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OTL: “Fighter Math” Doesn’t Apply to the NFL

Tuesday, September 23, 2025 9:49
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There’s a phrase in boxing and mixed martial arts called “fighter math” that played into how some of us perceived the Monday Night Football matchup going into it. When two pugilists are scheduled to fight and they’ve had a common opponent in the past, “fighter math” happens in situations where one fighter might say, “Oh, well, I’ve beaten this fighter whose beaten you, so I should be able to beat you.” It’s an oversimplified formula, which is why it’s so often a disastrous assumption.

Fresh off the Browns stunning the Packers, there was some temptation to think that, because the Packers had made easy work of the Lions in Week 1, fighter math might apply. After all, the Ravens just put it on the Browns last week, and factoring in the additional history of the Ravens in primetime against NFC opponents, this looked like a winnable fight.

This morning, the Ravens are peeling themselves off the canvas.

The box score may not look it, but if this was a fight, we wouldn’t have needed to go to the judge’s scorecards for a decision. The Ravens got whooped in most facets of this game in a TKO-style beatdown. There’s no sugar-coating it: the Lions came into their house and proved they were the better team with the more prepared coaching staff, and made fewer mistakes. Don’t get me wrong, Baltimore had their chances to win it, including when they took a lead early in the second half, but even when the offense hit a rhythm, the defense did hardly anything to help them.

Yes, Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike’s absence contributed to the defense’s struggles, but you absolutely cannot get beaten up in the trenches the way they have these first few weeks. They’ve given up more yardage than any other team, they’re tied for the most points allowed, and they have three sacks as a team total. After seeing how easy it was for the Lions to march down the field running the defense into the ground on their long scoring drives, this felt like a losing battle even while they were in it.

Sam LaPorta had all kinds of room over the middle of the field, and it seemed like every time he caught the ball, it was to convert a third down. Amon-Ra St. Brown beat the tar out of Marlon Humphrey all game, to the point that I was begging Zach Orr to send him on the CB blitz again just so Kyle Hamilton might take a crack at #14 instead. But as it so often happens with the Ravens, despite all their shortcomings, they still had a chance to win the game as their offense had kept them afloat. Down by four, they got possession back with about 8:30 to go in regulation. In my mind, I’m spinning machinations of a long drive to kill the clock and punch it into the end zone to win it.

Yeah, that didn’t happen.

For the third week in a row, Derrick Henry put the ball on the ground, killing this potential game-winning drive before it even started. One of the NFL’s most dependable players year in and year out isn’t impervious to the effects of whatever is going on in Baltimore right now. This is the first time in a long time that I can remember this team looking this flawed, and the players see it.

On the one hand, I appreciate Lamar sticking with the mentality that things can be fixed this early in the season. On the other, it feels like so many of the chances to adjust in ways we’ve been clamoring for may have already gone by, and this team needs to figure it out in a hurry, or they might see another contender snatch the title shot they’ve been fighting for.

The post OTL: “Fighter Math” Doesn’t Apply to the NFL appeared first on Russell Street Report.


Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/09/23/out-to-lunch/fighter-math/


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