Jackson vs. Wilson Round 3 – A Postseason Clash

Monday Morning QB Talk on a Wild Card Wednesday

A Rivalry Meant for the Postseason

Saturday will bring yet another chapter in the heated Ravens-Steelers rivalry. Saturday’s Wild Card matchup will be the 5th time the two teams have met in the postseason since the Ravens’ inception in 1996. Pittsburgh holds the all-time edge 3-1 while the Ravens have the most recent victory, a 30-17 win at Heinz Field in the 2015 AFC Wild Card. The squads split their season series 1-1 with Baltimore picking up a statement 34-17 win during the Week 16 matchup. They enter the playoffs on different streaks, Pittsburgh having dropped their last four, and the Ravens riding high on a four-game winning streak.

Remarkably, Saturday’s game will be just the second time in which Jackson will play his rivals in front of a home crowd since entering the league in 2018. Both teams have a point to prove, but how much of the success relies on the play of the respective quarterbacks?

Jackson’s Chance to Make Another Statement

It’s been a season to remember for 2x MVP Lamar Jackson as the postseason prepares to kick off. Jackson has put up career-high numbers in almost every statistical category including passing yards, passing touchdowns, passer rating, and TD:INT ratio. Lamar’s elite play has led to the Ravens locking up their second straight AFC North title, solidifying a home playoff game.

However, the Steelers being the matchup has fans a little more worried than we’d prefer. It’s tough to play the same team a third time in a season, but splitting the regular season series was huge for the Ravens. The 34-17 victory seemed to have a lot more meaning than just another notch in the win column. Jackson and the Ravens offense showed a swagger they’ve lacked in past games in this rivalry, while the defense haunted Russell Wilson throughout the night. Another efficient night for Jackson will play a large factor in a Ravens victory Saturday night.

Pittsburgh was blitz-heavy in the last matchup, sending the 2nd highest blitz rate of Jackson’s career (68.0%). On such plays, he stayed poised, completing 11 of his 16 pass attempts for a TD and his one interception, according to NextGenStats.

Keeping an eye on S Minkah Fitzpatrick will be important for the Ravens if they expect to find success in the passing game. Fitzpatrick caused problems for Ravens receivers all night, allowing zero receptions on three targets while breaking up two passes and picking up the INT. Keeping routes close to the line of scrimmage, while sprinkling in some intermediate passing concepts could be the path to success in the Ravens passing game this weekend. Derrick Henry is here for a reason, but Jackson has shown the ability to make the needed plays this season with his arm.

If given the time to throw, Jackson could be in for a big day Saturday as the Ravens look to check off the first box on their road to New Orleans.

Limiting Wilson’s Time in the Pocket

The Steelers offense has hit a bit of a slump during their four game-losing streak. Averaging just 14.3 points per game during the stretch, Pittsburgh seems to have lost their identity at the worst possible time. Wilson and the passing game have been severely underwhelming, averaging 174.5 yards per game, to go along with just four touchdowns and two interceptions. Wilson has seen a dip in his EPA and completion percentage over expected while facing the lowest blitz rates of the season in three of his last four games. The lone “successful” game for Wilson during the skid came against the Ravens in their Week 16 matchup. Baltimore gave Wilson his longest time to throw this season, an average of 3.25 seconds. Getting a hand on Wilson and disrupting the short passing game should be a key of emphasis this week for the Ravens defense.

In the previous game in Baltimore, Wilson was very efficient in the short passing game, completing all 10 of his quick pass attempts for 79 yards, and his two TDs according to NextGenStats. Getting pressure on Wilson and blanketing wide receiver George Pickens could cause serious trouble for the Steelers and the success of their offense. Pickens was shadowed on 77.1% of his routes in the team’s loss to the Bengals in Week 18, hauling in just one reception on six targets for 0 or fewer yards for just the third time in his career.

It’ll be interesting to see which Steelers offense comes to play Saturday. Can Wilson and the offense regain their past success against the Ravens?

Or will Mike Tomlin and the Steelers be heading home after yet another Wild Card loss?

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