Chicago Cubs: Stakes and risks in qualifying offers made to Kyle Tucker and Shota Imanaga

The Chicago Cubs are handling some of the messy financial stuff before diving into the more baseball-oriented concerns later in the offseason.

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Specifically, this has meant trading away Andrew Kittredge (and his $9 million option), declining the option of Justin Turner, and making the choice to hold on to Colin Rea via restructured deal. The biggest stories in the Cubs’ effort to tie up financial loose ends, of course, have to deal with Kyle Tucker and Shota Imanaga.

Chicago Cubs make qualifying offers to Tucker and Imanaga

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On Thursday, Chicago made Tucker and Imanaga qualifying offers of $22.025 for one-year apiece in anticipation of losing both via free agency this offseason.

At this point, the qualifying offers seem to be mere procedural measures to ensure draft pick compensation when both are signed elsewhere. In the Cubs’ particular case as a team under the luxury tax threshold, per MLB’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, they would receive the second-highest draft pick from the team signing either Tucker or Imanaga, likely in the range of a 75th overall pick.

Making the qualifying offer to Tucker was pretty much a straight-up acknowledgment that they would be losing the four-time All-Star and were looking to at least gain something from the loss. With a deal in the neighborhood of 10-years for around $400 million possibly awaiting him, there’s zero chance that he would take just over $22 million for one year.

The complicated case of Shota Imanaga

The situation with Imanaga, however, is not so cut and dried.

The baseball world was taken a bit by surprise earlier in the week when the Cubs opted to decline their option on Imanaga, which would’ve extended the lefty starter for three more additional years at $57 million. In turn, the Japanese star then declined his player option of $15 million for 2026 in the next-to-last step in becoming a full-on free agent.

However, there’s legitimate reason to believe that Imanaga could actually accept the team’s qualifying offer and gamble on a turnaround from the a second half of 2025 which saw him post a home run-ridden 4.70 ERA and get crushed in the postseason. He could then walk into 2027 in a much better position to command a more lucrative contract. In that case, the Cubs would be on the hook for 2026, paying Imanaga the $22 million and change.

On the other hand, the 32-year-old could turn down the qualifying offer and gamble on landing a good 3-4 year deal this winter. He would hope to bank on the shine from his strong 2024 rookie season and solid work in his injury-hampered first part of 2025.

The influence of a likely 2027 MLB lockout

Insecurity regarding a possible lockout in 2027 will weigh heavily on Imanaga’s decision, as it likely did on the decisions made by the Cubs front office. From a player’s standpoint, gambling on a one-year deal doesn’t make a whole lot of sense if there’s a spending freeze after 2026, in anticipation of at least a partially lost 2027. From a team’s perspective, entering into a multi-year deal right now also doesn’t make a lot of sense ahead of 2027, especially when it comes to someone like Imanaga whose numbers have trended deeply downward.

Since the qualifying offer system was initiated in 2012, only 14 of the 144 players receiving one have actually accepted.

All in all, attaching qualifying offers to both Tucker and Imanaga is smart business for a Cubs team that feels it will lose both players this offseason.

Of course, one can debate whether Tucker and Imanaga should be let go at all, though. But that’s a topic for another day.

Players have until November 18 to decide on their qualifying offer.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-kyle-tucker-shota-imanaga-qualifying-offer