BOLD PREDICTIONS: Ravens at Bills

Ravens at Bills: Divisional Playoff Game

Following a 28-14 win in last Saturday’s Wild Card vs. Pittsburgh, the Ravens now visit Buffalo in the Divisional round. In Week 4 this season, Baltimore bested the Bills, 35-10, at M&T Bank Stadium behind RB Derrick Henry‘s 199 rushing yards and 2 total TDs. Time for some Ravens vs. Bills predictions.

In 2024, Baltimore’s No. 1 offense (424.9 YPG) became the first unit in NFL history to post at least 4,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in a single season. … The Ravens’ franchise-record 7,224 total yards stand as the third most in NFL single-season history, trailing only the 2011 Saints (7,474) and 2013 Broncos (7,317). … Baltimore (41 & 21) also became the first team in NFL single season history to score 40+ passing TDs & 20+ rushing TDs.

The Ravens ranked No. 1 vs. the run (80.1 YPG allowed) and No. 2 in sacks (54), behind career highs from OLB Kyle Van Noy (12.5) and OLB Odafe Oweh (10). … CB Marlon Humphrey produced an AFC-best 6 INTs (tied for third in the league overall). From Weeks 11-18 (last seven games), the Ravens allowed NFL lows in total yards per game (261.7), net passing yards per game (171.6), yards per play (4.4) and points per game (15.4).

• BETTING LINE: Ravens favored by 1 ½ points; over/under at 51 ½ points
• GAME TIME: 6:30 PM, Sunday, January 19, 2025
• FORECAST at KICKOFF: 17 degrees; winds WNW 4 MPH; 5% chance of light snow with increasing possibilities as the game progresses.
• ON THE CALL: Jim Nantz (PBP); Tony Romo (analyst); Tracey Wolfson (sideline)
• OFFICIATING CREW: Carl Cheffers

So how will it play out on Sunday? Here are your Ravens vs. Bills predictions, c/o RSR.

Tony Lombardi

This Ravens team just feels a little different. The adversity that they’ve been through in 2024 makes them a bit more battle tested even going back to the heartbreaking loss in the AFC Championship Game back in January of 2024. They are grittier and more determined than 2023’s squad. Their insatiable thirst for redemption keeps them grounded – it keeps them focused one play at a time. And their two biggest stars, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are ambassadors for the team’s resolve. It matters.

• Lamar Jackson will be busy on the ground again. He’ll take off 10 times for 80 yards and a touchdown. By air Lamar will throw for 185 yards, completing 14 of 19 for two TDs. One score will belong to Mark Andrews and another to Rashod Bateman.,

• The locomotive will continue to roll. Derrick Henry will carry it 24 times for 160 yards and a touchdown.

• On defense, the Ravens will take down Josh Allen three times with Madubuike, Oweh and Van Noy getting in on the action. Oweh’s will be a crucial strip sack.

• Allen will throw for 260 yards and 2 scores, but the Ravens will deny the Bills twice in the red zone, forcing a couple of field goals. The scoring tosses go to Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. But it won’t be enough.

Thanks in part to winning the turnover battle 2 to 1, the Ravens move on to the next stop in their redemption tour – KAN-SAH-CITY!

Ravens 31 Bills 20

Nick Polinsky

What better matchup could a fan ask for? The two leading MVP candidates will clash this Sunday with everything on the line.

Both teams are much different than they were in Week 4 when these teams faced off in Baltimore. The Ravens had Marcus Williams playing over 90% of snaps at free safety and the strong safety was a true committee with guys like Eddie Jackson. Since then the defense has found stability and from Week 11 on have been one of the top units in the league.

Buffalo on the other hand was missing three key defensive pieces. Taron Johnson, who picked off Lamar Jackson back in the 2020 divisional game for a touchdown, and their two linebackers Terrel Bernard and more notably, Matt Milano.

Though much has changed since their first bout in September, in my eyes Baltimore still has a clear advantage in this one. Derrick Henry is near impossible to contain come the postseason and everything seems to be clicking at the perfect time for Baltimore.

