Chicago Cubs: Expect disappointing free agent offseason with 2027 MLB lockout looming

The Chicago Cubs finished the 2025 season, maybe, two or three players short of where they needed to be for a shot at a championship.

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As things turned out, their strained and stressed pitching staff limped their way to Game Five of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers where the on-again, off-again offense let them down one last time before elimination.

Few really thought that Chicago had a shot at a World Series bid, but getting so relatively close with such a clear picture of what they need to get there should provide a blueprint for the team’s plans this offseason.

Uncertainty in the face of an MLB lockout

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Unfortunately, MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement ends after the coming season and a lockout is widely expected for 2027. Thoughts are that this coming labor dispute will be a long and ugly one, too, as ownership and labor are already digging in for a war over a possible play to implement a salary cap.

And the Cubs, ever budget-minded and risk-averse, will likely act accordingly this year, reluctant to entertain the idea of multi-year, big-money free agent deals with the possibility of losing all (or most) of 2027.

This means that the Cubs will probably skirt around the fringes of free agency, looking to pick up as many one-year deals as possible to fill holes for the 2026 season. It also means, by the way, that there’s almost no hope of re-signing right fielder Kyle Tucker, who could land a contract somewhere in the 10-year, $400 million neighborhood.

The Chicago Cubs’ 2026 spending plans revealed?

The team already tipped their hand just days following the World Series by declining the 3-year extension of Shota Imanaga. Some will point out that Cubs chariman Tom Ricketts and President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, over the last few years, have built the team around this idea that baseball may lose a full year in the near future. With the exception of Dansby Swanson, they have no big-money contracts extended past 2026. Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Carson Kelly, and Reese McGuire are all set to become free agents after the 2026 season.

“The way we’ve structuralized contracts, I think has been shorter, and I think that’s been by design,” Hoyer said in his season wrap-up press conference. “We have the opportunity to use those dollars really wisely to continue to get better.”

Hoyer also talked about the specter of the impending labor dispute and what that will mean to his team and to baseball in general

“The truth of the matter is, we don’t know what the future holds in that regard, and certainly those decisions are going to happen well above me, and those conversations will happen for a long time,” Hoyer said. “So I think you can pay attention to it. I think it’s something that you have to consider.

“But we don’t know what’s going to happen, and there’s real uncertainty there for us and for 29 other teams.”

Realistic Cubs free agent pitching targets

With that in mind, fans should rule out the acquisition of Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, Alex Bregman or any other high-end free agent this offseason. If the Cubs were reluctant to entertain deals with talent from the deep end of the free agent talent pool before, they’re bound to entirely shy away from doing so this year (as well as next year).

So, what will the Cubs do to fortify their starting rotation and rebuild a bullpen that will be almost entirely lost via free agency?

Expect a wave of one-year deals to plug holes as temporary stopgaps until the labor uncertainty is resolved.

Uber-veteran Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer could be pursued to take the spot of an outgoing Shota Imanaga. At 42 and 41, respectively, nobody will offer them more than one one-year deal at a time and either could be had for roughly what Imanaga would’ve made this coming season. The Cubs could explore similar one-year deals with Lucas Giolito or Tyler Mahle, who might currently represent too much risk for anything beyond a single season contract. They could also go after Americans Anthony Kay and Foster Griffin, who may be looking to come back to the states after successful runs in Japan, as well as Cody Ponce, who had a breakthrough 2025 season as a starter in Korea.

Like it or not, the Cubs’ biggest pitching addition this coming year may be the May/June return of Justin Steele following elbow surgery.

As for the bullpen, Hoyer may be set on building from scratch, going with his usual strategy of acquiring castoffs and rehab projects while depending on some good fortune from within the system to make up the relief corps. The labor uncertainty, though, may scare some teams away from multi-year deals for bullpen arms. In that case, the Cubs could swoop in on guys like Luke Weaver, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, or Tyler Rogers if these relievers had to settle on one-year contracts. The uncertain market could possibly even open the door for a one-year return of 2025 Cubs Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Michael Soroka, or Aaron Civale, although Brad Keller might be lost to a more daring buyer this offseason.

All in all, 2027 looms large for all of MLB. For the cautious Cubs, though, it might be the exact opposite of a call to arms. It may be a call to a frustratingly conservative offseason.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-free-agent-pitching-2026