Complete AFC Playoff Race Breakdown

Four weeks remain in the season, and it’s shaping up to be a great battle for playoff positioning in the AFC.  As of now, 12 teams are still alive for the playoffs.  Only the Jets, Browns, Raiders, and Titans have been eliminated.  In this edition, I will analyze where each of those 12 teams stand, what their remaining schedule is, and what they would need to get into the playoffs, including breaking down several tiebreaker scenarios.  I have listed the 12 teams in order of their current playoff standings.

For official NFL tiebreaking procedures, please see link here

The most fascinating division race is the AFC South with the Jaguars, Texans, and Colts all separated by only 1 games in the standings, and many possibilities for tiebreakers still out there, so I will break down the current tiebreaker standings first:

AFC South

• First tiebreaker is head to head. (if 3 teams, it is their record among the 3 teams)
  1. Jaguars split with Texans. They beat Colts first time and play at Colts week 17.
  2. Texans split with Jaguars. They won at Colts and host Colts week 18.
  3. Colts have lost to both Jaguars and Texans. They play vs. Jaguars week 17 and at Texans week 18.
• Second tiebreaker is division record
  1. Jaguars are 3-1 with games remaining at Colts and vs. Titans
  2. Texans are 4-1 with a game remaining vs. Colts
  3. Colts are 2-2 with games remaining vs. Jaguars and at Texans
• Third tiebreaker is record in “common games” The easiest way to break this down is to look at “uncommon games” (excluding h2h) with a worse record in “uncommon games” being better.
  1. Jaguars, Texans, and Colts all tie this tiebreaker.
• Fourth tiebreaker is record in conference games. The easiest way to look at this is to look at the number of losses to NFC teams (more losses to NFC teams mean less to AFC teams).
  1. Jaguars have 2 NFC losses (Seahawks, Rams) with no NFC games remaining.
  2. Texans have 3 NFC losses (Rams, Buccaneers, and Seahawks) with Cardinals remaining.
  3. Colts have 1 NFC loss (Rams) with Seahawks and 49ers remaining.
• Strength of Victory
  1. I will break this one down at a later date if it appears it might come into play.

DENVER BRONCOS (11-2), Current 1 seed

Remaining schedule:  vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers

Division tiebreaker outlook:  The Chargers are the only other team that could win the division.  The Chargers are 2 games back.  The Chargers won the first matchup, so if the Chargers beat the Broncos week 18, the Chargers would win the division.  So, if the Chargers are within 1 game of the Broncos going into week 18, that game will be for the division title.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  The Broncos play the Jaguars head to head week 16.  The only other playoff contender outside the division they played is the Houston Texans, which they won.  Both of their losses are against AFC teams, although they still have one game vs. NFC left (Packers week 15).  If both Patriots and Broncos win out, the Broncos would win the tiebreaker via common games tiebreaker.

Notes/Analysis:  Broncos are in good position, but have a very tough schedule over the next 4 weeks. (especially compared to the Patriots).   If they win out, they get 1 seed.  If they go 3-1 in last 4 games, they will be guaranteed to win division, and be no worse than the 2 seed.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-2), Current 2 seed

Remaining schedule:  vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins

Division tiebreaker outlook:  Patriots won the first game vs. the Bills, which means if they beat the Bills week 15, they will win the division (will have tiebreaker and will be 3 games up on Bills).  Even if they lose against the Bills, they will hold the tiebreaker (division record) if they beat both the Jets and Dolphins weeks 17 and 18 (thanks to the Bills loss to the Dolphins week 10).

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  The Patriots have not played any of the other AFC contenders (outside their division)  All of their losses (and remaining games) are within the AFC, so they will most likely not win any tiebreakers for seeding.

Notes/Analysis:  Patriots control their own destiny and are in the driver’s seat to win the division.  They will need some help from the Broncos to snag the 1 seed, but they have a much easier schedule than the Broncos, so it is definitely possible.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-4), Current 3 seed

Remaining schedule:  Jets, at Broncos, at Colts, Titans

Division tiebreaker outlook:  See above for details.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  They win head to head tiebreaker over Chargers.  They have 2 NFC losses.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-6), Current 4 seed

Remaining schedule:  Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, Ravens

Division tiebreaker outlook:  They won the first game against Ravens, so if they win week 18, they would win head to head tiebreaker.  If they lose to the Ravens week 18, they could still win tiebreaker over Ravens if:  Ravens lose to Bengals week 15 and Steelers beat Browns week 17.  If the Steelers collapse and fall to 8-9 and the Bengals win out to finish 8-9, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker (via division record)

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  They win head to head vs. Patriots and Colts.  They lose head to head vs. Chargers and Bills.  They play Dolphins week 15.  They have 3 NFC losses and still have Lions left.

Notes/Analysis:  Steelers are in the driver’s seat for the AFC North.  If they are able to beat Ravens week 18, they are almost certainly in.  The Ravens have a tough schedule so if they can win their next 3 games, the Ravens may be eliminated even before that game.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-4), Current 5 seed (1^st Wildcard)

Remaining schedule:  at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, at Broncos

Division tiebreaker outlook:  They can win head to head vs. Broncos if they beat Broncos week 18.  If they end up tied with Chiefs, the Chargers will win that tiebreaker (division record or common games).

