A Look at AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios

Here we are.  Down to the final five games of the season and officially all four teams in the AFC North are still alive for the division crown. Though the Browns would need a few miracles, there is a very realistic path for each of the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals to win the division.  Also, it looks like the division winner will be the only playoff team from the North, as one of these teams receiving a wild card looks less and less likely.

First, off here are the Standings and the remaining five games for the all three teams:

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-6)

Week 14:  vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 15:  at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 16:  vs. New England Patriots

Week 17:  at Green Bay Packers

Week 18:  at Pittsburgh Steelers

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-6)

Week 14:  at Baltimore Ravens

Week 15:  vs. Miami Dolphins

Week 16:  at Detroit Lions

Week 17:  at Cleveland Browns

Week 18:  vs. Baltimore Ravens

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-8)

Week 14:  at Buffalo Bills

Week 15:  vs. Baltimore Ravens

Week 16:  at Miami Dolphins

Week 17:  vs. Arizona Cardinals

Week 18:  vs. Cleveland Browns

Next, we need to look at the tiebreaker situation…

1^st Tiebreaker is head-to-head record (in the case of a three team tie, it is best win-loss-tie percentage among the three teams).

2^nd Tiebreaker is division record.

3^rd Tiebreaker is record in COMMON games.

Ravens

Head to head:  Ravens are 0-1 vs. Bengals and have yet to play Steelers.

Division record:  Ravens are 2-1 with games left vs. Steelers, at Bengals, and at Steelers.

COMMON GAMES:  The best way to look at this is to look at “uncommon games” and a worse record in uncommon games is better.  Ravens are 0-3 in uncommon games with none remaining.  They would win this tiebreak over Steelers or Bengals if it came to it.

STEELERS

Head to head:  Steelers are 1-1 vs. Bengals and have yet to play Ravens.

Division record:  Steelers are 2-1 with games left at Ravens, at Browns, and vs. Ravens.

COMMON GAMES:  Steelers are 1-2 in “uncommon games” with none remaining

BENGALS

Head to head:  Bengals are 1-1 vs. Steelers and 1-0 vs. Ravens with one game remaining vs. Ravens.

Division record:  Bengals are 3-1 with games left vs. Ravens and vs. Browns.

COMMON GAMES:  Bengals are 1-1 with a game left vs. the Arizona Cardinals (uncommon).

Path to AFCN Crown BENGALS

First, the Bengals need to win out to finish 9-8 for any realistic shot (they have a tiny chance to get in at 8-9 but I will break that down later if it is a possibility).

At 9-8, here is how the Bengals can get in:

— Ravens and Steelers lose two more games each, and Steelers lose one more division game (Ravens x2, Browns). In this scenario, the Bengals would win head to head (vs. Ravens) and division tiebreaker vs. Steelers.

— Ravens lose two more games including vs. Cincy (Bengals would hold head to head over Ravens with sweep), Steelers lose three more games.

STEELERS

The Steelers control their destiny.  If they win out and go 11-6, they win the division.

At 10-7, they have several possible ways they could get in:

— If they sweep the Ravens, they are guaranteed to get in at 10-7.

— If they split with the Ravens, and the Ravens lose any other game to fall to 8 losses, they win the division.

At 9-8, they still have a possibility of getting in.  Their scenarios to get in at 9-8 include

— Sweep the Ravens, and Bengals drop any game to fall to nine losses.

— Beat the Browns, split with the Ravens (dropping other game to Miami or Detroit), Ravens lose to Bengals, Bengals lose any other game.

— Ravens lose three more games, Bengals lose one more game causing them to win division outright.

— Sweep Ravens, beat the Browns (lose to Dolphins and Lions). In this scenario, if Bengals win out, the Steelers and Bengals would both have a 5-1 division record, but the Steelers would win the “common games” tiebreaker over Cincy.

RAVENS

Like the Steelers, the Ravens control their destiny.  If they win out and go 11-6, they win the division.

At 10-7, the Ravens would also win the division.  They would have a least a split with the Steelers, and they would win the tiebreaker vs. Steelers via division record (or head to head if they swept them).

At 9-8, they still have a possibility of getting in.  Their scenarios to get in at 9-8 include:

— Split with Steelers. Beat the Bengals.  Steelers lose another game to fall to eight losses.  Ravens would win tiebreaker via common games in this scenario (or division record if Steelers lose to Browns).

— Sweep Steelers, lose to Bengals. Bengals lose another game to fall to nine losses.  Ravens would win head-to-head tiebreaker over Steelers.

— Split with the Steelers, lose to Bengals. Bengals lose another game to fall to nine losses.  Steelers lose to Browns in addition to Ravens, to fall to 9-8.  Ravens would win tiebreaker with Steelers via common games tiebreaker.

— Ravens get swept by Steelers but win all other games. Steelers lose to Dolphins, Lions, and Browns to fall to 8-9 (Ravens beat Cincy in this scenario to drop them to nine losses).

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