• Derrick Henry runs for over 125 yards on 6.0+ YPC
• Josh Allen will be intercepted for just the second time since Week 13
• I expect Zay Flowers to sit out once again in this one. Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews will all record at least 30 yards.
• Baltimore is once again able to dominate the time of possession battle.

Ravens 31 Bills 20

Kevin McNelis

Last week’s playoff opener for the Ravens was about as good a start as you could’ve asked for, especially in the first half. They dismantled the Steelers, running all over them. Meanwhile, the Bills started their game slowly against the Broncos, but rattled off 31 unanswered to knock off Denver. Now the two teams are set to collide in the brutal Buffalo cold, where someone’s heart will be broken.

— In most cases, you would benefit from blocking early regular season meetings out of your mind when the teams rematch in the playoffs. In this case, though, I feel like it could be indicative of things to come, largely because we know the Ravens want to pound the ball on the ground. Derrick Henry notched close to 200 yards in the first meeting, and I think you’ll see the Ravens give #22 plenty of action. He goes for 100+ and a touchdown.

— With the defensive emphasis on Henry, though, the secondary and linebackers will have to play down toward the box, and while the Bills have some premiere coverage stats in terms of preventing separation, the presence of these Ravens tight ends is going to be too many weapons to go a hat for a hat. Isaiah Likely leads the Ravens in receptions in this game.

— One of the greatest weapons that the Bills have is Josh Allen’s ability to keep a play alive long enough for the deep ball to develop. At one point or another, he’ll escape pressure long enough to pick on Brandon Stephens for a TD catch going 40+ yards. That said, he’ll look for a deep ball again, and Kyle Hamilton baits him into thinking the throw is open just long enough to get over for a pick in a crucial situation.

This game is going to be close. It’s going to be a hard-fought contest, but I feel like the Ravens prevail as long as they stick to their guns. Coaches… PLEASE keep the run going.

Ravens 20 Bills 17

Derek Arnold

I remember an AFC North team headed to Buffalo for a snow game in the divisional round, don’t you? There was no WAY Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals were going to win up there in those elements against Josh Allen’s Bills, right? In that matchup two years ago, Cincy out-rushed the Bills 172-64 and won TOP by nearly 8 minutes in a 27-10 drubbing.

I see no reason why similar won’t happen this time around. Buffalo’s defense is improved, but they want to play base nickel – can they comfortably morph into the type of penetrating multiple front that gives the Ravens running game problems at times? That’s a tall task on a week’s notice. Buffalo gets the most run stuffs for little to no gain in the NFL, while also allowing the most explosive runs. Truly feast or famine. Maybe they can come out and completely change their Zubaz stripes, but it’s far more likely that if they try to do so, someone gets out of position. Which is all it takes to be staring at the back of 22 or 8 as they gallop to paydirt.

As long as Baltimore sticks with King Henry, Lamar, and some Justice Hill, good things will happen.

Ravens 27 Bills 17

Chris Schisler

If you’ve been following me this year, you know it takes a lot for me to pick against the Ravens. The Ravens have the best player on the planet in Lamar Jackson. They have an elite run game and the defense has more or less woken up from whatever that early season nightmare was. Generally, I believe that the only team that truly ever beats the Ravens (in this iteration) is the Ravens. Because I believe Lamar Jackson is the MVP, give me the Ravens.

I think this will be a harder game than it was the last time. The Ravens blew the doors off the Bills in Week 4, but in Buffalo in the playoffs, it’s a much different story. I think this will be a great game and I think Josh Allen is a great quarterback.

I would feel more confident if Zay Flowers was healthy and ready to go. The stakes and the recent postseason history make this game a little nervous. It’s objectively a coin toss. I am sticking with the idea that the only thing that beats the Baltimore Ravens is the Baltimore Ravens and because of that they have every opportunity to win this game.

Ravens 34 Bills 27

Tanner George

The NFL got the matchup it wanted.

The league’s two leading MVP candidates will square off once more in the 2024 season, this time in Orchard Park. Sure, the Ravens won the first one via a 35-10 rout on Sunday Night Football, but Bills will certainly have something to say about the result in Week 4.

