OTL: Fun with ESPN’s Playoff Machine

Happy Tuesday, Flock! I’ll be trying to fill Kevin’s big shoes today. To that end, let’s take a look at the ol’ playoff machine, shall we?

ESPN Playoff Machine

Head over to that link, and you can click different results at the top of the page to see which scenarios result in which playoff seedings.

Unfortunately, due to some early season hiccups and the unforgivable fumble against Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the Ravens find themselves in the unenviable position of being unable to afford another loss, lest they be forced to rely on outside help.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that, as Ravens fans, we want to make the playoffs. I know many are hoping that missing the postseason forces some needed change at The Castle; that’s a discussion for another day. This year’s AFC playoffs will not require winning in Arrowhead, nor facing Pat Mahomes and Andy Reid at all! For both Baltimore and Buffalo, it’s a bit of a “if not now, when?” situation.

But first, you have to get in. Here’s how that could shake out.

Clearest Path: Win Out

The best way for the Ravens to grab the AFC’s fourth seed will be to win the division. There are a few ways they can accomplish that. The most straightforward: win out.

If the Ravens win their next three games, they’re in over the Steelers. Simple as that.

Murkier: A Little Help

Now, the Ravens don’t necessarily HAVE to win their next three. In the following scenario, they’ll also get in:

Win vs. New England OR at Green Bay, win at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh loses at Detroit OR at Cleveland

This one gets interesting because Pittsburgh plays at Detroit on Sunday afternoon, while the Ravens host New England on Sunday night, so we’ll know the Steelers’ result ahead of time.

If the Steelers win that game (they’re currently touchdown underdogs), then New England becomes basically a must-win. If the Pats win, the Ravens would then have the pressure of needing to win at Lambeau (slightly less daunting following the Micah Parsons injury) while also requiring help from Cleveland, as Pittsburgh could clinch the division with a win in Week 17.

In the more likely scenario where Detroit beats Pittsburgh, then the Ravens can afford to lose to the Pats, as long as they don’t ALSO lose to the Packers.

Winning the home game is obviously the path of least resistance there.

The Week 17 “Bye”

For my money, this is the most intriguing scenario…

Week 16:

Steelers lose at Detroit

Ravens win vs. New England

In this case, Week 17 becomes meaningless for both the Ravens and Steelers. The teams could effectively treat their matchups in Green Bay and Cleveland as preseason contests. Whether they both win, both lose, or split, it doesn’t matter. All that matters is Week 18.

Both squads could rest banged-up starters with the hopes of treating the Week 18 game as the playoff matchup it effectively becomes. Unfortunately for us, Pittsburgh will likely have T.J. Watt back by then.

Wild Card?

I’ve been clicking around the playoff machine for a bit, and I don’t see any way to get Baltimore in as a wild card. The Texans already have nine wins and the tiebreaker, which is the most the Ravens can hope for without beating Pittsburgh (which would get them the division at nine wins).

If the Steelers and Ravens both finish with 10 wins, Pittsburgh can get the wild card in a few scenarios. That’s not in the cards for the purple and black, however.

Taking it all a step further, it looks like the most likely opponent for the Ravens in the Wild Card game would be Jim Harbaugh’s Los Angeles Chargers. Another Harbowl. Yippee.

Feel free to head over to the playoff machine and check my work. For now, we’re all Lions fans at 4:25 on Sunday.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2025/12/16/out-to-lunch/otl-fun-with-espns-playoff-machine/