Four Downs: No Snow Showers or Zay Flowers?

While the fans of the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills have been doing some social media sparring, the teams in the most heated AFC Divisional game in years have done a good job not giving the other side bulletin board material. The earlier season game between the AFC powers can be put to the side as the Ravens are facing a healthier and more equipped Bills team in the freezing cold of Buffalo. The Bills are facing a Ravens team that has found a lot of answers (especially defensively) since dismantling them in September. This is a brand new ball game and it gives us the most important four downs of the season. Put on some layers and be ready with the Under Armor, and let’s go for it.

First Down: 8 and 2 Can Control this Game

I know that I said the earlier battle between these two teams can be put to the side for the most part, but Derrick Henry did have 199 yards in that game. The Buffalo Bills always knew that if they were to play the Ravens again they would have to do a better job dealing with the Ravens’ run game. The bad news for the Bills is that Henry is on another one of his special rampages. Henry has had at least 138 yards in his last four games and will be going for his 11th game with 100 rushing yards this season. While he averages a scary 5.9 yards per rushing attempt this year, in this four game stretch he’s averaging 6.5 yards. Henry is having his biggest impact since he turned on the jets in the Week 3 game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Ravens have every intention of making Henry a diabolical problem for Buffalo. The Bills defense is respectable, though they give up an average of 4.5 yards per rushing attempt and 115.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bills will have to commit zealously to their run defense in order to slow down Henry. The Ravens are used to being the bully in these situations and this is their biggest advantage on Sunday.

The complication to the Bills’ commitment to stopping Henry is the wrench Lamar Jackson can throw into the plan. Jackson has rushed for over 60 yards in five of his last six games while throwing 1,058 passing yards and 14 touchdowns in that span. In the Wild Card round the Steelers tried to make Henry public enemy number one and pursued him recklessly. The result was Jackson leading multiple scoring drives primarily using his legs. The Ravens can only hope that the Bills don’t learn from the lessons the Steelers got taught last week. The Ravens ground game and the multidimensional attack Jackson gives it can truly toy with a defense.

If Henry rushes for 150 yards or more the Ravens are going to win this game. The Bills need to get that number closer to 100 to make this a tough one. Remember the Ravens will add another 100 yards to that number with Jackson and Justice Hill. When the Ravens can run the football Jackson can do whatever he wants to. This means long chunks of time with the ball for the Baltimore offense. This means controlling the game and limiting the Bills’ chances.

Second Down: Who Wins When Allen Extends Plays?

The Denver Broncos just saw how frustrating playing Josh Allen can be. One play to keep in mind from the Bills Wild Card round win over Denver was the fourth and one touchdown pass from Allen. The defensive line closed the pocket and Allen rolled out and extended the play. With hands swatting all around him from the defensive line, Allen released a pass to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, a running back who seemingly ran a mile as Allen extended the play longer than the defense could handle. The Broncos did everything right. They got pressure, they played the receivers aggressively and gave Allen no immediate option. They still gave up a big play. Ravens fans know exactly what kind of play this was; it’s something they’ve seen Jackson do time and time again. They say there is no defense for a perfect pass and Allen and Jackson make plays nobody else can even dream of.

The Ravens need to make Allen pay when he holds the football too long. Done right, this comes in the form of sacks, hits, and hurries. Done right this leads to Allen dramatically keeping plays alive and it works against him. The Broncos proved though, this is easier said than done. Out of 60-75 plays, Allen is going to have five or six scramble-drill passes where he tries to make magic happen. The Ravens need to win on some of these plays. It’s very similar to when the Ravens used to have duels with Ben Roethlisberger. The quarterback may be capable of playing hero ball, but the Ravens better make it a long day for Allen if he does this. The pass rush has to be aggressive yet disciplined not to get behind Allen and everyone has to get their hands up.

The biggest concern for the Ravens on these “Holy Allen” plays is penalties. The Ravens have been a penalty-producing machine, especially in the area of pass interference. Expect the Ravens to play a mix of coverages that lean towards zone. The Ravens have to keep things in front of them, play Allen’s eyes, and most importantly understand that their cornerbacks can be liabilities if they have to chase receivers in man coverage on these extended plays. Allen is going to make his plays, but if he is held without a hero ball highlight (or just a couple) the Ravens defense probably won the day.

Third Down: Who are the X-Factors?

The Bills X-Factor is James Cook. He has 16 touchdowns on the ground and another two as a pass catcher this season. While he’s no Derrick Henry at 1,009 rushing yards, he’s a running back who fits the Bills’ offense perfectly. The reason Cook is the X-Factor for Buffalo is simply because if the Ravens can’t make the Bills one-dimensional their job gets exponentially harder against Josh Allen. A good tilting point number for the Bills is 60 yards on the ground for Cook. I don’t think the Bills are going to try to ground and pound the Baltimore defense, but if it’s a consistent element that pops up throughout the game that’s bad for the Ravens. If Cook gets over 60 on the ground and maybe has 20-30 as a pass catcher to top it off, the Bills will be in pretty good shape. If Cook has under 60 yards on the ground and the Bills don’t get a big push from Allen as a ball carrier, Buffalo might be in trouble.

The X-Factor for the Ravens is the offensive line play. If the Ravens play the way they did against the Steelers last week, Jackson and Henry can do their thing. We’ve kind of established that if Jackson and Henry go off, the Bills are in trouble. The last time the Ravens played a postseason game in Buffalo was the 2020 season, and the offensive line didn’t give Jackson a chance. If Jackson is left to his devices and Henry picks up a full head of steam, the numbers they put up will look like video game stats. Ronnie Stanley needs to have his A game. Roger Rosengarten needs to have a performance similar to what he did against the Steelers, holding T.J. Watt to a big bunch of nothing. If the Ravens front five plays a great game, the Ravens will win this game.

Fourth Down: No Snow Showers, but Flowers?

Putting in work! @ZayFlowers pic.twitter.com/iwGUsLqGqs

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 17, 2025

The weather report calling for no precipitation (despite frigid conditions) allows me to have this nice internal rhyme for my fourth down. Zay Flowers is listed as DOUBTFUL. The fact that the Ravens social media team posted a video of him “Putting in work” is a good sign but he hasn’t been practicing. The Ravens need to be ready to win this game with no Zay Flowers.

I think the offense needs to come up with a few more answers than they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 28 points was enough in the Wild Card round but this feels like a game where the Ravens might need to get in the 30s and the Bills are a much more intimidating opponent than the Steelers. The best answer the Ravens have is to lean on the tight end position. The Ravens leaning on their size probably works better for this matchup anyway, as the Bills have a lot of speed. Expect Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely to have five catches each, with Rashod Bateman winning some battles on the outside.

I keep pointing out Tylan Wallace could be due for a big game and I’m not going to stop until he does. Wallace had a very important 21-yard reception where his elusiveness and effort got a very important first down for Baltimore. He makes plays when his name is called. Every Super Bowl run has an unlikely hero, and he’s my pick for that role if the Ravens can indeed win it all. On the fat chance that Flowers can play and be himself, that could be the ultimate X-Factor. For now, the Ravens have to be ready to go without him.

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