Hot/Cold Map: Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

Last week, the Ravens lost in heartbreaking fashion to a top AFC team for the second straight season in Week 1.  Now they come home to a bottom AFC team, at least on paper, for the second straight season.  Last time it was the Raiders, led by Gardner Minshew, storming back in the fourth quarter after being shut down for the majority of the game.  One can only hope that history does not repeat itself, because this is a mismatch.

We have only one regular season game’s worth of game data to go off of, so the quality of play from any one player is volatile.  Anything can still happen in this game.  That said, the big names for the Browns showed up against the Bengals, so this week’s map looks fairly typical:

Browns Offense against Ravens Defense

The Browns played 76 snaps on offense against the Bengals.  The majority of these snaps were played in 12 personnel, with David Njoku playing 64 snaps and Harold Fannin Jr playing 55.  The WR combined to play an average of 2.31 snaps per.  Running backs rotated between Jerome Ford on early snaps (41) and Dylan Sampson on third down (33).  There wasn’t much variety shown against Cincinnati.

Joe Flacco performed admirably in the first game of his age 40 season.  He completed 68.9% of his passes for an average per attempt of 6.4.  Both of his interceptions were relatively on target and bounced off the receiver’s hands.  Speaking of those receivers, Flacco only threw two passes all game beyond 20 yards, and starters Cedric Tillman and Jerry Jeudy were modest at best with their targets.  The passing game was more effective through their tight ends and backs, particularly with Sampson and Fannin, who combined to catch 15 of their 17 targets for 127 yards.  That’s reliable, but not explosive.  Flacco was under pressure for 37.5% of his snaps, despite only being blitzed 12.5% of the time by the Bengals defense.

So did they do better running the ball?  No, they did worse.  They averaged 2.0 yards per carry on 24 attempts.  The Browns have an usual OL in that both of their top players, by far, are their two guards, and that has been the case for some time.  RT Jack Conklin can be very effective, but has a lot of trouble staying healthy – he left early in the Cincy game and was replaced by Cornelius Lucas.  Conklin has been limited in practice this week as well, so this is worth monitoring.  LT Dawand Jones had a miserable game against, presumably, Trey Hendrickson.  Ultimately if the Ravens defense plays like they’re supposed to, FOR SIXTY MINUTES, the Browns will have trouble scoring 20 points on them.

Browns Defense against Ravens Offense

Cleveland’s defense played a great game against Joe Burrow and Friends.  They held the Bengals to 141 total yards and just 24 minutes of possession.  We are used to the Bengals starting seasons slowly, but that is superlative.  The Browns played 52 total snaps, using a variety of formations, and seven players played at least 80% of them:  linemen Myles Garrett and Mason Graham, linebacker Carson Schwesinger, and their starting secondary of Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Ronnie Hickman and Grant Delpit.

The DL up front gave the Bengals a lot of problems.  Myles Garrett, as expected, had a big game, netting three straight sacks of Burrow in one particular possession.  Isaiah McGuire also had a dominant game against the run and pass.  Like the Browns, the Bengals were shut down in the run game, averaging just 2.0 ypc.  This could be a major problem for the right side of the Ravens OL, which looked pretty bad in Week 1.

The star of the Browns defense was rookie Schwesinger, who was good in all phases of the game, from run defense to allowing a just a 56.3 passer rating when targeted in coverage.  Devin Bush, playing next to him for 39 snaps, had an uncharacteristically good game.  This might mean Schwesinger is the type that lifts others around him.  That is again bad news for the Ravens.

The secondary held the great Ja’Marr Chase to 2-of-5 for 26 yards, and Tee Higgins to 3-of-4 for 33 yards.  If they can do that, they can shut down the Ravens receivers.  Based on their Week 1 performance it looks like there’s no weakness to exploit, but it’s hard to say because of the reputation the Bengals have of not bringing their A game in Week 1.  The best bet is probably to wear them down in typical Ravens style with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson; that would open up the passing game.

Conclusion

As if there weren’t enough similarities between all these games, the Browns are having kicker problems just like the Bills were, except that the Bills brought Matt Prater off the couch to clinch the game last week.  The Browns lost last week because of bad kicking and a couple tipped-ball interceptions.  I don’t believe the Ravens are going to hang 40 on this defense, but they should still score enough to win comfortably.  It’s all about the turnovers, the penalties, and the dumb plays, as it always is with Baltimore.

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