Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. New England Patriots

With just three games left in the regular season, the path for the birds in purple is clear.  The only way they’re making the playoffs is via taking the AFC North.  They cannot make a Wild Card at 9-8, and if they go 10-7, they beat Pittsburgh for the 4 seed.  Most scenarios have the Week 18 clash between the Ravens and Steelers as winner-take-all, but the Ravens must stay within one game of the Steelers over the next two weeks.  The Ravens therefore all but need to defeat the New England Patriots.  It would be the biggest win of their season.

The Patriots are arriving in Baltimore off a heartbreaking loss to the Bills, one where they ran for 246 yards and held a 24-7 lead at halftime before giving up four touchdowns to Buffalo in the second half.  With a head coach like Mike Vrabel, you can bet they’ll be psyched and angry for their Sunday Night Football match.  They are showing weaknesses due to injuries recently, which we will go over.  They still have an offense 7^th in points and 6^th in yards, and a defense 6^th in both categories heading into the weekend.  Overall PFF ranks them 5^th in the NFL, which is slightly worse than their 11-3 record, primarily because of their easy schedule.  This is a tough opponent regardless.

Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Patriots only use 11 personnel on 49.71% of their snaps, which is 25^th in the NFL.  That isn’t AFC North low, but it shows they like to use multiple TE and RB.  It is not a new thing in Foxboro.  Their skill player usage is so evenly spread out that I listed thirteen players in the offense map instead of the usual twelve.  This team, under Belichick alums Vrabel and OC Josh McDaniels, operates much like their mentor’s teams.  It doesn’t matter who gets the highlight, as long as the job gets done.

That said, you can’t take the spotlight off the QB position.  Drake Maye is ascending towards the top echelon of NFL QBs.  He leads the league with a 70.9% completion rate as well as 8.7 yards per attempt.  Their EPA in pass sets is extremely high, with 0.29 per pass in 11 personnel, 0.25 per pass in 12 personnel, and even 0.30 per pass in 13 personnel (where they go 3 TE and only 1 WR).  Although they have a very good pair of RB in TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, their running game is not nearly as efficient (sorry Buffalo, but your run defense is bad).  They aren’t going to abandon the run however, as they are 7^th in the NFL is rushing attempts compared to 26^th in passing attempts.  They use the run to set up the pass, so if the Ravens don’t stop the run, they are in for a rough evening.

Eight different players have at least 200 yards receving:  Henderson and Stevenson, tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper, and wideouts Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas.  None of them have over 750 yards (27 NFL receivers do).  Diggs leads the team and is their default WR1 primarily working from the slot.  This is to say that the depth of the Ravens defense will be tested, in both the LB and DB level.  With Teddye Buchanan out and several other defenders banged up, they are going to need the pass rush to get home.

On that topic, losing LT Will Campbell is bad for the Patriots.  The map shows you where the offense needs to be exploited, and that is on the left side of the line.  The right side is solid with Mike Onwenu and Morgan Moses.  If the Ravens can figure out how to create pressure with four rushers like they did last week against Cincinnati, their defense has a chance to shut down the Patriots.  The trio of Travis Jones, Dre’Mont Jones and Tavius Robinson have emerged as a threat recently in this aspect, and they need to build on that.  Drake Maye must be made uncomfortable.

I will hesitantly say that the Patriots will move the ball effectively against the Ravens, but the Ravens will tighten up in the red zone, leading to a lot of field goals and around 20 points scored.

Patriots Defense vs. Ravens Offense

DC Terrell Williams unfortunately has prostate cancer, prompting him to leave the team early in the season and relinquish DC duties to LB coach Zak Kuhr.  Here’s to his recovery.

With all the coaching turnover (including a new head coach), the defense responded very well; you may even say they’ve played over their head.  In very Patriots fashion, there isn’t much star power on the team, just people who do their job.  They are adept at shutting down 11 personnel packages, by far the most common in the league (which is why I begin the previous section with it).  That however, is not the Ravens offense.

If there is a place on this defense to point out, it’s their pair of outside CB, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III.  The Ravens don’t have very good boundary receivers, and it’s fair to say they will be shut down for most of the game.  Zay Flowers, DeAndre Hopkins, and whoever else will have to work inside; or, as they are apt to do, the Ravens will make use of their TE and RB in the passing game.  FS Jaylinn Hawkins is actually their highest rated starter on the season by PFF but he’s cooled off in coverage.  The bigger issue for New England is that leading tackler Robert Spillane is ruled out, which could leave the middle of the field – Lamar Jackson‘s strong suit as a passer – open for business.

The coverage defense is one thing.  What everyone around the league is looking at is the Patriots run defense without DT Milton Williams.  In addition to missing Williams and Spillane in the middle, starting DT Christian Barmore has been ruled out.  These injuries leave a blue scar in the middle of what was a defense with no weak links.  The Patriots have given up a positive EPA against the run in seven consecutive games, and it finally caught up to them against the Bills, who ran for 168 yards and 2 TD.  The Ravens have to establish the run, or at least the threat of the run.  I wouldn’t mind seeing some play action passes on first down, but Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell both need their touches.

Limiting the pass rush is the last piece of the puzzle.  K’Lavon Chaisson has 2 sacks and 5 QB hits in his last 7 games.  If Ronnie Stanley doesn’t play and this happens to be the first game Carson Vinson starts, it’s a fair match up to draw.  Harold Landry on the other side is questionable but expected to play.  We all know the trials and tribulations of the interior Ravens O-Line, so there’s nothing to be said except they need to play better.

I came away from this analysis feeling better about the Ravens chances on offense.  They have to be able to run the ball effectively, and they may just do that, even against eight-man fronts.  If Todd Monken decides to go shotgun all game and Lamar holds onto the ball for extended plays, there will be turnovers incoming.  I don’t believe the Ravens can do what the Bills did against this defense, so they cannot dig themselves a hole.  We’ll see another tight game in the 20s.

Conclusion

Both teams are going to want this game badly.  It won’t be easy, but it’s winnable for the Ravens.  Coaching and game plan are going to be paramount as both of these teams currently have big strengths as well as big deficiencies.  I really hope the referees stay relatively quiet.  I feel it’ll be a one score game in the fourth quarter, and something bizarre will happen to determine the winner, because it’s been that kind of year.  My lean is the Patriots reduce the Ravens to 3-6 at home.

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