Hot/Cold Map: Ravens vs. Detroit Lions

The Ravens are 1-1 after two games which in hindsight went about as expected; a tough loss to another top team, and a double digit win against a bottom feeder.  Baltimore gets to stay home now to host one of the NFC favorites on Monday Night Football.  This is the second of a string of prime time games against prime time opponents.

Now that we’re two games into the season, we have trends we can barely begin to see.  It’s really still too early, but one thing that’s already starting to set in is injuries.  Both of these teams are on the relatively healthy side, while other teams like the Dolphins are reeling at 0-3 (losing to the Bills Thursday night) with the most players on IR/PUP in the league, and their season all but over.

Lions Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Lions, based on just two games, operate out of 11 personnel on exactly 2/3 of their snaps, which is 13^th most in the league.  Their EPA out of this formation is 11.93, 7^th in the league.  This means they’re most dangerous in a 3WR set – what is now the base offense in the NFL.  They are far from alone, as the top six EPA through two games, among all formations, are all out of 11 personnel, and those teams are a combined 12-0.  Some (Tampa Bay, 75.78%) run more 11 personnel than others (Buffalo, 59.22%) but when you dominate in 3WR sets, you win.

Detroit’s offense had an uncharacteristically bad game in Week 1 against the Packers.  They responded by steamrolling the Bears in Week 2.  This is evident in their analytics, starting with QB Jared Goff, who followed a miserable performance with a stellar one.  The averages look great: his  completion percentage (80.6%) is tops in the NFL and his YPA (8.3) is sixth, and he is tied with Lamar Jackson for 1^st in the NFL in passing touchdowns (6) to just one interception.  It goes to show you how volatile stats can be early on.

The Lions have arguably the best set of skill position players in the league.  They are led by a five-headed monster of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery.  This gives Goff and new OC John Morton the luxury of finding the weak spot of any defense and exploiting it.  St. Brown works both outside and in the slot, as does Williams.  Roughly half the snaps Gibbs and Montgomery play in are run and half are pass.  The team is designed to attack you from every angle with any particular player.  This is why they are who they are.  Even key reserves Isaac TeSlaa and Brock Wright are playing well.

Given this problem, how did the Packers stuff their offense?  They got through the offensive line, particularly against the run.  Detroit’s OL is led by bookend tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell – Sewell is perhaps the best RT in all of football right now, but Decker is struggling a bit in run blocking and so is their C Graham Glasgow.  The weak spot is their young pair of guards, Mahogany and Ratledge, but it isn’t a stretch to say they’ll improve drastically as the season moves along.  This is where the bumps and bruises of week-to-week injuries creep in. The Ravens must win the trench battle, and  Nnamdi Madubuike is out with a neck injury.  I therefore think the Lions hang 30, maybe 40, points on the Ravens.

Lions Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Detroit’s defense is both more vulnerable on paper and more banged up than their offense.  They run a traditional 4-3 base into a 4-2 nickel.  They are a throwback on the defensive side of the ball; last season they ran more base defense than anyone in the league (44%).  That doesn’t mean the defense is simple, however.  Under former DC Aaron Glenn and current DC Kelvin Sheppard they are designed to be able to run the coverages whether in base or nickel.  They also often move a LB to the line to create an odd front.  This means they’re reliant on players than can do multiple things, like the Ravens are.

Their defense starts up front with All Pro Aidan Hutchinson, who appears to be 100%.  Marcus Davenport is doubtful to play across from him, but his replacement Al-Quadin Muhammad has had a good start to the season.  The matchups between these two and Ravens tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten are going to be crucial to the Ravens success.  On the inside, D.J. Reader may be showing signs of age and injury, and if that is the case, he and rookie Tyleik Williams must be exploited.  This could be a big Derrick Henry game, but we’ll see how many bodies the Lions throw at him.

Mike LB Jack Campbell is also banged up but is expected to play.  Combined with SAM Derrick Barnes and WILL Alex Anzalone it is a formidable group, but if Campbell’s mobility is limited it would be a good idea to go after him in the passing game.  The team has an elite pair of starting safeties in Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, but a struggling pair of outside CB in Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed.  Provided their pass rush can be kept out of Jackson’s grill, there will be opportunities to throw down the field along the sidelines, but he should be careful throwing deep middle.

Conclusion

Signs are pointing to another shootout like the Buffalo game was.  That said, the last time these two teams met was two seasons ago when the Ravens destroyed the Lions 38-6, a surprising result at the time.  Again this game is being played in Baltimore, but I have a hard time thinking the Lions are going to lay down again.  Their HC Dan Campbell and most of their best players remember that game.  It’s worth saying that even in the Buffalo game, the Ravens built a sizeable lead before blowing it.  I will cautiously conclude that the same will happen here, except the lead won’t be blown in two out of three weeks.

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