The 2025 Giants: starting pitching

It all starts with Logan Webb, of course. He’s penciled in for 4+ WAR and if he doesn’t do that then the Giants are in a world of hurt. He’s started 33 games in back-to-back seasons while throwing 200+ innings in both. He gets guys to hit it on the ground, keeps the ball in the yard, and doesn’t give away freebies. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s 28 and signed through 2028.

The next guy in line is Robbie Ray. He’s probably the most important person on this list! The Giants need something from Ray. They need length. He needs to start lots of games and throw lots of innings. He made 32 starts in both 2021 (193 IP) and 2022 (189 IP) before his surgery. He’s 33 now and won’t likely top those numbers ever again but he should be healthy and able to pitch a full season. FanGraphs projects him for 28 starts and 161 IP with a 3.95 ERA (his career mark is 3.98). That’s about 2 WAR. Ray is a high-K pitcher but struggles a bit with the long ball. If he can keep his walks down he can stay in games and give the Giants some quality innings.

Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks fill the next two spots. Both are hard to project. Harrison is only 23. He was one of the top lefty prospects in MLB when he made his debut. We saw some flashes of that talent in an up-and-down year for the youngster (24 starts, 4.56 ERA). He gave up too many hits and too many long balls but he has the strikeout stuff to succeed. With more experience and maturity he has a good chance to evolve into a top starter. There’s lots of upside with Harrison. Hicks suffered a Tale of Two Seasons last year. He was very effective as a starter early on, then struggled badly and was used in relief. He’s the perfect swingman—think Yusmeiro Petit—but it seems guys don’t like that role. Hicks threw a career-high 109-2/3 IP in 2024. Can we expect him to push that up to 150? Hard to know.

So it is easy to see why the Giants pursued Corbin Burnes and ultimately signed Justin Verlander. Last year the starters didn’t get it done and the bullpen got over-worked. They need innings! Lots more innings from the rotation.

The Giants have a pool of guys who could have filled the fifth starter spot and may ultimately do that before the season is out. Hayden Birdsong is the obvious leading candidate—he had 16 starts last year and showed some real potential. Keaton Winn had 12 starts and Mason Black had 8 starts. There’s Landen Roupp and Tristan Beck in the mix. There are the three young Carsons in the high minors: Ragsdale, Seymour, and Whisenhunt. It feels like there is a lot of pitching talent in the organization right now and that bodes well for the future.

–M.C.