Buffalo was missing a few key pieces in that initial matchup, particularly on defense, and they added a solid wide receiver in Amari Cooper through a midseason trade with Cleveland. Coming off of an impressive 31-7 thrashing of the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card round, Josh Allen has his guys rolling.

But I’m still taking Baltimore.

My reasoning here is simple. This game will be frigid, and colder temperatures favor the run game. The Bills have a run defense that finished the regular season in the bottom half of the NFL in yards-per-carry, giving up an average of 4.5 a pop. That’s largely due to a smaller defensive line and coordinator in Bobby Babich that likes to run nickel packages. The Ravens, on the other hand, have the league’s best rushing defense as well as the #1 rushing offense. And I can’t imagine trying to tackle Derrick Henry in freezing temperatures is a pleasant experience. Advantage: Baltimore.

The Bills made a lot of improvements as the season progressed, but so did the Ravens. All credit to Zach Orr for taking what was the league’s worst pass defense and turning it into one of the NFL’s best. And, over the past month or so, Todd Monken has seemingly remembered the three words that can carry his team to a championship: run the ball. Lamar Jackson has been cool in high-stakes games, and he currently holds the NFL’s best passer rating in games with freezing temperatures.

If the Ravens play their game and don’t kill themselves with stupid mistakes, they will win this game, though it will be close. In the MVP debate, much has been made of Josh Allen having zero All Pro teammates. Well, at the end of the day, this is a team game, and I fully expect the better team will come out on top.

Some quick hits…

• Lamar Jackson throws for just 170 yards but adds 60+ on the ground and has a pair of TD passes.
• Derrick Henry rumbles for over 150 yards and a score, including a 40-yarder in the 3rd quarter.
• Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely are steadily involved as Monken opts to go play action in some heavy looks. Andrews will be on the receiving end of a Jackson touchdown throw.
• Kyle Van Noy and Nmadi Madubuike get consistent pressure all night, with each recording a sack
• Brandon Stephens is targeted a lot, and gives up a frustrating 30+ yard touchdown.
• Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey are solid in coverage, with each of them recording a PBU.
• Josh Allen outplays Lamar on the statsheet but still has an up-and-down night, tossing two touchdown passes and rushing for another, although he will throw an ill-advised ball into the hands of Kyle Hamilton.

I think Allen will try to put the team on his back and be Superman for the Bills (perhaps fueled by the flip in MVP odds), but that style of play doesn’t always fly in the postseason.

Ravens 27 Bills 24

Rob Shields

The Ravens head into this game as the Vegas favorite. They are playing their best football of the year. They are the more talented team. That said, the Bills are more talented than people make them out to be and they have the home field and the conditions are going to suck.

These two teams are mirror images of each other. The Week 4 game, at this point, means nothing. Both teams are vastly different.

The only important injury is on the Ravens, as Zay Flowers isn’t likely to play.

This isn’t likely to be a game that is won in the air but losing Zay is important as you can get him the ball with short quick passes and let him use his quickness in space. Not having that vs a mediocre Bills back end hurts although it doesn’t hurt as much as it would if the conditions were more favorable.

Interesting stat on Derrick Henry: He has played in eight playoff games. In four of those games he was under 70 yards and the other four games over 150.  Not that it’s definite that the trend will continue but it’s odd that he has either been “poor” (by his standard) or elite. There has been no in between. The Ravens can’t afford to have the poor Henry show up in this game. He needs 20 or more carries. Lamar needs double digit carries and he needs to take off and keep from being behind the sticks on first and second down.

This game is going to come down to mistakes. Whether it be a turnover, poor coaching decisions, bad punts, penalties, etc… Who makes the fewest mistakes?

Until this iteration of the Ravens shows me they can win a game like this (in the playoffs, in non-ideal conditions), I can’t predict them to win, as much as it pains me. It’s just so hard to trust the coaching staff and the players to not have some kind of a meltdown. Now, perhaps Buffalo will also have one. This isn’t KC where they never beat themselves.  Still, I need to see it first.

Buffalo 20 Ravens 17

Give us your Ravens vs. Bills predictions below!

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