Chicago Cubs and Shota Imanaga might still reunite after all

The Chicago Cubs are looking at the loss of two major players in their roster this offseason– and they don’t seem all that concerned about it.

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Kyle Tucker, of course, is the biggest name to be lost. The four-time All-Star right fielder is expected to get a contract in the neighborhood of 10-11 years at around $400 million. The Cubs, despite some face-saving banter to the contrary, will likely pass on that kind of contractual entanglement.

The other big name is lefty starter Shota Imanaga, whose three-year, $57 million option was recently declined by the Cubs. The Japanese star then, in turn, turned down his $15 million player option.

That somewhat unexpected turn of events made headlines as the first big story of the offseason and sent media into a tizzy as they speculated where the now-free agent pitcher may land.

Chicago Cubs and Shota Imanaga split?

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Then, the Cubs made Imanaga a $22 million qualifying offer.

The offer, which was also made to Tucker, was initially seen as a way to ensure draft pick compensation from whichever team signing him as a free agent. The secondary effect of attaching the qualifying offer to him, however, was to make Imanaga a slightly less appealing free agent pickup.

The 32-year-old is coming off an uneven sophomore year where an early-season hamstring injury hobbled his pre-All-Star break performance and inconsistency plagued his second-half run. By the end of the season, the 2024 All-Star and Rookie of the Year candidate was being touched up considerably, especially by the long ball. He posted a 6.51 ERA in September and then an 8.10 ERA in the playoffs, where manager Craig Counsell would eventually become reluctant to use him.

The market for Imanaga

Would another team be willing to sign someone in Imanaga’s position to a multi-year deal while sacrificing a draft pick, banking on just one year of past excellence behind him? Would they be willing to do so, even with pitching metrics showing that he’s lost one full mph on his fastball and is becoming increasingly vulnerable to hard contact?

But even with the Cubs apparently souring on Imanaga and the feeling swirling that Imanaga may be souring on the Cubs, there’s still a significant chance that he will stay in Chicago for at least one more season.

The team had expressed faith in his ability to think, adapt, and get things together for a rebound. However, they also have a deep faith in metrics and everything on paper says that Imanaga is trending downward.

But a one-year deal, even with a raise to $22 million, might be the kind of risk the team would take. For the frugal Cubs ownership, it might be significantly more attractive than going out and signing a mid-rotation free agent replacement who will demand a contract of three-plus years.

Meanwhile, for Imanaga, a multi-year deal might be hard to find and it might be impossible to find any team paying him more than the Cubs’ qualifying offer for a single season.

Forced into a marriage of convenience?

So, could Imanaga and the Cubs be forced into a 2026 marriage of convenience? More and more, signs are pointing to “yes.”

Tim Britton of The Athletic, in a recent mailbag column, answered a reader’s question about Imanaga’s value and likely contract. The analyst would make the case for Imanaga staying put in Chicago.

Per Britton:

“I eventually projected Shota Imanaga at just the one-year, $22 million mark for the qualifying offer because accepting that makes some sense for him. He’s going to be 32, which means a team is unlikely to hand him more than a three-year deal, and I don’t see a team giving him a contract that long with a healthy AAV while also sacrificing a draft pick. The two-year, $35 million number you suggest is in the right ballpark, and at that point, Imanaga should probably just take the qualifying offer.”

Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation backed up Britton’s take:

“I have a hard time seeing anything more than a three-year deal for Shōta Imanaga right now, and I also have a very hard time seeing the AAV on such a deal being enough to justify him passing up on 1/$22M. Keep in mind, Imanaga already turned down his player option, which would’ve been two years and $30.5 million, with an opt out in the middle. He did that either thinking that he could do better in free agency, OR that he preferred the Qualifying Offer. In other words, the angle all along might’ve just been to get 1/$22M from the Cubs.”

At any rate, Imanaga has until November 18 to make up his mind.

There’s also the distinct possibility that he could turn down the qualifying offer, feel out the free agent market, and then come back to the Cubs on a restructured deal if nothing out there is to his liking. Some have even opined that all of this drama has been nothing more than public play-acting by the Cubs to rework the structure of their deal with the pitcher.

Everyone will know soon enough if Imanaga stays or goes.

The post Chicago Cubs and Shota Imanaga might still reunite after all appeared first on ChiCitySports.

Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-shota-imanaga-free-agent-2026