At The Break
The 2025 Giants (52-45, .536) find themselves six games behind the Dodgers and a half-game behind the Padres. There are three Wild Card spots allotted to the NL and the Giants are a half-game behind that bunch. The Brewers and the Mets have the top two seeds right now. It will be hard for three NL West clubs to get in to the post-season. The Cardinals and Reds aren’t far behind, either.
The team ended April with a 19-12 record. They had a nice opening to the season scoring 142 runs against 119 allowed in the 31 games. Since that high point they’ve been a .500 club (33-33).
FanGraphs projects the Giants to go 33-32 in their final 65 games for an 85-77 finish (tied with the Padres!). Currently the Giants score 4.11 runs per game and that’s projected to go up a bit (4.28). The pitching, currently allowing 3.94 rpg, is projected to regress a bit (4.16). 85-77 would be their best record since 2021 but might not be enough for the playoffs.
Buster Posey took a big swing in the off-season to land Willy Adames and took an even bigger swing last month to get Rafael Devers. On one hand, the team is winning. On the other, neither player is contributing close to what was expected from them. Devers is injured. Is he hurt bad enough for the nuclear option? That is shut him down, get him fixed, and have him healthy for 2026? They did that with Robbie Ray after all—he was on the shelf when they acquired him. They were patient and now that he’s fully healthy it’s paying off. He’s kicked ass all season.
We’ll find out soon enough whether or not Devers can help in the stretch run. They could use another arm or two, especially a lefty reliever, and it wouldn’t hurt to pick up a right-handed OF bat. Unless you think Luis Matos can play that role the rest of the way. It doesn’t look like they’ll get any help from Bryce Eldridge although we might see Carson Whisenhunt. Otherwise all the youth has already been promoted to the big squad.
They open the second half in Toronto on Friday afternoon (4:07 Pacific). The Blue Jays are a good team and lead the AL East by two games. It looks like Verlander-Ray-Webb for the weekend series.
Go Giants!
–M.C.
Source: http://raisingmattcain.blogspot.com/2025/07/at-break.html
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