Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. Bears

Here we are.  The bye week is behind us, and the Ravens have done whatever it is they could think of to set their team straight.  This game, while one of the least important games on the schedule in a vacuum, is as close to a must-win game as you can get without literally being one.  Only one team in history – the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals – made the playoffs after starting a season 1-6.  Four times as many that, is four – including said Bengals, have done it after starting 1-5.  So, it’s a matter of how historic a rally is neaded for the Ravens to even have a chance to finally get over the playoff hump.

The Bears stand in the way.  They are 4-2, having won four straight games, and are rated the 10^th best team in the NFL according to PFF.  For reference, the Ravens are 29^th, so it’s not like they’ve been unlucky.  The Bears have an offense ranked 10^th in points and 12^th in yards, and they are gaining momentum.  Their defense is only ranked 25^th in both categories.  They have some notable injuries headed into this game, including a cluster that will be discussed below.

Bears Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Bears play in 11 personnel a modest 57.22% of the time, good for 18^th in the NFL.  Their EPA out of this personnel is a fairly good 11.39.  Most of the rest is played in 12 (32.35%, 9^th most in the NFL).  Both their 12 and 13 personnel packages earn negative EPA, and they will notably be down TE1 Cole Kmet in this game.  They’ve only gone 4-wide at WR for 18 snaps this season, which seems like a small number, except none of the NFL is playing much 01 or 10 right now.  Curious trend, but without a FB on the roster, and with injuries at both TE and RB, we may see the Bears spread the Ravens defense out.

The strength of their offense is their running game.  Led by a resurgent D’Andre Swift, they are 7^th in attempts and 8^th in yards, though they only have six rushing TD.  Swift killed both the Commanders and Saints in Weeks 6-7 to the tune of 232 combined yards and a score.  His forte this season has been explosive runs, to a tune of 12.36% of his attempts (3^rd in the NFL among primary backs).  That said, he’s only been okay in yards after contact, so the key to slowing him down is for Ravens defenders to get their hands on him.  His backup Kyle Monangai has pretty close to the same statistics per rush, and Caleb Williams will take off and scramble from time to time.

Their recent win streak has less to do with said QB Williams, whose last three games produced six turnovers to only two TD and a completion percentage under 60%.  He’s only hit 5 of 19 attempts deep and outside and isn’t performing well while throwing to the right side.  Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore are a fine pair of boundary receivers that are being hampered a bit by Caleb’s inaccuracy.  Odunze has over half of the team’s receiving TD with five, so whoever CB1 is should be on him.  Without Kmet at TE, the Bears are going to have to rely on rookie Colston Loveland.  Loveland is quite the capable receiver but cannot pass block at an NFL level yet, so he’ll essentially be WR3 and, hopefully, Kyle Hamilton‘s primary assignment.

You can see on the map that Chicago is really getting going behind their LG Joe Thuney and C Drew Dalman.  This is expected.  They’re the two best OL on the team.  If the Bears are going to beat the Ravens defense, the biggest reason will be running through that gap, and incidentally keeping Swift in to pass block where he has been superb.

It’s an interesting match up that could go in a myriad of ways.  I could see this offense be shut down by a Ravens defense that finally figures out how to play like they’re used to… but I will say they still score a bit over 20 points.

Bears Defense vs. Ravens Offense

We’re back to a team that prefers to use a 4-2 nickel with a 4-3 base on early downs and short distances.  This defense has lived off making splash plays – they are 1^st in the league in both interceptions (11) and overall turnovers (16).  They are very much live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword, because they are last in the league in passing TD given up (15) and next to last in yards per rushing attempt (5.3).  Here is where Lamar Jackson would have come into play, but unfortunately we heard early this afternoon that he’s been downgraded to OUT. So, Tyler Huntley it is.

Former All Pro Grady Jarrett is expected back for a DL that is really only Montez Sweat.  Their run defense struggles start here, with nobody else doing particularly well, and Jarrett is beginning to show his age.  Their pass rush however is bolstered by Gervon Dexter Sr on the inside, and presumably Jarrett.  The strong side DE Dayo Odeyingbo is exploitable.  This is where a key guy who is returning, FB Patrick Ricard, can pave the way for Derrick Henry (and perhaps Huntley) to have a big game.  Just… stop fumbling.  Again the Bears are first in forcing turnovers.

T.J. Edwards might be the best inside linebacker in the NFL right now, since Fred Warner is out for the season.  He is playing out of his mind in coverage, allowing just 5.6 yards per reception targeting him.  He is flanked by Tremaine Edmunds, who has been their best run defender, and for run downs they bring in Noah Sewell.  I would advise the Ravens to shy away from throwing in Edwards’ direction, however, the other two (and Sewell in particular) are worse in coverage.

This secondary should simply be beaten by the Ravens WR and TE.  They were already down their top CB Jaylon Johnson since week 2, and now they’re down his replacement CB1 Tyrique Stevenson (who was having a very good season) as well as starting NB Kyler Gordon.  Their best remaining DB, Jaquan Brisker, is a run stuffing blitzer and not a cover safety.  Basically all they have is Kevin Byard and a bunch of replacement level players.  If the Ravens had Jackson, I’d say they should score a lot of points against this team. Since it will be Huntley, I will cautiously say Baltimore also scores in the 20s, and it will finish a one-score game.

Conclusion

The Bears are just good enough to require being taken seriously, but they have some distinct strengths and flaws.  They’re a better running team than throwing team, but they get points out of the passing game.  They give up a lot of yards on defense, but force a ton of turnovers.  The Ravens, mostly healthy again – save for their most important player – match up pretty well with the Bears.

None of this matters if they still can’t function after all these weeks.  Can they line up correctly on defense?  Can they not fall down without blocking anyone?  Can they get their plays in on time?  It makes it nearly impossible to analyze this stuff and it’s really irritating!

Anyway, the Ravens are favorites in this game for a reason (the line is down to 2), so if they play inspired football, they should get to 2-5 – barely – and keep their season alive – barely.

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