also serving as an underneath outlet for Jackson. The Steelers will be looking to collapse on Jackson when he threatens to scramble, and without Flowers, the downfield shot may not always be there. Hill needs to force defenders to decide between keeping track of him or chasing Jackson. Rather than hunt for the big play downfield, Jackson could draw defenders towards him before finding Hill in space for an explosive YAC gain.

When In Doubt, Run It Out

Baltimore’s passing game will likely take a hit without Flowers, but the run game should keep on churning. The Steelers couldn’t stop the read-option game in either matchup this year, so the Ravens should rely on it early and often on Saturday. Derrick Henry has typically been most effective running from under center, but he was extremely efficient out of the shotgun against the Steelers in both games.

Jackson and Henry averaged 6.5 yards per carry in Week 11, but only combined for 17 total rushing attempts. The Ravens rectified that mistake in Week 16, dialing up 33 designed carries between the two.

In the first matchup, the Steelers crashed on Henry and let Jackson run free for 46 yards on his four carries. Henry remained efficient at a 5.0 YPC clip, but the defense switched their focus in the second game. Jackson was contained for 22 yards on his nine carries, but his gravity opened up a ton of space for his running back. Five of Henry’s seven explosive runs came on runs between the tackles; the Steelers flowed towards Jackson and allowed the veteran running back to isolate and evade would-be tacklers in the middle of the field.

The Ravens should especially look to run between the tackles when Steelers defensive lineman Cam Heyward is off the field. Pittsburgh’s yards per carry allowed jumps from 3.7 to 5.1 without Heyward, and they are particularly vulnerable between the tackles.

Steelers between-the-tackles run defense

Heyward is the Steelers’ best interior rusher, so he will have to take some early down snaps off. The Ravens should choose those moments to operate out of the pistol to get the best of both worlds out of their rushing attack. Jackson’s legs remain an ever-present threat, but Henry has more of a runway to gather steam between the tackles where Heyward won’t be present to stop him.

Even if the Steelers load up against the run early, Monken has to stick with it. The Ravens’ late-season success has shown how their rushing game – Henry in particular – gets more efficient with volume. Their explosiveness on the ground means they can even run themselves out of a deficit, if needed.

No defense has proven they can stop this rushing attack if the Ravens stay true to their identity. They have to force the Steelers to summon the physical and mental fortitude to contain Jackson and tackle Henry in the second half of a January playoff game after a grueling 17-game season.

1-on-1 Matchup: Ronnie Stanley vs. Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig

The book is out on T.J. Watt: send constant chips his way and force the Steelers to beat you elsewhere. That “elsewhere” will be on the opposite side of the offensive line, where Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig will match up against Ronnie Stanley.

Highsmith was absent for the first matchup, in which Herbig gave Stanley some trouble, but the Steelers went back to their veteran in Week 16. Highsmith is the better run defender, but he and Herbig are both capable of generating quick pressure off the edge.

With the Ravens giving more help to Roger Rosengarten against Watt, Stanley will need to hold his own in pass protection on the left side. He has to trust his anchor and avoid lunging to lock on too early, especially against Highsmith’s speed-to-power that has beaten Stanley in the past. Dominating each pass-blocking rep is welcome, but Stanley shouldn’t risk a quick loss to do so. All he really has to do is buy his quarterback enough time to make a play; Jackson’s decisiveness and scrambling ability will do the rest.

Herbig is primarily used as a pass-rusher, but when he is on the field on early downs, the Ravens should target him with runs behind Stanley to the left side. He is simply too undersized to hold up against the run on the edge. Highsmith isn’t much bigger, but his speed and understanding of leverage allows him to out-position blockers and occasionally draw holding flags. Stanley’s zone-blocking has long been his bread-and-butter in the run game; when he can’t beat Herbig to the spot, he has to use his size advantage and physically take him out of the play.

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