ESPN analyst reveals why Notre Dame can beat USC

After dropping two potentially resume-defining games in the opening two weeks, Notre Dame has gotten back on track. The Fighting Irish dipped almost out of the AP Top 25, but they’re back up to 13 now. A win would put them back in the playoff picture in all likelihood. A loss would all but end their chances. Unfortunately, 20th-ranked USC is no cakewalk. However, there are two big reasons the Irish can pull out a season-saving victory this weekend.

Why Notre Dame can win huge USC game

USC is a very good team led by a very good quarterback. Jayden Maiava is the nation’s best signal-caller in terms of Total QBR. He’s been spectacular, but Notre Dame might finally be equipped to handle a top QB. They can seemingly finally put in a decent performance on defense. That was missing in the first two weeks.

“In a rivalry based on long-term momentum swings, Notre Dame has held the advantage for most of the past 15 years, but this one appears relatively even on paper. Since losing its first two games by a combined four points — both to current top-five teams (Miami and Texas A&M) — Notre Dame has won four games by an average of 30,” ESPN analyst Bill Connelly wrote. “The defense had big-play issues early on but has allowed 27 total points in the past three weeks and should keep improving now that corner Leonard Moore is healthy again.”

Defense is only one half of the game. In Notre Dame’s case, it’s often been the bad half this year. The offense has not, and that’s another reason the Irish might come away with a win. “Quarterback CJ Carr has been absolutely dynamite. Despite being a redshirt freshman, and despite substandard performance from the offensive line — which has allowed quite a few negative run plays and merely average pressure numbers — he’s 11th in Total QBR. On third-and-7 or more, Notre Dame ranks second nationally with a 44% conversion rate. Carr’s ceiling is spectacularly high,” Connelly wrote.

Carr has been excellent, and the Marcus Freeman defense is rounding into form. If those two things remain true, then the Irish will come away with a win. It’ll also be a significant boost to their resume. And then, barring a late-season collapse (zero ranked opponents await), they will return to the CFP after a title-game berth last year. The metrics seem to favor an Irish win this weekend despite the opponent being quite good.

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