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  Chargers hold head to head over Dolphins and Steelers.  They lose head to head vs. Jaguars.  They play Texans week 17.

Notes/Analysis:  The Chargers are in good shape to get a wildcard, but have a tough remaining schedule so nothing is guaranteed.  They have a shot to win the division if they run the table and the Broncos drop another game (in addition to their head to head matchup week 18).

BUFFALO BILLS (9-4), Current 6 seed (2^nd Wildcard)

Remaining schedule:  at Patriots, at Browns, Eagles, Jets.

Division tiebreaker outlook:  If they lose to the Patriots week 15, the Patriots clinch division.  To win a tiebreaker vs. Patriots, they would need to run the table and have Patriots lose to either the Jets or Dolphins week 17 or 18.  In order to fall into a tie with the Dolphins, they would need to lose at least 3 more games, which would include at least 1 division game.  That would mean that they would most likely lose the division record tiebreaker (or if Bills lost all remaining games – including 2 division games – and Dolphins won all but Patriots games, the Dolphins would still hold the tiebreaker via division record.)

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  Bills hold head to head vs. Ravens, Chiefs, and Steelers.  All of their losses are to AFC teams (they have Eagles left), so that does not put them in a good spot for tiebreakers if it goes to conference record.

Notes/Analysis:  The Bills have an uphill battle and will need significant help from the Patriots to win the division.  However, they are in pretty good shape for a wildcard spot.

HOUSTON TEXANS (8-5), Current 7 seed (3^rd Wildcard)

Remaining schedule:  Cardinals, Raiders, at Chargers, Colts

Division tiebreaker outlook:  See above for details.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  They hold head to head vs. Ravens, Bills, and Chiefs.  They lose head to head to Broncos.  They have 3 NFC losses (with Cardinals remaining).

Notes/Analysis:  Texans are in good shape to make the playoffs and still have a legitimate shot at the division.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-5), Current 8^th seed *Out of Playoffs*

Remaining schedule:  at Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, at Texans

Division tiebreaker outlook:  See above for details.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  They hold head to head vs. Dolphins, Broncos, and Chargers.  They lose head to head vs. Steelers and Chiefs.

Notes/Analysis:  They’re still alive, but hanging on by a thread, especially after the devastating injury to QB Daniel Jones.  I don’t have faith in Phillip Rivers coming in to save the day.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-7), Current 9^th seed *Out of Playoffs*

Remaining schedule:  at Bengals, Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers.

Division tiebreaker outlook:  If Ravens lose to Steelers week 18, they lose head to head to Steelers.  If they lose to Bengals, they will lose division record tiebreaker to Steelers unless Steelers lose to Browns week 17.  Realistically, the Ravens need to win both road games at Bengals week 15 and at Steelers week 18 to have a shot at the division.  For further breakdown, see my previous article:

So You’re Telling Me There’s a Chance? Ravens Path to the Playoffs…

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  The Ravens wildcard chances are miniscule at this point.  They lose head to head to Texans, Bills, and Chiefs.   They do hold head to head vs. Dolphins.  They do have 2 NFC losses (with Packers remaining).

Notes/Analysis:  Ravens miraculously still control their own destiny.  If they win out, they will win the division.  If they win 3 of 4 including beating Bengals week 15 and Steelers week 18, they will win the division if the Steelers drop another game.  It’s hard to have any confidence in this team, but they’re not quite dead yet.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-7), Current 10^th seed *Out of Playoffs*

Remaining schedule:  Chargers, at Titans, Broncos, at Raiders

Division tiebreaker outlook:  They can’t catch the Broncos, but division tiebreaker still matters because division tiebreaker is used first in wildcard ties, so if they tie with LAC, the division tiebreaker is in play.  Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the Chargers would win that tiebreaker.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  Chiefs hold head to head vs. Ravens and Colts.  They lose head to head to Jaguars and Bills.  They have 2 NFC losses.

Notes/Analysis:  Believe it or not, the Chiefs playoff hopes are slim.  They need to run the table and get significant help.  The loss vs. the Texans might have been the nail in the coffin.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-7), Current 11^th seed *Out of Playoffs*

Remaining schedule:  at Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers, at Patriots

Division tiebreaker outlook:  They can’t catch Patriots, but division tiebreaker still matters because division tiebreaker is used first in wildcard ties, so if they tie with Bills, the division tiebreaker is in play.  They would win the tiebreaker with the Bills.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  Dolphins lose head to head to Colts and Ravens.  They have 1 NFC loss (with Buccaneers remaining)

Notes/Analysis:  Dolphins playoff hopes are very slim.  They need to run the table and get a LOT of help.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-9), Current 12^th seed *Out of Playoffs*

Remaining schedule:  Ravens, at Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns

Division tiebreaker outlook:  If they run the table, they will win tiebreakers over Steelers and Ravens.

Tiebreaker outlook vs. other teams:  Not applicable.  The only way for the Bengals to sneak into the playoffs is to win the division.

Notes/Analysis:  The Bengals have exactly ONE path to the division.  They need to run the table, have the Ravens lose two more games (one is to them) and the Steelers to lose three more games.

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